Early start of the lean season as food prices remain above average

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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in all districts of southern Malawi and one district in central Malawi, while several other districts in central Malawi are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. The current food insecurity is driven by below-average access to food and incomes due to El Niño-induced drought, limited access to labor opportunities, and above-average prices of food and basic non-food items. Rising inflation and below-average terms of trade have further diminished the purchasing power of poor and very poor households, limiting their ability to access sufficient food. However, most districts in central and northern Malawi are anticipated to face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes due to increased food availability from own-produced harvests and the sale of cash crops.
The 2024/25 lean season response program, aimed at providing humanitarian food assistance to households identified by the IPC analysis, started in Blantyre and Chikwawa districts in September, with plans to roll out to more southern Malawi districts and other parts of the country in the coming months. The Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA) has reported securing about 73 percent of the resources required for the humanitarian food assistance, and beneficiaries are expected to receive a 50-kilogram bag of maize or the cash equivalent per household per month. As this assistance is planned to cover over half of households’ monthly caloric needs, these areas are anticipated to move from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) if the humanitarian assistance is in place.
Malawi is facing a negative balance in maize supplies, with overall production 28 percent lower than the five-year average and informal imports insufficient to offset the deficit. The Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC) and the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) have only managed to purchase less than 70,000 MT, far below the 261,000 MT required to meet growing national needs, including humanitarian assistance and subsidized commercial sales. Below-average supplies are driving food prices up, forcing ADMARC to raise maize prices in September from 600 MWK to 790 MWK per kilogram, almost equal to or above the prices set by private traders. This will further restrict food access for very poor and poor households by reducing their purchasing power. Maize prices are currently about 160 percent higher compared to the five-year average, while bean prices are 190 percent higher, cassava is 160 percent higher, and rice is 130 percent higher. Meanwhile, informal maize imports have increased, with around 99,043 MT brought in from April to August 2024 as compared to 13,560 MT imported during the same period last year, representing a 630 percent increase.
According to FEWS NET and science partners, including the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) and the Malawi Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS), Malawi is expected to experience a La Niña phenomenon. This typically results in an average to above-average rainfall season in most parts of country, which could lead to average to above-average national harvests. However, certain localized areas in central parts of the country are anticipated to receive normal to below-normal rainfall from October to December 2024. From January to March 2025, the forecast predicts generally average to above-average rainfall across Malawi.s.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Malawi Key Message Update September 2024: Early start of the lean season as food prices remain above average, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.