Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists amid escalating conflict in northern Mozambique

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist across conflict-affected districts of Cabo Delgado and Nampula through May 2026. Ongoing violence by non-state armed groups (NSAGs), particularly in Memba District, displaced approximately 108,000 people between November 10-17, with many fleeing to Eráti District. Displaced households are facing inadequate shelter and sanitation, limited access to safe water, and inadequate healthcare. Some households have begun returning home with government support, but assistance remains limited. As of December 11, at least 12,580 individuals had returned to their villages and received only a five-day food ration.
• In southern and central semi-arid areas, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to continue through March 2026, with some improvement anticipated in April and May as the main harvest begins. Food insecurity is expected to worsen with the lean season through March as household stocks diminish and purchasing power declines. While the 2025/26 rainy season began on time in most areas, southern regions experienced delays of up to 20 days, expected to slightly delay the upcoming harvests. Rainfall was above average in much of the central and northern regions from October to mid-December, but below average in the south.
• As of November, the Mozambique Food Security Cluster (FSC) partners reported that food assistance has reached 361,200 people, covering nearly 15 percent of the target population. Over the next six months, 115 million USD is needed to implement planned activities. Without additional funding, the number of beneficiaries in Cabo Delgado may drop from 420,000 to 265,000 by March 2026. With the available Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) resources and Joint Response Plan (JRP), WFP aims to assist 93,500 individuals in Nampula.
• Maize grain prices increased by 6-14 percent from October to November 2025, following seasonal trends. In comparison to the five-year average, maize prices in November were 57 percent higher in the southern region, reducing the purchasing power of poor households. Prices remained stable in the central region and were 34 percent lower in the northern region. When compared to last year, maize prices were relatively stable in the south but were 30 to 35 percent lower in the central and northern regions. 

This report provides an update to the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 31, 2025. 

Conflict: Attacks by non-state armed groups (NSAGs) continue to expand beyond Cabo Delgado, increasingly affecting Nampula Province and driving new displacements (Figure 1). 

• In November 2025, intensified attacks in the Memba District, Nampula Province, resulted in one of the largest waves of internal displacement in recent months. The recent attacks between November 10-17 displaced approximately 108,000 people, with nearly 82,700 people fleeing to neighboring Eráti District.
• Some IDPs moved between host communities in search of improved security and access to services, as the majority face severe humanitarian conditions marked by inadequate shelter, poor sanitation, limited access to safe water, and insufficient health services.
• While some households have started returning to their place of origin with government support to restore security, humanitarian assistance remains limited. As of December 11, at least 12,580 returnees had received only a five-day food ration from the government, supplemented by private sector and community support.
• Active cholera outbreaks are ongoing in Memba and Eráti districts of Nampula Province as of December. The onset of the rainy and cyclone season is exacerbating the risk of further transmission amid poor water and sanitation conditions. The cholera outbreak may worsen the impacts of the conflict in these two districts, where sanitation is already poor due to a large influx of IDPs. The government and its partners are implementing measures to contain the spread of cholera, which include a range of emergency interventions. Key actions include providing medical care, reconstructing water points, rehabilitating wells, installing taps for safe water supply, and building emergency latrines. Additionally, provincial authorities are working to transfer IDPs to better-equipped locations, such as relocating individuals from Eráti to Memba. Authorities are also prepositioning food and other support.
• Humanitarian organizations are warning that the displacement response remains severely underfunded, despite the urgent need for shelter, food, health, protection, and sanitation assistance. Due to the urgency of the situation, some resources initially allocated for the ongoing cyclone season have been reprogrammed to address displacement; however, current assistance levels remain insufficient to meet needs.

Weather shocks: The 2025/26 agricultural and rainy season has started countrywide, with initial plantings already completed. However, certain anomalies have emerged that require close monitoring.

