Poor households face food consumption deficits atypically early in the South

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In late 2024, FEWS NET projected Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Mangochi, Nkhotakota, and Lilongwe would persist through the start of 2025. The commencement of food aid in October 2024 in parts of southern and central Malawi, including El Niño-affected districts, was expected to improve outcomes to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes persisted in central and northern areas where households had access to own-produced food and income from crop sales. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes were likely to begin in April and last through at least May due to the availability of the harvest. FEWS NET estimated that the number of people in need of humanitarian food assistance would peak at 4.0-4.99 million between January and March 2025, predominantly in southern Malawi.
Seasonal food security improvements are anticipated across northern and central parts of Malawi, supported by recent below-average harvests as households begin consuming their own-produced food. These improvements are expected to persist through at least late 2025, aligning with the start of the lean season, when households increasingly rely on market purchases. However, households in southern Malawi are likely to face short-lived stabilization in food security conditions amid the recent harvest. Poor households in these areas are expected to face deteriorating conditions due to limited agricultural labor opportunities, especially harvesting and post-harvest activities, driven by below-average crop production and the deteriorating economic situation. Overall, food insecurity is expected to deteriorate through at least December 2025, with the population in need likely to steadily increase and needs concentrated predominantly in the south.
During the 2024/25 rainy season, southern Malawi experienced atypically early rainfall starting in late October, while parts of the central and northern regions experienced a late onset, resulting in a below-average national harvest. In December 2024, poor rainfall and above-average temperatures resulted in moisture deficits, poor crop germination, replanting needs, and reduced area planted. Tropical Cyclone Chido hit southern Malawi in December 2024, causing flooding, crop damage, and delayed planting in low-lying areas. Further damage occurred in March 2025 when Tropical Cyclone Jude brought widespread flooding, crop and livestock losses, and infrastructure destruction, especially in southern districts. These cumulative shocks led to a significantly below-average 2025 harvest in several southern districts (Neno, Mwanza, Blantyre, Phalombe, Mulanje, and Thyolo).
According to key informants, the 2025 staple harvest is estimated to be 65-75 percent below the five-year average in districts of Neno, Mwanza, Blantyre, Phalombe, Mulanje, and Thyolo. Typically, food consumption gaps are expected around December, when most households exhaust food stocks from their own production and begin relying on markets for food. Households in these areas are expected to experience worsening conditions roughly two months earlier than normal, especially poor households, who will likely face reduced income and high food prices. As a result, food assistance needs are expected to increase atypically early towards the end of 2025, with needs concentrated in the south.
As the 2025 tobacco auction season nears the end, approximately 162 million kilograms (kg) of tobacco have been traded (93 percent of the production) on auction floors nationwide: a 23 percent increase compared to the same period in 2024. Despite the higher volumes, the national average tobacco price has declined by 14 percent, from 2.97 USD/kg in 2024 to 2.55 USD/kg in 2025. The total foreign exchange earnings have slightly increased from about 393 million USD in 2024 to around 413 million USD this year due to increased production, according to Tobacco Commission Market Data (July 2025). Despite lower unit prices, total revenue surpassed last year’s levels, benefiting poor households in tobacco-growing districts by generating more labor opportunities and increasing their income.
In June, annual headline inflation decreased slightly from 27.7 percent in May to 27.1 percent. The annual food inflation rate decreased from 32.7 percent to 31.6 percent, while non-food inflation remains stable around 20 percent, according to the National Statistical Office. The International Food Policy Research Institute reported an 8 percent increase in maize prices, rising from 951 MWK/kg in May to 1,031 MWK/kg in June, approaching the government-set minimum farmgate price of 1,050 MWK/kg. Prices are expected to rise further through late 2025 as more households exhaust food stocks and increase reliance on and competition for expected below-average market supplies. General elections are planned for mid-September, and the risk of post-election unrest could disrupt trade flows, particularly in southern deficit areas, which could drive higher prices than currently anticipated during the lean season and further constrain food access for poor households.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Malawi Key Message Update July 2025: Poor households face food consumption deficits atypically early in the South, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.