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Stressed outcomes, expected through December in parts of the southern and central regions

  • Food Security Outlook Update
  • Mozambique
  • August 2015
Stressed outcomes, expected through December in parts of the southern and central regions

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  • Key Messages
  • Current Situation
  • Updated Assumptions
  • Projected Outlook through December 2015
  • Key Messages
    • Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity outcomes are found across the country. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will continue until December, in parts of the southern semiarid livelihood zone including several districts in Gaza and Inhambane provinces, and south of Sofala province.

    • Social safety-net programming is currently ongoing and food and water is being provided by government and partners as part of the humanitarian response and it is expected to continue until December. Between October and December, the upcoming rainfall season will likely improve the water shortages in the areas of focus of the south and central regions.

    • Although markets are adequately stocked, maize grain prices are increasing at levels that are more rapid than average and in some cases a month earlier than normally expected. These high food prices will likely limit poorer household purchasing power in the coming months.


    Current Situation
    • For the majority of rural households throughout the country the general food security conditions continue to be favorable and Minimal food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1) are projected until December. Many of these households are still consuming food stocks from the 2014/15 main harvest and are able to meet their basic food needs. In areas that typically practice second season cropping, households also have access to these crops, however the amount is slightly reduced this year in comparison to average due to the lower amounts of residual moisture as a result of dryness and drought in May and June.
    • Very poor households are Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts of southern semiarid areas, including the districts of Massangena and Chigubo, northern parts of Chicualacuala, Mabalane, Guijá, and Chibuto districts in Gaza province, along with Mabote, Funhalouro, Panda, Govuro, and Homoine districts in Inhambane province, and Machanga district in southern Sofala province. Households in these areas are experiencing acute food insecurity due to mid-season dryness which led to reduced crop yields and crop failure this past season, and significant water shortages for humans and for livestock use. These affected households are currently facing some livelihood protection deficits, whereby they are only able to meet their food needs, but are not able to meet their non-food requirements, compromising their livelihoods.
    • Between June and July, maize grain prices began increasing one month earlier than expected. For example, in Chókwe prices rose by 34 percent. Typically, maize grain prices start to increase between July and August. In Mocuba and Nampula, prices are high and increasing more rapidly than average. The abnormal increases and the above average rate at which prices are increasing is the result of below-average maize grain production for the 2014/15 agriculture season. 

    Updated Assumptions

    The assumptions used to develop the most likely scenario for the July-December Outlook period remain valid. A full discussion of the scenario is available at Mozambique Food Security Outlook for July to December 2015.


    Projected Outlook through December 2015

    For the majority of the country, Minimal food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1) are projected until December. In the areas of focus:

    August to September: The lean season is expected to begin in September as opposed to October for poor and very poor households in the drought-affected districts in the south and central zones of the country. In these areas, most household will cope by extending their typical livelihood strategies to meet their food needs, though they may not be able to afford some of the non-food expenditures. Social safety-net programming is currently ongoing and food and water is being provided by government and partners as part of the humanitarian response.  For income these households will increase their participation in non-farm income activities such as brewing, selling natural products such as grass, building and selling poles, producing and selling charcoal and firewood, hunting, and seeking casual labor for land preparation during the months of August and September. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity outcomes will prevail.  

    October to December: Own produced food stocks within poorer households will be finished. Agricultural labor opportunities (planting) are expected to increase as the onset of the next agricultural season approaches in October.  The income generated through the expansion of livelihood strategies, will continue to be enough for food purchases. However, households will continue face livelihood protection deficits because they may not be able to afford non-food expenditures. Social safety-net programming, along with food and water provisions from government and partners as part of the humanitarian response are expected to continue during this period.  The interventions will allow households preserve their livelihood assets in the areas of focus of the south and central regions. This is especially important since there is an increased chance for a delayed start of season given the forecast for the El Niño, possibly impacting agricultural labor opportunities including cultivation and weeding. It is expected that the onset of rains in November, even if poor, will provide a variety of wild and seasonal food that will gradually improve food access until the green harvest becomes available in January/February 2015. It is projected Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food insecurity outcomes. 

    Figures Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 1. Retail maize grain prices in Chókwe (in a region affected by drought)

    Figure 2

    Figure 1. Retail maize grain prices in Chókwe (in a region affected by drought)

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 2. Retail maize grain prices in Mocuba (in a region affected by floods)

    Figure 3

    Figure 2. Retail maize grain prices in Mocuba (in a region affected by floods)

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 1

    Source:

    This Food Security Outlook Update provides an analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography over the next six months. Learn more here.

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