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Key Message Update May - September 2026 Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected due to floods, dry spells, and conflict Download report
  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through at least September in most severely affected areas of southern and central Mozambique due to flooding- and dry spells, despite the ongoing main-season harvest. Although vegetables are available for both consumption and sale, much of the supply is being imported from South Africa, which is atypical for this time of year. The impacts of flooding and dry spells, coupled with the slow recovery from previous shocks, are expected to constrain household access to food and income until second-season harvests begin in June and gradually improve local availability. From June to September, food security outcomes are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) across the south and in areas of the center, driven by increased food availability and income from second-season and post-flood harvests. In the southern region, the expected improvement is driven by seed assistance that supported replanting using residual moisture. 
  • In the conflict-affected areas of northern Mozambique, including Cabo Delgado and northern Nampula, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through at least September, due to farmers’ limited access to their farmlands. A below-average harvest is anticipated, driven by continued insecurity, displacement, and disrupted markets and livelihoods, while conflict-driven population displacement increases pressure on the limited local resources. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in less conflict-affected areas of the north as the impacts are less severe and the harvest improves food and income access. 
  • A FEWS NET field assessment conducted in Gaza Province in May 2026 confirmed that severe flooding in January and March, compounded by a February dry spell, led to the loss of nearly 41 percent of planted crops and reduced production prospects, according to Gaza Provincial Agricultural Services. The below-average harvest has decreased food from own produced foods, increasing reliance on markets for food. While poor households earn income through agricultural labor and petty trade, earnings remain below average and are insufficient to support adequate market purchases amid high food prices. As poor household food access declines, they are forced to engage in coping strategies such as reducing meal frequency and portion sizes. 
  • Findings from FEWS NET’s May field assessment in Cabo Delgado confirmed that ongoing insecurity and displacement continue to restrict farmers’ access to agricultural land and disrupt livelihood activities, resulting in a below-average harvest in affected areas. However, in areas with lower levels of conflict, the ongoing harvest is improving household food availability and access. Increased market supplies from local production and imports are also contributing to seasonal declines in staple food prices. 
  • Maize grain prices in southern Mozambique increased by up to 10 percent in April compared to March 2026, a deviation from the typical seasonal trend of declining food prices following the harvest. While maize prices are 10 to 20 percent below April 2025, they remain 25-35 percent above the five-year average in the south. The elevated maize prices are mainly due to a below-average market supply caused by weather shocks during the 2025/26 season, which reduced production in the southern region to below-average levels. In contrast, maize grain prices in central and northern Mozambique declined by an average of 10 percent, supported by improved availability from ongoing harvests and increased supply. 
  • In May, the Government of Mozambique revised fuel prices upward to align with international market rates. As part of this adjustment, gasoline prices increased by 12.1 percent and diesel prices by 45.5 percent. The higher fuel costs are expected to increase transportation expenses and place upward pressure on staple food prices across the country in the coming months. Although the government has announced plans to maintain current transport fares through subsidies for public transportation, implementation is likely to be delayed by administrative requirements. Meanwhile, transportation costs are already increasing in some areas, and traders are likely to pass these higher operating costs on to consumers through higher food prices. Poor urban households that rely heavily on market purchases are expected to be most affected, as limited income-earning opportunities will further constrain their purchasing power.
  • In April 2026, humanitarian food assistance was provided to approximately 335,000 people, mainly in Cabo Delgado, Gaza, and Nampula provinces, according to the Food Security Cluster. Food assistance reached at least 25 percent of the total population in the covered areas of Cabo Delgado and met 40 percent of beneficiaries’ monthly caloric needs in both flood- and conflict-affected areas. By September 2026, the number of people projected to receive food assistance in Cabo Delgado is expected to range from 160,000 to 425,000. In May 2026, flood response operations assisted nearly 280,000 people, accommodated in the displacement centers. Beneficiaries received one-month food rations, return kits upon departure, and agricultural inputs to support the resumption of production activities.
 Atualização da mensagens-chave Maio - Setembro 2026 Crise (IPC Fse 3) prevista devido às cheias, estiagens e conflito Download report
  • A insegurança alimentar aguda de Crise (IPC Fase 3) poderá persistir pelo menos até Setembro nas zonas mais afectadas do sul e centro de Moçambique devido às cheias e estiagens, apesar da colheita da época principal em curso. Embora haja disponibilidade de hortícolas para consumo e venda, grande parte dos produtos é importada da África do Sul, o que é atípico para esta altura do ano. Os impactos das cheias e das estiagens, associados à lenta recuperação dos choques anteriores, deverão limitar o acesso das famílias aos alimentos e à renda até que as colheitas da segunda época comecem em Junho e melhorem gradualmente a disponibilidade local. De Junho a Setembro, a segurança alimentar poderá registar uma melhoria para ‘’Estresse’’ (IPC Fase 2) e Mínima (IPC Fase 1) em toda região sul e em algumas partes do centro, sustentada pelo aumento da disponibilidade dos alimentos e da renda provenientes das colheitas da segunda época e pós-cheias. Na região sul, a melhoria esperada será em parte resultado da assistência em sementes que assegurou o replantio usando humidade residual.
