Atypically early start to the lean season as Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in south

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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in several southern Malawi districts following poor harvests, above-average maize prices, and atypically low income levels. The lean season is expected to begin in October, nearly two months earlier than is typical, with the worst-affected districts including Neno, Mwanza, Blantyre, Thyolo, Mulanje, and Phalombe. Poor households in these areas face limited access to labor opportunities, reduced incomes, and above-average food and non-food item prices, all of which are eroding household purchasing power and limiting access to sufficient food.
In many of the central and northern surplus-producing regions, households are currently experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes, supported by access to own-produced food stocks from the 2025 harvest. However, as food stocks begin to deplete and households increase reliance on market purchases amid below-average income levels, some areas in the central region are expected to transition to Stressed (IPC Phase 2).
In August 2025, annual headline inflation rose to 28 percent, up from 27 percent in July. According to the National Statistical Office, annual food inflation increased to 34 percent from 32 percent, while non-food inflation remained stable at approximately 20 percent. Maize prices continued to rise, increasing by 16 percent from 1,169 MWK/kilogram in late July to 1,358 MWK/kilogram in late August. According to the International Food Policy Research Institute, maize prices increased more sharply in southern Malawi — by approximately 20 percent — compared to central and northern regions, where prices rose by around 13 percent over the same period. The price increase is associated with localized supply constraints linked to production deficits, further reducing food access for poor households already experiencing weak purchasing power.
Seasonal rainfall forecasts from FEWS NET science partners, the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum, and Malawi’s Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services suggest above-average rainfall in southern Malawi from October 2025 to March 2026 is likely. The anticipated rainfall is expected to support a timely start to the 2025/26 agricultural season and typical agricultural labor demand. However, labor opportunities are likely to remain below average due to reduced hiring capacity among better-off households following poor 2025 harvests and ongoing weak macroeconomic conditions. In central Malawi, localized areas (including Mchinji, Dowa, Kasungu, and Lilongwe) are expected to receive average to below-average rainfall between January and March 2026. Similarly, parts of the northern and central regions are expected to receive below-average rainfall during this period, potentially affecting crop development and yields in surplus-producing areas that typically supply southern Malawi during the lean season.
No new information is currently available regarding the lean season humanitarian response, and uncertainty around the humanitarian response for the 2025/26 consumption year persists. Government and humanitarian partners typically assist households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes between October and March, with food distributions historically starting around October. However, the recent election and transition to a new government are expected to delay the response planning and resource mobilization, with emergency assistance now more likely to begin toward the end of 2025.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Malawi Key Message Update September 2025: Atypically early start to the lean season as Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in south, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.