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Intensification of conflict, drought, and indirect impacts of COVID-19 drive high assistance needs

  • Food Security Outlook Update
  • Mozambique
  • August 2020
Intensification of conflict, drought, and indirect impacts of COVID-19 drive high assistance needs

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  • Key Messages
  • CURRENT SITUATION
  • UPDATED ASSUMPTIONS
  • MOST LIKELY PROJECTED OUTCOMES THROUGH JANUARY 2021
  • Key Messages
    • Many central and northern areas continue to face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) or Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in the drought-affected areas in southern and central Mozambique and conflict-affected areas in Cabo Delgado. With the start of the lean season in October, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge in southern Tete and northern Manica provinces. In urban and peri-urban areas, many poor households are unable to engage in their basic livelihood activities due to the continuation of COVID-19 control measures. The most vulnerable poor urban households are likely in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

    • A new 30-day State of Emergency went into effect on August 8, enabling continued enforcement of COVID-19 control measures previously in place. A phased approach to resuming economic and social activities from August through October was also announced; however, this is not expected to improve income-earning opportunities for the growing number of unemployed or informal urban workers whose businesses remain closed as most of the phased activities are focused on the resumption of educational activities. On August 10, community transmission of COVID-19 was declared in Maputo city, the third city in which community transmission is ongoing following Pemba and Nampula.

    • In July, the Food Security Cluster (FSC) distributed humanitarian food assistance to approximately 390,000 people across Mozambique, including beneficiaries in southern drought-affected areas. Beneficiaries in southern Mozambique received roughly 60 percent of their food needs through in-kind and cash-based transfers. It is anticipated ongoing assistance is improving food security among beneficiaries; however, it is also expected that assistance needs in the country broadly exceed the distribution of assistance.

    • Maize grain prices in monitored markets increased by 7-13 percent in July compared to June 2020, 11-50 percent above last year’s prices, and 18-55 percent above the five-year average. Maize meal and rice prices had mixed trends when compared to last month and the five-year average, driven largely by temporary supply changes. Maize meal prices in monitored markets across Mozambique were 6-37 percent above their respective five-year averages while rice prices in July had mixed trends compared to the five-year average.


    CURRENT SITUATION

    Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in the drought-affected areas in the southern and parts of the central region, and the conflict-affected areas in Cabo Delgado. In drought-affected areas, income from the sale of crops and livestock, a key source of household income, has been limited due to below-average harvests. Currently, most affected households have no or limited food

    stocks and income; and are engaged in coping strategies including reducing the frequency and quantity of meals, purchasing cheaper food, borrowing money and/or food from better-off families and friends, and consuming less preferred foods in excess. The poorest households are consuming wild foods at atypical levels which may cause health problems if eaten in excess or migrating to find better opportunities for casual work including the burning and selling of charcoal along the major corridors. However, as more households engage in self-employment activities, opportunities to sell decrease, as do prices because of increased competition, limiting household incomes. Low demand due to lower purchasing power of potential buyers is also limiting income for poor households. Potential buyers are primarily from the urban and peri-urban areas where COVID-19 control measures have led to the closure of small businesses and many households becoming unemployed or having their work contracts temporarily or indefinitely suspended.

    Second season vegetable production is stabilizing food insecurity in localized lowland areas with residual soil moisture or access to irrigation. However, production is expected to be below average due to widespread below-average residual soil moisture following the early cessation of rainfall during the 2019/20 rainy season. Most drought-affected areas have no to limited residual soil moisture for second season production. In the southern semiarid areas, most poor households do not have seed stocks to participate in the second season following a third consecutive year of drought or available income to purchase seeds. Most poor households are increasing their engagement in self-employment activities to access income for food purchases.