• The 2025/26 agricultural and rainy season began on time in most parts of the country, though the onset was delayed by up to 20 days in the southern areas, which may slightly impact the availability of green and main harvests.
• From October 1 to December 10, 2025, above-average rainfall was recorded across much of the central and northern regions. However, the southern part of the country faced negative anomalies, with recorded rainfall falling below 85 percent of the average in some areas.
• By mid-December, soil moisture levels varied from satisfactory to sufficient across the country, though localized deficits persisted in the north and south. Vegetation conditions were generally above average, except for specific parts of the southern region and Zambezia Province, where vegetation levels remained below average. Most crops were in the vegetative stage, with the Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) ranging from good to very good.
• In late December, heavy rainfall in central regions caused water levels to rise in the Búzi, Púngoè, and Zambezi river basins, leading to moderate flooding in agricultural areas and impassable roads, particularly along the Búzi and Púngoè rivers. Thousands of people were affected, especially in Vila do Búzi, where the floods impacted homes and infrastructure. The government, through the National Institute for Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (INGD), evacuated those at risk to safer locations and, in collaboration with humanitarian partners, provided initial support. As of December 28, approximately 9,000 people were accommodated in 17 temporary accommodation centers across the Buzi and Nhamatanda districts. The affected areas are historically prone to flooding, and many families have alternative farms on higher ground. However, for those without such options, recovery can be achievable if affected households have access to seeds for replanting. By the end of December, water levels are expected to recede, allowing for a gradual return to typical livelihoods, including replanting where possible.

Staple food prices: Countrywide, the prices of staple foods such as maize grain are rising seasonally. In the southern region, prices remain significantly above average, while in the central and northern regions, they are relatively near or below average.

• From October to November, the price of maize grain increased by 6 percent in the southern region and 11-14 percent in the central and northern regions. In November 2025, the maize price was 57 percent higher than the five-year average in the south, although it was similar to last year, while prices were near the five-year average in the central region and 34 percent below average in the north. Prices in the central and northern regions were also 35 percent lower than last year.
• Rice prices remained countrywide from October to November 2025, but 26-67 percent above the five-year average. Compared to last year, rice prices in November 2025 were 31 percent higher in the southern zone and relatively stable in the central and northern zones.

Restrictions on non-essential imports: The Mozambican government has introduced temporary import restrictions on 16 products to support domestic production and prioritize limited foreign exchange for essential goods amid ongoing currency shortages. The restrictions include maize flour, maize grain, wheat grain, edible poultry meat and offal, bulk rice, bulk sugar, refined edible palm oil, pasta, and salt. Imports of maize and wheat grain for industrial mills will continue through the large-scale importers, while cross-border trade is expected to continue at an average level. These restrictions were recently introduced (December 17) and potential impacts have yet to be assessed.

Humanitarian food assistance

As of November, FSC partners reported that food assistance has reached approximately 361,200 people in Cabo Delgado and Nampula. Among these, 32 percent were impacted by conflict, 2 percent under Anticipatory Actions, and 66 percent under Social Protection. Humanitarian food assistance covered nearly 40 percent of the monthly caloric needs for conflict-affected beneficiaries and up to 80 percent for those assisted under Anticipatory Actions and Social Protection. In November, the WFP provided emergency assistance to 10,220 newly displaced individuals in the Eráti District of Nampula Province as part of the JRP. Humanitarian food assistance is still far below the level of need, reaching only about 15 percent of the target population. 

Most of the assumptions that underpinned FEWS NET’s analysis of the most likely scenario for the Mozambique Food Security Outlook from October 2025 to May 2026 remain valid; however, the following updates have been made to incorporate new evidence:

• From January to April, recent global forecasts indicate a transition from La Niña to neutral conditions, suggesting average rainfall across most northern regions of the country. In contrast, southern and central Mozambique are expected to experience normal to below-normal rainfall.
• The cumulative rainfall from October to April is anticipated to be average in central Mozambique, with above-average rainfall possible in localized areas of northern Mozambique. Based on analysis of previous years and preliminary in-season forecasts, there is an increased likelihood of a mix of above-average and below-average maize yields, with average yields expected countrywide.
• The potential for excessive rainfall events and flooding in northern and central Mozambique is expected to rise with the onset of the tropical cyclone season in December.
• An above-average number of tropical cyclones and storms is anticipated between January and March, which could affect Mozambique.

