Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes likely to emerge after a below-average harvest

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes persist, driven by multiple natural disasters during the 2021/2022 season and conflict in Cabo Delgado. However, the regular distribution of humanitarian food assistance (HFA) in areas of Cabo Delgado is supporting Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes. In drought-affected areas of southern and central Mozambique, a poor harvest, the depletion of food reserves, and limited income-generating opportunities are likely to result in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from June. In Nampula province, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to begin emerging in June in the areas most affected by the storms and cyclones, as a likely poor harvest, limited income-earning opportunities, and capacity of friends and family to assist become increasingly limited. 

• Across Mozambique, crops are in the maturation and harvesting stages for the 2021/2022 agricultural season, with the consumption of green foods already taking place in the north. National crop production is expected to be lower than last year due to reduced crop yields and crop losses impacted by multiple shocks. Flood-affected and low-lying areas have the potential for good vegetable production during the second season, given households have access to vegetable seeds. Moderate rainfall in April is likely to provide much-needed additional residual moisture for the second agricultural season, particularly in drought-affected areas.

• In March, WFP and humanitarian partners provided humanitarian food assistance (HFA) to around one million beneficiaries in Cabo Delgado and Nampula with full rations, around 137,000 more beneficiaries than in February. Additionally, WFP assisted around 25,000 beneficiaries in Nangade district, Cabo Delgado, for the first time since 2019 and resumed HFA in Macomia district-also in Cabo Delgado-in April. However, due to limited resources, WFP is distributing half rations equivalent to 39 percent of a 2100 kilocalorie diet in April and May to around 850,000 people in Cabo Delgado and 74,000 in Nampula and Niassa. A potential pipeline break is likely in June if funding is not secured. 

• Across many monitored markets, maize grain prices from February to March 2022 remained stable likely due to a delayed start of the 2021/2022 main season harvest. However, in Tete city, Maputo, and Mutarara, maize grain prices fell by 6 to 46 percent following local starts to the harvest. In Manica, prices increased by 15 percent, likely due to delays in the start of the harvest. Maize grain prices in March 2022 are 6-52 percent lower than last year, except in Chókwe, Massinga, and Montepuez, where prices are similar. Maize grain prices in most monitored markets are 5-39 percent below the five-year average, except in Montepuez, Manica, and Nampula, where prices are similar to the five-year average. As typical, maize meal and rice prices were stable from February to March 2022.

Across Mozambique, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes persist, driven by the impact of multiple natural disasters during the 2021/2022 season and the conflict in Cabo Delgado. The greatest shocks to the agricultural season have been damage from winds and flooding from Tropical Storm Ana, the low-pressure zone associated with Tropical Storm Dumako, and Tropical Cyclone Gombe which affected around 217,000 hectares of agricultural land across Nampula, Zambézia, Tete, and parts of Niassa, Cabo Delgado, Manica, and Sofala provinces, heavy rains upriver of the Maputo, Incomati, and Umbelúzi rivers which resulted in the flooding of 11,500 hecatares of agricultural land in Maputo province, and high land temperatures and prolonged dry spells across southern and parts of central Mozambique.

In Nampula, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes persist in the coastal and intermediate areas affected by the multiple tropical storms and tropical depressions that made landfall in 2022. In Ilha de Moçambique, Liupo, Mogincual, Monapo, Mossuril, and Meconta districts, access to food is deteriorating after many poor households lost their homes and food reserves and the assets typically used to earn income and access food. However, post-flood planting of short-cycle seeds (vegetables) is likely to improve households with access to seeds and help minimize food consumption gaps before the start of the lean season. However, most households are unlikely to recover until the next harvest in 2023 and will likely rely on humanitarian support to fill food consumption gaps.

In Cabo Delgado, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist due to the conflict where insurgents continue to carry out small-scale attacks and killings, primarily in Mueda, Nangade, and Meluco, with small insurgent cells seeking to loot food and supplies from unguarded places. In Niassa province, the situation has remained calm since December, with the affected populations gradually resuming their typical livelihood activities. In Cabo Delgado, some IDPs are returning to areas allowed by the government, but most IDPs are not returning due to security concerns. As most IDPs cannot access land and agricultural inputs, there has been limited participation in the ongoing 2021/22 agricultural season. According to the IOM's Displacement Tracking Matrix, in the three weeks between March 30 and April 19, 2022, around 12,192 people were recorded on the move, an increase of around 62 percent over the previous three-week period. The main reasons for movement include the intention to return to the place of origin (71 percent) and due to attacks (19 percent). The other 10 percent are due to households searching for livelihoods/opportunities (3.5 percent), unify/join family (3.5 percent), and fear of attacks (3 percent). The level of needs remains high, with most IDPs expected to remain dependent on emergency humanitarian assistance to fill gaps in their food consumption. Most IDPs remain dependent on humanitarian food assistance, income from selling gifts/aid, and limited skilled and casual work opportunities. If households earn income, most are spending their income to purchase food. With the gradual improvement of the security situation, humanitarian assistance is increasingly accessing new places that were previously not accessible such as Nangade and Macomia districts. In areas where humanitarian food assistance (HFA) is regular and supports at least one in five households with 25 percent of food needs, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) prevail.