  • Nas zonas afectadas pelo conflito no norte de Moçambique, incluindo Cabo Delgado e norte de Nampula, a Crise (IPC Fase 3) poderá persistir pelo menos até Setembro, devido ao acesso limitado dos agricultores às suas terras. Poderá ser registada uma colheita abaixo da média, como resultado da insegurança em curso, do deslocamento populacional, perturbação dos mercados, dos meios de subsistência e deslocamento populacional provocado pelo conflito, que poderão aumentar a pressão sobre os limitados recursos locais. Prevê-se que a insegurança alimentar aguda de “Estresse” (IPC Fase 2) e Mínima (IPC Fase 1) ocorram nas zonas menos afectadas pelo conflito no norte, uma vez que os impactos são menos severos e a colheita melhora o acesso aos alimentos e à renda.
  • Uma avaliação de campo que a FEWS NET realizou na província de Gaza em Maio de 2026 confirmou que as cheias severas em Janeiro e Março, agravadas por uma estiagem em Fevereiro, levaram à perda de quase 41 por cento das culturas plantadas e reduziram as perspectivas de produção, de acordo com os Serviços Provinciais de Agricultura de Gaza. A colheita abaixo da média implicou uma diminuição de alimentos de produção própria, o que aumentou a dependência dos mercados. Embora as famílias pobres ganhem renda através do trabalho agrícola e de pequenos negócios, os níveis de renda permanecem abaixo da média e são insuficientes para garantir compras adequadas no mercado em meio aos altos preços dos alimentos. À medida que o acesso das famílias pobres aos alimentos diminui, elas são forçadas a adoptar estratégias de sobrevivência, como reduzir a frequência e a quantidade das refeições.
  • Os resultados da avaliação de campo da FEWS NET em Maio em Cabo Delgado confirmaram que a insegurança e o deslocamento em curso continuam a limitar o acesso dos agricultores às terras agrícolas e a perturbar as actividades de subsistência, resultando em uma colheita abaixo da média nas zonas afectadas. No entanto, em zonas com menor incidência de conflito, a colheita em curso tem melhorado a disponibilidade e o acesso das famílias aos alimentos. O aumento da oferta do mercado proveniente da produção local e das importações também tem contribuído para a diminuição sazonal dos preços dos alimentos básicos.
  • Os preços do milho no sul de Moçambique aumentaram até 10 por cento em Abril em comparação com Março de 2026, um desvio da tendência sazonal típica de queda dos preços dos alimentos após a colheita. Embora os preços do milho estejam na ordem de 10 a 20 por cento abaixo de Abril de 2025, estes permanecem a 25 a 35 por cento acima da média dos últimos cinco anos no sul. Os preços elevados do milho devem-se principalmente a uma oferta de mercado abaixo da média, causada por choques climáticos durante a época 2025/26, que reduziram a produção na região sul para níveis abaixo da média. Em contraste, os preços do milho no centro e norte de Moçambique baixaram em média 10 por cento, sustentados pela melhoria da disponibilidade de alimentos provenientes da colheita em curso e pelo aumento da oferta.
  • Em Maio, o Governo de Moçambique reviu em alta os preços dos combustíveis de modo a alinhá-los aos preços no mercado internacional. Como parte deste ajuste, os preços da gasolina aumentaram 12,1 por cento e do diesel 45,5 por cento. Os custos mais altos dos combustíveis poderão elevar os custos dos transportes e os preços dos alimentos básicos em todo o país nos próximos meses. Embora o Governo tenha anunciado planos para manter as actuais tarifas dos transportes  através de subsídios para o transporte público, a implementação da medida poderá ser adiada por actos administrativos. Enquanto isso, os custos dos transportes já registam agravamentos em algumas zonas, e os comerciantes poderão repassar estes custos operacionais mais altos aos consumidores através de preços mais elevados dos alimentos. As famílias urbanas pobres, que dependem fortemente das compras no mercado, poderão ser as mais afectadas, já que as limitadas oportunidades de geração de renda limitarão ainda mais o seu poder de compra.
  • Em Abril de 2026, foi prestada assistência humanitária alimentar a aproximadamente 335 mil pessoas, principalmente nas províncias de Cabo Delgado, Gaza e Nampula, de acordo com o Grupo de Segurança Alimentar. A assistência alimentar cobriu pelo menos 25 por cento da população total nas zonas abrangidas de Cabo Delgado e satisfez 40 por cento das necessidades calóricas mensais dos beneficiários, tanto nas zonas afectadas por cheias quanto nas afectadas pelo conflito. Até Setembro de 2026, o número de pessoas que receberão assistência alimentar em Cabo Delgado deverá variar entre 160 mil e 425 mil. Em Maio de 2026, as operações de resposta às cheias apoiaram quase 280 mil pessoas, alojadas em centros de acolhimento. Os beneficiários receberam pacotes alimentares para um mês, pacotes de retorno após a partida e insumos agrícolas para apoiar a retomada das suas actividades produtivas.
More analysis reports View all Mozambique food security analysis reports Monthly analysis
Food Security Outlook Update Mozambique April - September 2026
Key Message Update Mozambique March - September 2026
Food Security Outlook Mozambique February - September 2026
Alerts / special reports
Special Report Global June 23, 2025
Special Report Global May 1, 2025
Monthly analysis
Food Security Outlook Update Mozambique April - September 2026
Key Message Update Mozambique March - September 2026
Food Security Outlook Mozambique February - September 2026
Alerts / special reports
Special Report Global June 23, 2025
Special Report Global May 1, 2025
Explore food security analysis data

