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Minimal food insecurity will continue through December

  • Food Security Outlook Update
  • Mozambique
  • August 2014
Minimal food insecurity will continue through December

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  • Key Messages
  • Current Situation
  • Updated Assumptions
  • Projected Outlook through December 2014
  • Key Messages
    • The food security situation in the majority of the rural households across the country is stable, including areas in the Limpopo Basin affected by mild floods in February/March 2014. Acute food insecurity outcomes will remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from now until December.

    • Food prices in monitored markets between June and July were consistent with the seasonal trends. Maize grain prices generally remain near or below the five-year average and below last year´s prices. Bean prices have remained stable or decreased though still remain above-average in some markets. As typical, imported and locally produced rice prices remain stable.


    Current Situation
    • The majority of rural households throughout the country are still able to meet their basic food needs through their own production from the 2013/14 cropping season. Additionally, food is available in the markets and areas in the south with access to residual moisture are accessing second season production.
    • The harvest for the main agriculture season ended and second season related activities are ongoing. Second season crops include mainly horticulture crops such as tomatoes, cabbages, lettuce, onions, and peppers. A small amount of maize and beans are also produced. Preliminary estimates indicate a total cereal production of about 2,530,050 MT, an increase of 15 percent above the five-year average and 14 percent above last year’s cereal production.
    • As is typical for this time of the year, market purchases by poor and very poor households are currently playing a major role in supplementing some of the food gaps among households that have already exhausted their main season food stocks. Generally the food prices from June to July in the monitored markets were consistent with the seasonal trends for most monitored commodities (maize, rice, and beans). This year’s staple food prices are relatively low compared to last year’s prices, with the exception of bean prices which are relatively higher in some markets.
    • According to Agriculture Market Information System (SIMA), the level of supply of food commodities in main wholesale and retail markets is good and the flow of staple maize throughout the country is typical. For instance, the major reference markets in Maputo city are now receiving maize from the central region (specifically Nhamatanda district), after a period in which maize was flowing mostly from southern markets due to above average availability. However, other southern markets like Chókwe and Guijá are still being supplied by maize from within the same districts or neighboring areas. A normal pattern was observed in all other monitored markets in the central and northern regions.
    •  The eighteenth Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-18) will take place in late August, in Windhoek, Namibia. The purpose of the forum is to develop a regional climate outlook for the rainfall season (October 2014-March 2015). In Mozambique, SARCOF is crucial in informing the preparation of national contingency plans for agriculture, disaster management, health strategies, and food security as a whole. The outcomes of the seasonal climate outlook will provide more insight into the potential impacts of global climate systems such as El Niño or La Niña on food security and other socioeconomic sectors.

    Updated Assumptions

    The assumptions used to develop the most likely scenario for the July to December 2014 Outlook period are still valid. The overall projected food security outcomes for the outlook period are not expected to change. A full discussion of the scenario is available in the Mozambique July 2014 Food Security Outlook.


    Projected Outlook through December 2014

    The majority of the households across the country, including Southern Semiarid Cereals and Cattle (MZ22) and the Limpopo and Elephant Rivers Mixed Cropping (MZ24) livelihood zones, will face Minimal food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1) for the entire scenario period and they will meet their basic food needs through the consumption of their own production, complemented by market purchases, and the extension of livelihood strategies. 

    Figures Seasonal Calendar

    Figure 2

    Seasonal Calendar

    Source: Fews Net

    Figure 4

    Source:

    This Food Security Outlook Update provides an analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography over the next six months. Learn more here.

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