Minimal food insecurity will continue

• The food security situation in the majority of the rural households across the country is stable. In areas of the Limpopo Basin (Bilene, Chibuto, Chokwe, Guija and Xai-Xai districts) affected by shocks (floods) this year, acute food insecurity outcomes have not deteriorated any further and  will  remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from September until December.  

• Generally the food prices from June to July in the monitored markets were consistent with the seasonal trends with some prices already rising and others still decreasing, but overall no significant anomalies were observed.  The continued stability of retail prices will benefit consumers, especially the poor.

Overall, the current situation is characterized by favorable food security conditions for the majority of rural households throughout the country. Many of these households are still able to meet their basic food needs thanks to food stocks from the main harvest of the 2013/14 cropping season, continued food availability in markets, and also from second season production in limited areas. Although the second cropping season accounts for only 15 to 20 percent of the total annual production it plays an important role in minimizing the shortfalls from the main season where possible. This year in particular, the second cropping season combined with the post flooding production was exceptionally good in the semi-arid interior districts of southern Mozambique.

• As is typical for this time of the year, markets are currently playing a major role in supplementing some of the food gaps among the poor and very poor households with exhausted or dwindling food stocks. Generally the food prices from June to July in the monitored markets were consistent with the seasonal trends with some prices already rising and others still decreasing, but overall no significant anomalies were observed.
• Minor maize price anomalies were observed in Manica Province where a small decrease of 7 percent occurred from June to July against the expected seasonal increase. New maize supplies from the production areas within Manica are pushing prices down, which is favoring food access among market dependent households. This season’s maize production in Manica is estimated to have been well above the average due to favorable agroclimatic conditions during the season. In Chokwe market (Gaza Province),  the reference market for the flood affected areas in the Limpopo basin, maize prices are still falling (1.2 percent drop from June to July) but still remain 43 percent above the five year average and 23 percent above last year’s prices. In all other monitored markets, maize prices were consistent with the seasonal trend and were the same as last year in Maxixe, Gorongosa, and Maputo markets, but slightly above last year’s prices in markets in Nampula and Tete.
• The seventeenth Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-17) will take place on August 28-30, in Harare, Zimbabwe.  The conference will produce the first consensual seasonal forecast for the period of October 2013 to March 2014. The purpose of the forum is to develop a better understanding of the climate outlook to inform the preparation of contingency plans for agriculture, disaster management, health strategies, and food security as a whole. The outcomes of the seasonal climate outlook will provide more insight into the potential impacts of global climate systems such as El Niño or La Niña on food security and other socio-economic sectors.

• The assumptions used to develop the most likely scenario for the July to December 2013 Outlook period are still valid. The overall projected food security outcomes for the outlook period are not expected to change. A full discussion of the scenario is available in the Mozambique July 2013 Food Security Outlook.

• Based on the assumptions used to develop the most likely scenario through December 2013, the majority of the households across the country will face Minimal food insecurity outcomes (IPC Phase 1) for the entire scenario period and they will meet their basic food needs through the consumption of their own production, complemented by market purchases and the extension of livelihood strategies.

Lower Limpopo Baixa Non Irrigation Scheme livelihood zone in Gaza Province (covering parts of Chokwe, Guija, Chibuto, Bilene and Xai-Xai districts):

• Currently, poorer households are relying on their own crop production from the post flooding and second season harvest, including market purchases, while employing a variety of typical coping mechanisms and livelihood strategies such as labor exchange, consumption of seasonal wild foods, the selling of firewood, charcoal, poultry, building stakes, and some are receiving remittances from relatives.
• From October to December, poor households will have exhausted their food stocks and will continue to expand their livelihood strategies to ensure adequate coverage of the food and other discretionary expenses. The expected onset of rains in October/November will provide a variety of seasonal wild foods and increasing agriculture labor opportunities. It is expected that a combination of planned social safety-net programs and food assistance by the Government and partners will likely prevent deterioration of current levels of Minimal acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1) in households in the areas of focus in the south region. Overall livelihood strategies will be maintained and households will refrain from depleting their productive assets as well as resorting to irreversible coping strategies.