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FEWS NET–style food security map of East Africa showing crisis severity by color, with conflict icons and alerts across Somalia, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya.
Acute Food Insecurity Area-Level Classifications

FEWS NET produces IPC-compatible area-level acute food insecurity classifications monthly for FEWS NET reporting countries. This data is available as spatial files, tabular files, and map images. It is a key output of FEWS NET integrated food security analysis and is reported in our Food Security Outlooks and Outlook Updates (FSO/U) and Key Message Updates (KMU).

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Map of East Africa with large colored circles over Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and South Sudan indicating comparative regional metrics; capitals labeled.
Acutely Food Insecure Population Estimates

These estimates reflect the total population estimated to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity outcomes, including those who are receiving humanitarian food assistance and those who are not. This tabular data is a key output of FEWS NET integrated food security analysis and is reported in our FSOs, global Food Assistance Outlook Briefs (FAOB), and semi-annual global Peak Food Assistance Needs Outlook Briefs.

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Markets and trade resources

Access FEWS NET’s market price data and analysis, plus trade flow maps.

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Monthly Global Price Watch reports

This report provides the latest outlook on global, regional, and national market trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET reporting countries and also analyzes the various drivers influencing these trends.

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Production and Trade Flow Maps

These maps display the geography of market systems and trade flow patterns for key products, including their key market towns and cross-border trade points.

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Price data

Price data is available for a large number of countries and products around the world. This data can be used to track the change in price of commodities, food staples, agricultural inputs, and other products over time and is a key input to FEWS NET food security analysis and Global Price Watch reports.

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Agroclimatology resources

Access FEWS NET’s remote sensing data and analysis of weather conditions.

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Weekly Global Weather Hazards reports

This report provides a global outlook on anticipated severe weather events, including maps with current weather information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to one week), and the potential impact on crop and pasture conditions.

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Seasonal Monitor reports

This report provides regional updates on weather events, rainfall patterns, and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, water availability) during a given geography’s rainy season, along with a short-term rainfall forecast.

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Agroclimatology data

FEWS NET and its partners offer a range of online tools that share insights on rainfall, temperature, vegetation, soil moisture, and surface water conditions derived from remote sensing data collection and modeling.

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Livelihoods resources

Access FEWS NET’s maps, reports, and data on local livelihood systems.

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Mozambique 2014 Livelihood Zones Map (.PNG)
Livelihood Baselines

Baselines provide quantitative analysis of household livelihood options. It includes a detailed breakdown of food, cash, and expenditure patterns. The Baseline also highlights market patterns, seasonality, and coping strategies. 

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Livelihood Zone maps

Zone Maps illustrate the country by zone, showing areas where people generally have the same options for obtaining food and income and engaging in trade.

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Livelihood Zone Descriptions

Zone Descriptions accompany a Zone Map, briefly describing the main characteristics of the livelihood patterns in that zone. The maps and descriptions are useful in informing the development of monitoring systems.

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Livelihood Seasonal Monitoring Calendar

Seasonal Monitoring Calendars combine a Seasonal Calendar with information on food and income sources by wealth group. The document highlights the variables important to each wealth group by zone. The calendar is a good reference in developing a monitoring plan.

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Seasonal Calendar

These calendars illustrate the monthly availability of key food and income sources, plus the starts and ends to key rainy and lean seasons. They supplement livelihoods resources and are integral to FEWS NET’s food security analysis.

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Seasonal Calendar image showing harvest and rainy periods for Mozambique
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