Satellite-derived remote-sensing data and field information indicates that most crops for the 2021/2022 agricultural season are already in the maturation and harvesting stages across Mozambique. The harvest is continuing in the south and parts of the center, with the consumption of green food already taking place in the north. Due to the delay in the start of rains, the main harvest began 10 to 30 days later than normal. Overall, national agricultural production is expected to be lower than last year due to reduced crop yields and crop losses caused by flooding, wind damage, and prolonged dry periods. A significantly below-average to failed harvest is likely in Maputo, Gaza, Inhambane provinces, and in the southern areas of Manica, Sofala, and Tete provinces. Some districts in northern Manica, such as Macossa and Tambara, have also been affected by dry spells and abnormally high temperatures. If households have access to vegetable seeds, flood-affected and low-lying areas are likely to have sufficient soil moisture for good vegetable production during the second season (March to September), particularly following moderate rainfall in April in the southern and central zones.

From February to March 2022, maize grain price data from the Agricultural Markets Information System (SIMA) indicated that maize grain prices remained unusually stable or even increased, including a 15 percent increase in Manica when maize grain prices are typically declining. This is likely driven by delays in the supply of maize from the recent harvest. However, in the Tete city market, the Maputo market, and the Mutarara market, maize grain prices declined by 6 to 46 percent as the harvest in the area improved market supply. Maize grain prices in March 2022 were 6-52 percent lower than prices last year due to above-average maize availability during the 2021/2022 marketing year (April 2021-March 2022), but in Chókwe, Massinga, and Montepuez, maize grain prices were similar to last year. Similarly, maize grain prices in March 2022 in most monitored markets was 5-39 percent below the five-year average, except in Montepuez, Manica, and Nampula, where the maize grain price was 41, 9, and 6 percent above the five-year average. In Montepuez, located in Cabo Delgado province, high prices are likely due to the conflict affecting normal supply levels, while above-average prices in Manica and Nampula are likely due to increased demand from households with below-average food reserves and below-average availability of maize grain in those markets. As typical, maize meal prices were stable from February to March 2022 in all monitored markets, except in Lichinga, where maize meal prices increased by 27 percent following a 12 percent drop the previous month. In March 2022, maize meal prices were stable or below last year's prices, except in Angónia, where maize meal prices were 11 percent above prices last year. Compared to the five-year average, maize meal prices had a mixed trend in March 2022 due to local supply and demand dynamics. As typical, rice prices were also stable from February to March 2022 across all monitored markets and had mixed trends due to local supply and demand dynamics compared to prices last year and the five-year average.

The National Statistics Institute (INE) indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the first quarter of 2022 increased by around 3.34 percent, with Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages and Transport increasing by 1.8 and 0.9 percent, respectively. However, annual inflation did ease for the second month to 6.67 percent from 6.84 percent in February. There was a deceleration in food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, but inflation did increase for transportation to just over 10 percent since October 2021. However, the cities of Nampula, Maputo, and Beira recorded the largest increases in CPI compared to last year, with the CPI increasing by 7.96 percent, 6.63 percent, and 5 percent, respectively. The increase in transportation prices and living costs in urban areas will likely impact poor urban household purchasing power.

Following the start of the conflict in Ukraine in February and the subsequent increase in global fuel prices, domestic fuel prices increased by 5-15 percent in mid-March, resulting in increasing public transportation fares. Similarly, cooking gas, gasoline, and diesel prices remain 12 to 15 percent higher than in October 2021, along with paraffin remaining 5 percent higher. The increase in the price of transport tariffs is likely to result in direct and indirect increases in the price of food and non-food items. The national bakery association is also considering raising the price of bread due to the increase in global wheat prices. The increase in fuel and bread prices will likely reduce the purchasing power of households, particularly very poor and poor households in urban and peri-urban households. Additionally, the increase in the CPI is likely to counter the recovery of poor households who have increased their access to income-earning opportunities following the significant relaxation of COVID-19 control measures. Increases in global grain prices, particularly for imported goods like wheat, are likely to increase domestic prices over the projection period. However, the current national harvest and good regional production of staple foods is likely to supply markets through September. However, further increases in fuel prices will likely increase transportation costs and be passed on to consumers. In particular, urban and peri-urban households are likely to be the most affected by increases in the consumer price index as they rely primarily on market purchases, while rural households are likely to rely on their own production for food.