Humanitarian food assistance

Over the next six months, 115 million USD is required to fully implement all planned activities, including an 80 million USD shortfall for emergency response efforts. If additional funding is not secured, the number of people assisted in Cabo Delgado is expected to decrease from 420,000 to 265,000 by March 2026. Starting in May, the WFP will focus on providing immediate assistance to newly displaced populations. With the available CERF resources, the WFP aims to assist 87,000 individuals affected and displaced by recent attacks in Nampula. Additionally, under the JRP framework, the WFP is preparing to help 6,500 people in Nampula province.

Northern areas

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist through May 2026 across the conflict-affected districts of Cabo Delgado and Nampula, including Ancuabe, Chiúre, Ibo, Macomia, Mecúfi, Meluco, Mocímboa da Praia, Muidumbe, Namuno, Nangade, Palma, Quissanga, Memba, and Eráti. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are likely to continue through February 2026 in certain areas of Muidumbe and Nangade, and through April in parts of Macomia and Quissanga, where humanitarian food assistance helps reduce food consumption gaps.

As the lean season continues, most conflict-affected poor households’ food stocks have already been depleted, and income-earning opportunities remain below average. Combined with poorly functioning local markets, access to food remains below average. This situation leads to widening food consumption gaps, particularly for the poorest families lacking alternative resources, such as selling livestock. Many of these households depend on humanitarian food assistance, which remains insufficient due to funding and insecurity preventing humanitarian organizations from accessing the most at-risk areas. 

In the absence of humanitarian food assistance, households are increasingly relying on forest resources as their main source of food and income, particularly as wild food availability increases with the start of the rainy season. Households with access to the sea will engage in fishing activities. Households that are sometimes forced to hide in the forest, lacking food reserves and access to humanitarian assistance, will heavily rely on forest resources and struggle to meet their daily food needs. These households may adopt coping strategies such as reducing meal size and frequency and prioritizing feeding children, and are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. In relatively safer areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected, supported by food stocks from the 2025 harvest.

Southern and central areas

In the southern and central semi-arid regions, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through March 2026. However, some improvements are anticipated in April and May 2026, coinciding with the start of the main harvests. During the lean season, exhausted household food stocks combined with the already above-average and seasonal increase in staple food prices will exacerbate acute food insecurity, as many poor households will rely on market purchases amid constrained purchasing power.

The updated 2025/26 seasonal forecast now indicates a higher likelihood of average to below-average rainfall for the southern zone, unlike previous forecasts that suggested a higher chance of typical rainfall. The revised forecast raises concern, particularly given the region's exposure to erratic rainfall over the past two seasons, including the El Niño-induced drought in 2024. Many vulnerable households have yet to fully recover from these successive shocks. A potential third consecutive dry season could further constrain food and income access and severely disrupt typical livelihoods.

Households are likely to employ unsustainable coping strategies as they exhaust available options and face increased competition for forest products, resulting in below-average income from wood and charcoal sales. Key sources of food and income, including agricultural labor, are also expected to remain below average. Households in remote areas are likely to be the most affected due to limited market access and the absence of livestock assets. Coping strategies for these households will be limited to reducing meal size and frequency, prioritizing feeding children, sending household members to eat elsewhere, consuming less-preferred foods, and increasing reliance on wild foods. However, these households will still be unable to meet their minimum food needs and are expected to continue facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through March 2026.  

In the least-affected areas, most poor households are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). These households are barely meeting their minimum food needs but struggle to afford essential non-food expenses such as agricultural inputs, veterinary services, school fees, and medical care. During the February-March 2026 lean season, some households currently in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are likely to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to peak prices and increasingly limited market access. However, between April and May 2026, the anticipated increase in food availability and consumption from the main harvest is likely to result in overall improvements in food security, with several districts transitioning from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.

Many of the key sources of evidence utilized for FEWS NET’s October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook remain the same; however, new and additional sources of evidence are listed below.