Food assistance needs remain high and are likely to increase during the upcoming lean season

• Many areas of Mozambique remain Minimum (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as households access food stocks from the 2020/2021 harvest. In the conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist as many households remain displaced and lack adequate access to food and income. With the start of the lean season in October, more southern and central areas are likely to face area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes as food stocks decline seasonally. In urban and peri-urban areas, many poor households are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as COVID-19 control measures limit engagement in typical livelihood activities, with the most vulnerable households likely facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

• According to the Humanitarian Response Plan for 2021 in Mozambique, around 1.3 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance and protection through 2021, with over 900,000 people likely in Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Nampula. Households in conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado are expected to be facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes as the insecurity is disrupting local markets and driving up the cost of food and household items. In July and August, humanitarian food assistance reached around 854,000 IDPs in Cabo Delgado and Nampula. Due to a lack of funding, WFP provided a single full ration in July to cover food assistance needs through August, resulting in beneficiaries receiving rations equivalent to around 39 percent of daily kilocalories (kcals) over two months. WFP announced that a single full ration distribution would again be provided in September to cover food assistance needs through October, resulting in IDPs continuing to receive rations equivalent to around 39 percent of daily kcals.

• In early August, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases declined from a seven-day rolling average peak of around 1,900 daily cases to a seven-day rolling average of 440 daily cases by August 29. In early August, the government launched a mass COVID-19 vaccination campaign. According to the government, by August 27, around 6 percent of Mozambique’s population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine. On August 27, 2021, the government lowered the alert level from four to three and extended COVID-19 control measures for another 30 days. The COVID-19 containment measures continue to negatively impact mostly poor urban and peri-urban households dependent on income from informal businesses, driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes with the poorest and most affected families likely facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

Across Mozambique, most poor households are facing None (IPC Phase 1) outcomes supported by the availability of food reserves at the household level, seasonally low food prices, and the harvest of post-flood and second season vegetable production. However, area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are present in central and southern regions as poor households continue recovering from past cyclones, floods, and drought. In Cabo Delgado, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist as the conflict and mass displacement continue to disrupt household access to food and typical income-earning opportunities. In inaccessible areas, there is concern that vulnerable people residing in the woods to avoid the conflict or held hostage by the insurgents are likely facing more accentuated food consumption gaps indicative of Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

In Cabo Delgado, the intensification of the government offensive with the support of foreign troops resulted in the re-taking of insurgent-controlled land, including Mocimboa Da Praia town. Although some households are returning to their home of origin, most IDPs are not expected to return to their homes through the scenario period. At the end of July, the government estimated that more than 826,000 people have been displaced in Cabo Delgado province. In August, the weekly IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix reported that cumulatively between August 4 and August 24, over 18,600 people were reported on the move in Cabo Delgado-around 52 percent are children-with around 18 percent of IDP movements originating from Palma. IDPs are also traveling from Nangade, Mueda, Muidumbe, Macomia and Cidade de Pemba. Approximately 66 percent of the IDPs reported being displaced at least twice, and 70 percent of IDPs reported living with host communities. Over the last three weeks, an average of around 6,200 IDPs are reported weekly to be on the move indicating that households continue to relocate in search of safety and better access to food and income-earning opportunities. As of August 24, 2021, the IOM estimates that over 101,000 IDPs likely reside in Cidade de Pemba, Mueda, and Metuge districts, with 50,000-100,000 IDPs located in Ancuabe, Montepuez, and Nangade districts.

