Below average 2015/16 crop production expected due to severe dry conditions

• For March, most poor households across the country are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) acute food insecurity outcomes, in the presence of humanitarian assistance. Poor households that are not receiving humanitarian assistance are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to livelihood protection deficits resulting from high food prices and food gaps due to lower than normal earnings from agricultural labor and delayed or no green consumption due to El-Niño induced drought conditions in the central and southern region. Poor households are projected to continue to face these outcomes through May.

• During the post-harvest period, June to September, poor households in most southern districts are expected to be facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes. This is because households with limited harvests, particularly in districts in the south, will start to engage in irreversible coping strategies in order to earn income for market purchases. Poor and very poor households in parts of central and northern Malawi will face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during this period, while most of these areas will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes during this period because they will be consuming their own production beginning in May with the 2016 harvest. 

• On average, maize prices in February were more than 150 percent higher than price levels back in February 2015. Similarly, average prices in February were about 155 percent above the five-year average. ADMARC continues to supply subsidized maize throughout the country. Based on earlier imports, FEWS NET estimated that supplies could run out by March or April, however stocks have increased through increased imports from Zambia and are expected to satisfy demand until the 2016 harvest in May. 

For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook/Remote Monitoring Update for February – September 2016.