In March, WFP and humanitarian partners assisted around one million beneficiaries in Cabo Delgado and Nampula with full rations, around 137,000 more beneficiaries than in February. Additionally, WFP assisted around 25,000 beneficiaries in Nangade district, Cabo Delgado, for the first time since 2019 and resumed HFA distribution in Macomia district-also in Cabo Delgado-in April. Around 61 percent of the HFA was provided via in-kind assistance, 38 percent via voucher, and 1 percent via Immediate Response Rations (IRRs), which targets populations on the move or in hard-to-reach areas. However, due to limited resources in April and May, WFP is distributing half rations equivalent to 39 percent of a 2100 kilocalorie diet to around 850,000 people in Cabo Delgado and 74,000 in Nampula and Niassa. Other humanitarian organizations continue to focus on livelihood assistance, treatment of malnutrition, shelter, WASH, and education activities. However, WFP is warning that there is a potential pipeline break in June if further funding is not secured soon. WFP expects to move towards prioritized targeting of the most vulnerable populations, including IDPs and host communities, once the Vulnerability Based Targeting exercise is finalized in the last quarter of 2022. Targeted humanitarian assistance is also taking place in areas affected by Cyclone Gombe and related floods, with WFP assisting around 99,000 people for three months in the provinces of Zambezia and Nampula. Humanitarian needs are expected to remain high in conflict, flood, and drought-affected areas, even following the start of the harvest in April and May.

Most of the assumptions used to develop FEWS NET's most likely scenario for the Mozambique Food Security Outlook for February to September 2022 remain unchanged except for the following:

• Maize grain prices in the national reference market of Manica are expected to begin declining from the end of April as the incoming harvest begins to reach local markets. However, prices are not expected to reduce as typical due to increased demand. Globally, maize prices are expected to increase due to strong demand for food, seed, industrial uses, and tighter stocks.
• Following improved rainfall in April, second season production is expected to be above-average in Maputo province, the central region, and the southern and coastal areas of the northern region. Second season production is likely to be average in the interior of Gaza and Inhambane.
• An increase in global crude oil and wheat prices is likely to drive increases in fuel and bread prices in Mozambique. A rise in transportation and bread prices is likely to reduce household purchasing power and limit the recovery of poor households, particularly urban poor households, following the relaxation of COVID-19 control measures. 

In April and May, most poor households in Mozambique will be facing None (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, supported by access to food from their own production and household food reserves. The ongoing harvest will also gradually reduce household dependence on market purchases. However, in most of Gaza and Inhambane provinces, southern Tete, and parts of Sofala and Manica provinces, poor households are likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), as they atypically depend on food purchases from the market due to a late harvest or a significantly below average or failed harvest. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will also prevail in areas affected by Tropical Storms Ana and Dumako and Tropical Cyclone Gombe due to damage to infrastructure and disruption of basic livelihood activities. Households with access to vegetable seeds are expected to be planting, with an anticipated second season harvest occurring from July to September. In Cabo Delgado, the conflict and insecurity are likely to limit income-generating opportunities and agricultural or casual work opportunities for many displaced households. Areas directly affected by the conflict are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) but Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) are expected in areas where humanitarian partners have access.

From June to September, most poor households will continue to have access to food from their own production and will continue to experience None (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. Many Stressed (IPC Phase 2) areas in the central zone will remain stable due to access to delayed harvests and some second season and post-flood production. However, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely start emerging in the districts of Ilha de Moçambique, Liupo, Mogincual, Monapo, Mossuril, and Meconta due to limited access to food and income-earning opportunities, and the weakening capacity of host communities to support storm and flood-displaced households. The most affected poor households will not be able to recover through post-flood production due to a lack of seeds and limited labor opportunities for income. In the inland areas of Gaza and Inhambane provinces and southern Manica and Sofala provinces, where main season production was severely affected by below-average rainfall and unusually high temperatures, poor households will intensify their typical livelihoods strategies, but the poorest households, who have few or no livestock and little to no capacity to produce charcoal, will reduce spending on non-food items and adopt consumption-based coping strategies such as skipping meals, reducing the size of meals, consuming less preferred food varieties, and increasing the consumption of wild foods to minimize food consumption gaps. In drought-affected areas, household acute food insecurity is likely to begin worsening in July as low food stocks, high market demand, and limited access to income results in the poorest households with limited resources engaging in more severe survival strategies, such as withdrawing children from school- unless meals are provided there- or sending family members to eat elsewhere. An increasing number of poor households are expected to require emergency food assistance to avoid the depletion of essential livelihood assets, leading to area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes well before the start of the lean season in October/November.