    The ongoing conflicts in northern and central Mozambique, specifically in northeastern Cabo Delgado and parts of Manica and Sofala provinces are displacing thousands of people. In Cabo Delgado, where the intensity of the conflict is greatest, thousands of people are fleeing conflict-affected areas and seeking shelter in and around Pemba (particularly Ibo and Metuge districts), Nampula province, and with kinship in other provinces across Mozambique. Information on the magnitude of displacement and food insecurity remains uncertain. In July, OCHA estimated that there were at least 250,000 internally displaced people and 54,000 acutely malnourished children. The continued intensification of the conflict in July and August has likely increased the number of people who have been displaced. Overall it is expected that poor households impacted by the conflict are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), as they are often displaced away from their livelihoods and productive assets, limiting their capacity to earn income or harvest food at typical levels. This is driving either moderate consumption gaps or increasing the necessity to engage in negative coping. There are anecdotal reports of households experiencing short-term wider food consumption gaps while fleeing to areas of refuge. However, key informants report that acute malnutrition is not being reported among IDPs arriving at shelters in and around Pemba. In addition to the impacts of conflict, as of August 27, Cabo Delgado has the third-highest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases after Maputo City and Maputo province, the third-highest number of active cases, and a cumulative test positivity rate of 7.2 percent. According to OCHA, following the heavy rains in December 2019 and January 2020, and a lack of access to clean water and sanitation facilities, Cabo Delgado has also been affected by a cholera outbreak with more than 1,200 cases and 18 deaths by July 1, 2020.

    According to the National Directorate for Livestock Development (DNDP) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADER), in early August there was an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the district of Magude in Maputo province in southern Mozambique. In response, the DNDP has prohibited the movement of all hoofed livestock (cattle, sheep, pigs, and goats), their products, and fodder to and from Magude and surrounding districts. The ban on livestock movement will likely affect meat supplies in southern markets and lead to price increases. Additionally, the movement restrictions may negatively impact the income of livestock farmers, traders, and others involved in the livestock marketing chain. The government is working to control and eliminate the outbreak. Additionally, following a report by the World Organization for Animal Health of an FMD outbreak in Chikwawa district in southern Malawi, the DNDP has banned the importation of cattle, pigs, goats, and sheep for breeding and slaughter, their sub-products, and cattle fodder from Malawi. District veterinary authorities will intensify the inspection of livestock movement and transit in districts bordering Malawi to detect possible cases of FMD.

    According to the Ministry of Health, as of August 28, 2020, Mozambique has 3,651 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 21 COVID-19 related deaths. With a tripling in the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases since the beginning of July, the pandemic is rapidly spreading. On August 10, community transmission of COVID-19 was declared in Maputo city joining the cities of Pemba and Nampula as areas with confirmed community transmission of COVID-19. Following the end of the first State of Emergency that was in effect from April through July (120 days), the second State of Emergency was declared for August 8 through September 6, 2020. The second State of Emergency enables continued enforcement of the previous control measures put in place along with a phased approach to resuming low-risk activities on August 18, medium risk activities on September 1, and high-risk activities on October 1. The phased opening plan is not expected to improve income-earning opportunities for the urban poor, who are unable to engage in petty trade and casual labor, as most of the phased activities are focused on the resumption of educational activities. According to a study released in mid-August by the Confederation of Economic Associations (CTA), in the first half of 2020, approximately 30,000 employment contracts were suspended across Mozambique and business activity fell by around 65 percent, with billing losses estimated at approximately 453 million USD due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The CTA estimates that by the end of 2020 around 63,000 employment contracts could be suspended, approximately 11 percent of the private sector workforce across the country. The economic slow-down and control measures are continuing to impact poor households who have lost the ability to engage in their basic livelihood activities such as petty trade and casual labor and are continuing to struggle to meet their food needs due to a lack of income to purchase food with the worst-affected poor households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.     