Insufficient funding has been a major challenge for humanitarian agencies, particularly in response to the displacement of households in Cabo Delgado. According to the FSC’s 2021 Humanitarian Response Plan, around 1.3 million people are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2021, specifically in Niassa, Cabo Delgado, and Nampula. In northern Mozambique, conflict and repeated displacement, compounded by climatic shocks, have disrupted community agricultural activities and typical income-earning opportunities. More than 900,000 people in Cabo Delgado, Niassa, and Nampula are estimated by the FSC to be facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes, while market disruptions from the insecurity have driven up the cost of food and household items. In July 2021, around 854,000 IDPs received humanitarian food assistance in Cabo Delgado and Nampula. However, underfunding and access challenges due to insecurity are impacting humanitarian response efforts. According to OCHA’s Financial Tracking Service, around 36 percent of the HRP is funded as of August 2021. The FSC estimates that 68 million USD is needed to provide critical food assistance and support for livelihood activities through November, particularly through the distribution of seeds and agricultural inputs ahead of the main planting season, which starts in October/November 2021. Additionally, the FSC and humanitarian partners are warning that up to 250,000 people will not receive assistance to restore their livelihoods, missing the opportunity to reduce food security and the dependency on humanitarian assistance in the region. In July, WFP announced it was providing one month’s equivalent rations to cover food assistance needs through August, reducing monthly rations to around 39 percent equivalent daily kcal rations due to a lack of funding. In September, an additional single distribution of one month’s equivalent rations will be provided to last through October, meaning that IDPs will continue to receive about 39 percent of daily kcals. However, other FSC members are likely to continue providing general humanitarian assistance in some locations. Community leaders are reporting that due to a lack of income and food, households are engaging in negative coping mechanisms to minimize food consumption gaps, including relying on less preferred and less expensive food, reducing the number and portion of meals per day, borrowing food/relying on help from friends and relative, and adults restricting consumption so children can eat.

In August 2021, WFP VAM-CBT published findings from a market and cash feasibility assessment undertaken in January 2021 in Ancuabe, Chiúre, Metuge, Meluco, and Montepuez districts of Cabo Delgado Province, with the collaboration of various stakeholders, including the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The assessment aimed to assess market functionality and capacity to respond to the increase in demand, verify the feasibility of cash assistance, and identify appropriate delivery mechanisms for cash transfers. Overall, the assessment showed evidence of good market function in the main markets and the presence of financial service providers.  Markets are open daily, and there is a wide variety of retail and wholesale vendors and no indication of security concerns regarding travel to and from local markets. However, 25-70 percent of the population in Chiure, Meluco, Metuge, and Montepuez districts reported reducing the number of daily meals, while 20-60 percent of households are purchasing cheaper food. Based on ground data, households are still engaging in coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes to minimize food consumption gaps.

In early August, the seven-day rolling average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases peaked at around 1,900 before declining to a seven-day rolling average of 440 daily confirmed cases by August 29, 2021. On August 27, 2021, the government lowered the COVID-19 alert level from four to three and extended COVID-19 mitigation measures for another 30 days. The new measures include the resumption of in-person classes, normal public administration hours, a return to a national 10 pm to 4 am curfew, shopping centers can operate from 9 am to 6 pm Monday to Saturday and 9 am to 5 pm on other days, and restaurants and takeaways can operate from 6 am to 8 pm. The third phase of COVID-19 vaccinations began in early August, targeting people not vaccinated during past vaccine drives, people aged 50 or over, and workers in collective passenger transport. According to the government, as of August 27, 2021, around 1.8 million people have received at least one vaccine dose, approximately 6 percent of the national population. The COVID-19 containment measures continue to negatively impact mostly poor urban and peri-urban households dependent on income from informal businesses, driving Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Many households are engaged in coping strategies such as seeking support from wealthier friends, family, and neighbors, or engaging in illegal street sales, hawking, and illicit practices. The poorest and most affected families without any support likely face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Due to increased border control, including the recent activation of Alert level 4 in South Africa, migration for labor opportunities in South Africa is increasingly difficult, with many people being frequently deported back to the country.

Across Mozambique, households are engaged in the second agricultural season (April-September), which typically relies on residual soil moisture to grow mostly vegetables. Second season vegetable production is helping to stabilize food security in low-lying areas of the southern part of the country, mainly in Maputo and Gaza provinces, which suffered from localized floods in February after being affected by drought in previous months. However, residual soil moisture is well below average in the eastern range of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Zambézia provinces, where the second season is less practiced. Overall, second season vegetables are available for consumption and sale in local markets, helping to stabilize Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes across much of the country and provide complimentary food in the areas facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.

