Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists amid El Niño conditions and currency devaluation

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to persist in much of the south and in some central regions until March 2024. Poor and very poor households are coping by eating one meal a day and resorting to less-preferred and wild foods as their food stocks rapidly diminish. Maize shortages and high food prices are limiting the financial capacity of many households to access enough food. Very poor and poor households that rely on agricultural labor are earning below-average incomes due to the negative impacts of delayed rainfall on farming activities in most parts of the country. However, as of October 2023, the Affordable Inputs Program (AIP) started input distribution and reached around 22,000 farmers in Zomba, Balaka, Chiradzulu, and Karonga. The AIP is expected to benefit over 70 percent of eligible households, providing subsidized inputs.
• As the lean season approaches, significant concern looms over poor and very poor households in southern districts of Malawi, including Machinga, Mulanje, Chiradzulu, Thyolo, Chikwawa, Nsanje, Phalombe, Balaka, parts of Mwanza, Neno, Zomba, and Blantyre. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected among 5 to 10 percent of the worst-affected populations in these areas due to the effects of Cyclone Freddy. The cyclone caused substantial losses of crops, livestock, and livelihood assets. Current El Niño conditions have further restricted access to agricultural labor. Combined with recent local currency devaluation, this is reducing household purchasing power for basic food items and agricultural inputs. However, distribution of humanitarian assistance started in October 2023, targeting seven districts facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes: Mangochi, Machinga, Zomba, Phalombe, Mulanje, Blantyre, and Thyolo. Humanitarian assistance is expected to continue but is likely to be inconsistent and insufficient to change the food security outcomes of these areas.
• Malawi is expected to experience strong El Niño conditions during the 2023/24 rainy season, according to global, regional, and national rainfall models. FEWS NET science partners at USGS, UCSB, and NOAA indicate that the 2023/24 rainy season will be below average in southern Malawi, while average to above-average rainfall is expected in central and northern Malawi. Meanwhile, the southern region and some districts of the central region received little rainfall in November, and some farmers have started planting. As confirmed by the Malawi Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services, districts across the country received only scattered, light rainfall in the first few weeks of November, which generally contributed to delays in the planting of major crops. However, farmers have started planting as of mid-November, and it is anticipated crop production to be below-average. 
• The Malawian economy continues to face challenges, including a scarcity of hard currency reserves, persistent high inflation, and escalating debt repayment obligations. Recently, the Central Bank of Malawi devalued the Malawi Kwacha by 44 percent, setting it at 1,700 MWK per USD. Import cover, as reported in the October 2023 Continental Discount House (CDH) update, remains low, only adequate to sustain approximately one month of imports, despite a slight improvement during post the tobacco auction. Given the IMF's extended credit facility approval, the import cover is anticipated to gradually improve but won't fully address the overarching economic challenges. In September 2023, the year-on-year inflation rate reached around 30 percent, with food and non-food inflation rates soaring at 40 percent and 15 percent, respectively. Additionally, projections from FEWS NET-monitored markets indicate an increase in maize grain prices, expected to be 260 percent higher than the five-year average and 460 percent higher than last year's average prices. 

Recommended Citation: FEWS NET. Malawi Key Message update, November 2023. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists amid El Niño conditions and currency devaluation, 2023.