Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcome persists despite ongoing countrywide harvests

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected through September in flood- and dryness-affected areas of southern and central Mozambique, where widespread crop failure and livestock losses, compounded by incomplete recovery from previous shocks, are expected to prolong the lean season until the second-season harvest becomes available in June. Households in these areas will remain highly market-dependent amid limited income-earning opportunities and below-average purchasing power, restricting food access and increasing reliance on coping strategies such as reducing meal size and frequency, consuming less-preferred or wild foods, and labor migration. The ongoing main season harvest, where possible, and the second season harvest starting in June are expected to gradually improve food availability in less-affected areas, supporting Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. 
• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through September in conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado and northern Nampula provinces, driven by ongoing insecurity, displacement, and market disruptions. Improvement to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) is anticipated in less conflict-affected areas where households are likely to benefit from the green and main harvest starting in April/May, gradually improving food availability and access. However, continued inflows of displaced populations and the associated pressure on local resources and markets are expected to limit improvements.
• Fuel prices remain stable to date, but the government has indicated that prices may increase if the escalation in the Middle East persists. Increased fuel prices would immediately raise transport, and eventually food costs, further eroding poor households’ purchasing power. Poor urban households rely heavily on market purchases, and would be directly and immediately affected by rising prices, purchasing power would be expected to decline, and competition for already limited income-generating opportunities would likely intensify.

This report provides an update to the February to September 2026 Food Security Outlook and March 2026 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of April 28, 2026.

The main harvest started in March/April across the country and is expected to be average at the national level, though harvests vary across subnational level. The harvest is ongoing at below-average levels in the southern zone and parts of the central zone. These areas were affected by floods and dry spells between January and March 2026, driving widespread crop failure. The shocks occurred during the reproductive phase (flowering stage), which is critical for crop development; as a result, crop losses exceeded 50 percent in the southern region, and there was little to no opportunity for replanting. Updated data as of April 24 indicate that more than 518,000 hectares of planted area were affected, of which over 312,000 hectares were completely lost. Losses were particularly severe in Gaza Province, where more than 87 percent of the planted area was affected, followed by Maputo and Sofala. Flooding also resulted in the death of more than 531,000 animals, including cattle, goats, and poultry (Figure 1). 

The security situation in parts of Cabo Delgado remains volatile, with sporadic attacks by non-state armed groups (NSAGs). According to the International Organization for Migration’s April 18 Movement Alert, intensified attacks and movements of NSAGs between April 1 and 17 resulted in new displacement in Macomia and Muidumbe districts. The ongoing violence and fear of attacks continue to limit households’ ability to engage in typical livelihood activities.  

Maize grain and rice prices in the southern region remain above the five-year average despite recent seasonal declining trends. Maize grain prices declined by 5-15 percent between February and March and were 15-30 percent below last year’s levels. However, maize prices remain 15-25 percent above the five-year average. Between February and March rice prices also decreased slightly, but remain 30-40 percent above the five-year average and similar to last year’s levels. Overall, elevated staple food prices, coupled with low household incomes, continue to constrain the purchasing power of poor households.

Intermittent and localized fuel shortages have reportedly continued since mid-April. Fuel prices remain unchanged, and the government continues to confirm the availability of fuel at the national level. However, recent speculation regarding potential shortages has driven increased demand, resulting in temporary supply pressures at some gas stations, particularly in Maputo City. This has led to localized shortages, although the situation appears to be driven primarily by changes in consumer demand (hoarding), leading to supply shortages in retail stores despite relatively stable upstream supply.

Localized support for agricultural inputs is ongoing. In flood-affected areas of Gaza and Sofala provinces, 42,000 people have received agricultural input assistance, primarily vegetable seeds for the second cropping season. 

Humanitarian food assistance

In March 2026, Food Security Cluster partners reached approximately 324,000 people (40 percent of the target population) with humanitarian food assistance, primarily in Cabo Delgado and Nampula provinces. By the end of April 2026, flood response operations had assisted around 256,000 people, most of whom were accommodated across 100 displacement centers. Beneficiaries received one-month food rations as well as return kits upon departure. Across both conflict- and flood-affected populations, food assistance made up nearly 40 percent of beneficiaries’ monthly caloric requirements.

