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Minimal food insecurity will prevail in the coming months

  • Food Security Outlook Update
  • Mozambique
  • June 2013
Minimal food insecurity will prevail in the coming months

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  • Key Messages
  • Current Situation
  • Updated Assumptions
  • Projected Outcomes through September 2013
  • Key Messages
    • Across the country current food security conditions remained relatively stable for the majority of households and have improved in some instances thanks to widespread food availability and access from ongoing food harvests. Overall, current acute food insecurity outcomes are better when compared to this time last year.

    • In most of the country, from June to September the food insecurity outcomes are expected to remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1). However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity outcomes, in the presence of assistance, will still continue in Chókwe district and surrounding areas, including the southern areas of Guijá and Chibuto districts that were affected by the January floods. 

    • In general, food prices are expected to continue to fall as supplies continue flowing into the markets across the country. A normal seasonal trend is therefore expected in all monitored markets and maize prices are expected to continue to be above the five-year average in most southern markets and in parts of the central zone. 


    Current Situation

    Food security and access will be generally satisfactory through September. It is expected that the food security outcomes for the majority of poor and very poor rural households across the country will remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through September as a result of the continuing first season harvests and as food from the second season becomes available. Current acute food insecurity outcomes are comparatively better than outcomes during this time last year.

    • In the presence of assistance, areas affected by the January floods are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2). This includes Chókwe district and surrounding areas, including the southern areas of Guijá and Chibuto districts in the south of the Limpopo Basin.
    • While the national production estimates are yet to be released, qualitative assessments indicate a favorable outlook this year in areas where the rains were good and consistent.  Overall, production in the country is classified as better than last year. In addition, there was higher than normal second cropping season production in areas where this was possible due to adequate moisture and seed supplies. The green harvest for the second season has started in these areas.
    • Most of the emergency response needs are being covered, but assistance is still required to support medium to long-term household livelihood recovery. The unmet medium-term needs will likely undermine the ability of households to fully recover from this year’s shock, including the preparation of the upcoming cropping season.  In the meantime, the food security cluster is leading food security assessments in districts affect by this year’s floods in order to ascertain current food security at the household level, projected food insecurity over the next twelve months, and to recommend appropriate medium and long term interventions.  The assessment report will be released in early July. 
    • Between March and May, maize prices in all monitored markets went down as a result of the increasing availability of maize from the 2012/13 cropping season. In general the behavior of all staple food prices has been stable and consistent with the seasonal trend. Presently, food prices are favorable for market dependent consumers though they remain above the five-year average in most southern markets and parts of the central region, including the areas of concern. 
    • The latest Agriculture Market Information System (SIMA) bulletin, published in the week of June 12, indicates that the flow of food commodities is taking place according to the normal pattern throughout the country. In the southern region, the major markets have been receiving maize mainly from producers in the central region areas, including Gorongosa district in Sofala Province. The major reference market in the area of concern, Chókwe market, is receiving maize from the neighboring district of Massingir.

    Updated Assumptions

    The assumptions used to develop the most likely scenario for the April to September 2013 Outlook period are still valid. The overall projected food security outcomes for the outlook period are not expected to change. A full discussion of the scenario is available in the Mozambique April Food Security Outlook.


    Projected Outcomes through September 2013
    • Based on the assumptions used to develop the most likely scenario through September 2013, the majority of the households across the country will face Minimal food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1) for the entire scenario period and they will meet their basic food needs through the consumption of their own production and complemented by market purchases.

    Lower Limpopo Baixa Non Irrigation Scheme livelihood zone in Gaza Province (parts of Chokwe, Guija, Chibuto, Bilene and Xai-Xai districts):

    • Currently, poorer households are relying on their own crop production from the ongoing harvest, including market purchases, while employing a variety of typical coping mechanisms and livelihood strategies such as labor exchange, brewing, and the sale of seasonal alcoholic beverages. From July to September 2013, the overall food security situation is expected to improve greatly in view of the onset of the second season harvest in some areas, which has been considered above normal. However, targeted humanitarian assistance may still be required during the second half of the outlook period for recovery activities.  In the presence of assistance, the poor households are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September. 
    Figures Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    This Food Security Outlook Update provides an analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography over the next six months. Learn more here.

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