In July, maize grain prices started to increase in most monitored markets after reaching the typical seasonally low post-harvest prices in June and July. In most markets, maize grain prices have increased between 6 and 22 percent. However, prices remained stable or slightly decreased in other markets, which presupposes that the lowest level for those markets was reached in July. In July, maize grain prices in most monitored markets were 6 to 40 percent below their respective 2020 prices. However, in Montepuez and Cabo Delgado province, maize grain prices were 15 percent above last year, while maize grain prices in Maputo and Lichinga were similar to 2020 prices. Compared to the five-year average, maize grain prices in July had a mixed trend but are expected to increase through January/February as food stocks decline, and more households become market dependent. As typical, the prices of maize meal were stable from June to July. The exceptions include Chicualacuala and Tete, where the price of maize meal decreased by 10 and 8 percent respectively, and Chókwe and Inhambane, where the price of maize meal increased by 10 and 6 percent, respectively. Prices also had a mixed trend when compared to prices from 2020 and the five-year average. Similarly, and as typical, the rice prices were stable from June to July, except for an 8 and 9 percent increase in Cuamba and Montepuez, respectively, and a 7 percent decrease in Chicualacuala. Rice prices also had a mixed trend when compared to prices last year and the five-year average. While maize meal and rice prices tend to remain stable throughout the year, monthly price fluctuations are driven by localized supply and demand dynamics.

Overall, the assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for the Mozambique June 2021 to January 2022 Food Security Outlook remain unchanged except for the following:

• Overall, levels of violence stemming from the Cabo Delgado insurgency (both in number of attacks and deaths) have declined from their peak in the second quarter of 2020. In the coming months, clashes between the insurgents and the Mozambican-led international coalition will likely continue to occur with unchanged frequency in remote areas, while violence against civilians in these areas is expected to decrease. Although some IDPs have begun returning to their home of origin, most IDPs are expected to not return to their homes of origin due to fear of attack from insurgents. 

In August and September, most households across Mozambique will be able to meet their basic food needs and will likely face None (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. However, in large parts of the southern and central zones, the effects of past shocks in 2019, 2020, and early 2021 are expected to continue to drive area-level Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes as households recover and manage to meet their food consumption needs, but many households are not expected to be able to purchase non-food needs due to limited access to income. In the areas affected by the conflict in Cabo Delgado, the recent intensification of the conflict and decline in humanitarian food assistance rations are expected to increase the number of households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through the projection period. Beginning in October, the lean season is expected to begin as many poor households deplete their food stocks and increase their reliance on market purchases for food. Staple food prices in local markets are expected to seasonally increase before peaking in January/February 2022, limiting household access to food due to poor purchasing power. Most households will begin to intensify their typical coping strategies to meet food needs, including reducing spending on non-food items, purchasing less preferred foods, supplementing their diet with wild foods, and increasing their reliance on market purchases. With the start of the 2021/2022 agricultural season, agricultural labor opportunities across Mozambique are expected to increase household incomes to average levels. Still, above-average staple food prices in local markets will likely impact household purchasing power as households become more reliant on market food purchases. Some very poor households will intensify the production and sale of traditional drinks, firewood and charcoal sales, cut and sell stakes or grass for building, and seek informal work to increase household income. The onset of rainfall between October and December is expected to improve the availability of various wild and seasonal foods that will gradually improve food availability for poor households until the green harvest in February/March 2022. From October 2021 through January 2022, most of Mozambique is expected to continue facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In Cabo Delgado, the conflict is expected to continue with unchanged frequency in remote areas, while violence against civilians is expected to decrease. Although some IDPs are likely to return to their home of origin, most IDPs will likely remain displaced and dependent on support from host-family communities and humanitarian assistance. However, limited access to agricultural inputs for the upcoming 2021/2022 agricultural season will likely increase pressure on the humanitarian response resources. As a result, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely continue in Cabo Delgado until the end of the scenario period in January 2022.