Most of the assumptions that underpinned FEWS NET’s analysis of the most likely scenario for the Mozambique Food Security Outlook from February to September 2026 remain valid; however, the following updates have been made to incorporate new evidence:

•  While prospects for national crop production remain broadly average, the likelihood of a below-average harvest in the southern region has increased. In contrast, conditions in the central and northern regions are expected to remain average and above average, respectively.
• An increase in fuel prices is likely driven by the hostilities in the Middle East, according to government sources in Mozambique, which is anticipated to increase transport and food costs gradually. Fuel prices are likely to rise, alongside increases in the cost of imported agricultural inputs, particularly fertilizers, due to ongoing global supply disruptions.
• Maize grain prices are declining seasonally across most of the country; however, are expected to remain above the five-year average in the south through June. Thereafter, maize prices are projected to stabilize closer to the average and last year’s levels (Figure 2). This stability may continue until August, after which maize grain prices may begin to rise seasonally.

• Between April and September 2026, insecurity is expected to persist in parts of Cabo Delgado, with a likely seasonal increase in incidents during the dry season as improved mobility conditions favor operations by armed groups. Agricultural areas may become primary targets in the post-harvest period, consistent with recent NSAG incidents that appear linked to the search for food. Violence is expected to remain concentrated in historically affected districts, with a risk of expansion into central and southern parts of Cabo Delgado Province and northern Nampula, likely contributing to additional displacement and disruption to livelihoods.
• As part of the flood response and second season support, approximately 960,000 people are expected to be reached in the coming days with agricultural inputs — primarily seeds — across Gaza, Sofala, Maputo, Cabo Delgado, Zambezia, Tete, Manica, and Niassa provinces.

Humanitarian food assistance

• The number of people reached with food assistance in Cabo Delgado is expected to range between 265,000 and 425,000 by September 2026.

South and central regions

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist from April to September in areas most severely affected by floods and dry spells, including parts of Gaza, Maputo, Inhambane, and Sofala provinces. Between June and September, gradual improvements in food access are likely in some areas as second-season and post-flood harvests, particularly vegetables, become available. However, these gains are unlikely to make meaningful improvements in the southern areas. In areas remaining in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), many poor households lost their main-season crops and key livelihood assets, including livestock, poultry, and small ruminants, further compounding the effects of previous shocks from which they had not yet fully recovered. A widely adopted coping strategy is the exploitation of forest resources, particularly charcoal production and sales; however, this is largely viable only for communities located near major transport corridors that provide access to large consumption centers. Households living farther away are often relocated temporarily closer to these corridors or incur additional transport costs to participate. Households are also likely to employ negative coping strategies such as reducing meal size or frequency, prioritizing feeding children, and eating less preferred or wild foods. Labor migration to major urban centers and to neighboring South Africa is likely to continue as households seek income-earning opportunities, despite recurring expressions of hostility toward African migrants in some areas. Despite these coping strategies, food consumption gaps are expected to persist.

In areas less affected by weather shocks—particularly in the central zone—food security outcomes are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in April/May supported by the harvest, improving access to own-produced food.

Northern areas

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in conflict-affected areas of Cabo Delgado and northern Nampula through September, particularly in areas where humanitarian access remains limited. Sporadic attacks, a persistent climate of insecurity, and disrupted markets limit households’ ability to engage effectively and sustainably in food production and income-generating activities, thereby disrupting their livelihoods. Households are expected to continue employing negative coping strategies to meet basic food needs amid persistent insecurity, displacement, and market disruptions, including reducing meal size and frequency, prioritizing feeding children, eating less preferred and/or less nutritious foods, and reducing non-food expenditures (including healthcare and education). Households are also employing livelihood-based coping strategies that erode their productive capacity, including the sale of productive assets such as tools, fishing equipment, and livestock, as well as the liquidation of savings and essential household goods.

In less conflict-affected areas, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected due to the availability of food from the main harvest; however, the presence of newly displaced populations and new settlements may place additional pressure on available resources, maintaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in some areas.

Urban areas

Poor households in urban areas are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes between April and September, driven by below-average purchasing power amid above-average food prices and increased competition for limited income-generating opportunities, partly due to continued rural-to-urban migration. High fuel and transportation costs in urban and peri-urban areas, and particularly the poorest and most market-dependent households, are expected to further erode purchasing power. Urban households rely almost entirely on market purchases, and elevated prices for basic commodities — compounded by rising transport costs — will continue to constrain their ability to meet essential non-food expenditures. Additionally, increased migration from rural areas to urban centers is expected to intensify competition for already limited income-earning opportunities, while broader economic constraints, including limited access to foreign currency, may further exacerbate the situation by constraining the import of essential goods and disrupting business operations. A proportion of urban households (less than 20 percent), particularly those headed by elderly people, women, or children with limited or no social support, are likely to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. These households are expected to face food consumption gaps, particularly as rising prices continue to erode their purchasing power over time.

Many of the key sources of evidence utilized for FEWS NET’s February to September 2026 Food Security Outlook remain the same; however, new and additional sources of evidence are listed below.