    In July, in most monitored markets, prices of maize grain increased by 7-13 percent compared to June. Prices of maize grain were trending at 11-50 percent above respective 2019 levels and 18-55 percent above the five-year average. The prices of maize grain are following seasonal trends and increasing due to gradually increased demand as household food stocks begin to diminish, and the start of the seasonal reduction of available maize grain in local markets. Maize grain prices remain above the five-year average due to successive price increases in recent years due to multiple shocks, including cyclones, floods, droughts, and conflict, which have impacted production in parts of the country. Maize meal and rice prices had mixed trends from June to July 2020. The increase and decrease in prices were primarily due to temporary changes in supply levels in local markets. Both maize meal and rice prices had mixed trends when compared to 2019. Maize meal prices were 6-37 percent their five-year averages while July rice prices had mixed trends when compared to the five-year average.

    Drought-affected areas of southern Mozambique have not received humanitarian food assistance since April, however, the distribution of humanitarian assistance resumed in July, specifically in Gaza and Inhambane provinces. Across the country, in July the FSC provided humanitarian assistance to 388,324 people, with WFP providing approximately 94 percent of the assistance received by beneficiaries. Among WFP’s beneficiaries, IDPs who are primarily located in Cabo Delgado received roughly 80 percent of their food needs while all other beneficiaries received roughly 60 percent of their food needs through in-kind and cash-based transfers. It is anticipated ongoing assistance is improving food security among beneficiaries; however, it is anticipated that levels of acute food insecurity, particularly in Cabo Delgado and southern Mozambique, exceed the distribution of assistance.


    UPDATED ASSUMPTIONS

    Overall, the assumptions used to develop FEWS NET’s most likely scenario for the Mozambique June 2020 to January 2021 Food Security Outlook remain the same, except for the following updated assumptions:

    • WFP currently plans to assist around 567,000 people in August 2020 across Mozambique, increasing to around 705,000 people between September and October, 860,000 people in November, and around 724,000 people monthly from December 2020 to March 2021. However, adjustments are likely to take place as resources are mobilized.
    • An increasing number of households are expected to be displaced by the conflict in Cabo Delgado. In northern Mozambique, land preparation and planting is expected to take place from September to February. Due to the increased displacement and fear of violence, the area likely planted will be below-average in Cabo Delgado. Already displaced households are unlikely to be able to plant crops for the 2020/21 agricultural season.

    MOST LIKELY PROJECTED OUTCOMES THROUGH JANUARY 2021

    In August and September, most households across Mozambique will be able to meet their basic food needs and will likely face None (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. However, large parts of the southern semiarid areas are experiencing the effects of the lean season two months earlier than normal as most households have already exhausted their food stocks and have no or reduced income for food market purchases. In these areas, poor households are expected to continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. In the areas affected by the conflict in Cabo Delgado, along with the intensification of the conflict, more people are expected to continue facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through the projection period. In less affected areas, poor households will likely face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

    From October 2020 to January 2021, as the typical lean season starts, more people are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In shock affected areas, poor households are expected to expand their livelihood coping strategies to cover their food consumption needs. In conflict-affected areas, the number of internally displaced households are expected to increase. In southern Tete province and northern Manica province, poor households who have already exhausted food stocks along with no or limited income will begin facing food gaps and face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Following three years of consecutive drought, in the southern drought-affected areas, poor households may rely more on wild foods due to limited food reserves at a household level, low supplies on the market, low incomes, and expected high staple food prices. In conflict areas, households are likely to depend on humanitarian assistance following the lost access to their income and food stocks. In less affected areas, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will prevail. Land preparation is expected to actively begin during this period, followed by planting once the rainfall begins. Given that most households in conflict, and drought-affected, and flood-affected areas have lost or have limited seed stocks or income, there will be a high need for seeds and other agricultural inputs to allow households to plant enough acreage. In urban and peri-urban areas, the most vulnerable households will likely continue facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes following the declaration of the second State of Emergency extending the COVID-19 control measures.

    Figures Gorongosa maize grain prices and projections. The prices of maize grain are following seasonal trends and increasing due to g

    Figure 1

    Figure 1.

    Source: FEWS NET estimates based on MASA/SIMA data

    This Food Security Outlook Update provides an analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography over the next six months. Learn more here.

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