Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is widespread in the south during the lean season

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected across southern Malawi and localized areas of central Malawi through the peak of the January to March 2026 lean season. These outcomes are driven by the depletion of household own-produced food stocks following below-average 2025 harvests and limited purchasing power. Exceptionally above-average food prices and atypically low agricultural labor demand are expected to erode poor households’ purchasing power, constraining household access to market purchases. In contrast, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in the remaining central and northern districts, supported by own-produced food stocks and typical income from tobacco sales and agricultural labor.
• Seasonal improvements in households’ food access, particularly in central Malawi, are anticipated in April and May 2026, driven by the likelihood of a 2026 average harvest and subsequent increases in income from crop sales and agricultural labor. As a result, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will most likely emerge in April and May 2026. In contrast, northern Malawi is expected to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, except for parts of Karonga District, where Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to continue.  
• Southern Malawi remains the area of highest concern, with widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Neno, Mwanza, Blantyre, Thyolo, Mulanje, Phalombe, Chikwawa, and Nsanje districts. Poor households are increasingly reliant on market purchases amid constrained purchasing power following atypically below-average crop production during the 2024/25 season.
• FEWS NET estimates that between 2.0 to 2.49 million people will require humanitarian food assistance during the upcoming January to March 2026 lean season. A decreased number of people requiring assistance compared to the previous lean season, January to March 2025, is attributed to modest improvements in national maize production (approximately 5 percent higher than last year). Plans for humanitarian food assistance distributions are not yet finalized and are likely to be delayed due to transitions to the newly elected government. 

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 22, 2025. 

Agriculture is central to Malawi’s economy, supporting the livelihoods of over 80 percent of the population and providing employment and income for the majority of the workforce. While small-scale and subsistence farming dominate the crop production sector, commercial farming makes a major contribution. The main crops cultivated include maize (the staple food critical for household food security), as well as tobacco, tea, and sugarcane (the main cash crops grown for both domestic consumption and export). The northern and central regions are known for surplus production, helping to offset the deficits in the south, where small landholdings, poor soil fertility, recurrent climatic shocks, and semi-arid conditions limit production. 

The rainy season (October-March) influences crop production activities, and subsequently the availability of agricultural labor opportunities, leading up to and during the main maize harvest (typically April-August). The start of the main harvest coincides with the end of the typical lean season (December to March) and the start of the consumption year, key timing given the importance of crop production and income sources for poor and rural households. In February (just before the lean season ends), agricultural activities such as weeding do typically provide increased employment opportunities. Agricultural activities on irrigated farms also enhance labor demand, typically beyond the main harvest season and through November. Irrigated winter crop production supplements the main harvest, providing households with additional food, income sources, and stabilized prices due to increased food supply in local markets. Winter planting typically occurs between April to August in lowland areas that benefit from the residual moisture or access to irrigation facilities, with the winter harvest typically expected from September to November.

Tobacco plays a crucial role in Malawi’s economy, serving as a source of hard currency, strengthening the country's foreign exchange reserves, and supporting overall economic stability. Tobacco production is highly labor-intensive, involving planting, tending, harvesting, curing, processing, and auctioning, and provides widespread employment opportunities and household income, particularly for the poor. The tobacco auction season, which begins in April/May and continues through August/September, attracts traders, buyers, and day laborers from across the country. However, the sector faces persistent challenges, including limited input supply and volatile market conditions, which can negatively disrupt the tobacco value chain.

Malawi's food security is highly susceptible to climate shocks and natural disasters, frequently disrupting agricultural production. Periodic droughts and floods have destroyed crops, leading to reductions in food availability and income-earning opportunities. Severe droughts linked to El Niño in 2015, 2016, and the 2023/24 season, along with flooding from Tropical Cyclones Ana and Gombe (2021/22), Freddy (2023), Chido (2024), and Jude (March 2025), caused major reductions in maize and other food crops, particularly in the southern part of the country where the cyclones hit. 

High rates of poverty in rural areas and unemployment in towns limit households' capacities to purchase sufficient food, generate income, and access agricultural inputs. The country’s broader economic instability often leads to sharp price increases, resulting in above-average costs for locally produced and imported food, essential non-food items, fertilizer, and fuel.

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Latest Country Food Security Outlook: August 2025 to January 2026
• Latest Country Key Message Update: September 2025
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology
• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need  
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis
• FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis

Weather: The 2024/25 rainy season in Malawi was characterized by irregular rainfall patterns, combined with dry spells and late starts which contributed to a notable below-average harvest in southern Malawi and national maize production that is around 22 percent below the five-year average. Tropical Cyclone Chido and Jude (late 2024 and early 2025) caused widespread flooding, crop and livestock losses, and infrastructure damage, primarily in southern Malawi. Although short-lived rainfall improvements occurred in March in northern areas, Mzimba and Karonga remained dry with rainfall among the lowest on the record (Figure 1) leading to wilting of crops and eventually below-average crop production. As a result of these climatic shocks, household food stocks are below average, leading to earlier-than-normal depletion and increased reliance on market purchases.

Macroeconomic conditions: Poor macroeconomic conditions persist, driven by high headline inflation, continued currency depreciation, and rising import costs. The MWK continues to weaken in the parallel market (trading around 4,300 MWK/USD), while the official rate remains fixed at 1,750 MWK/USD. The wide exchange rate disparity has significantly increased the cost of imported goods. Fuel shortages persisted in September 2025, compounded by a sharp increase in fuel prices in early October — petrol by 38 percent and diesel by 28 percent — following government adjustments to reflect elevated import costs and exchange rate disparities, according to the Malawi Energy Regulatory Authority. Higher fuel costs have driven up transportation and commodity prices, further weakening household purchasing power. According to the National Statistical Office, in September 2025 Malawi’s annual headline inflation rose to 29 percent, up slightly from 28 percent in August, while food inflation eased to 33 percent, down from 34 percent the previous month. Non-food inflation rose to 22 percent from 20 percent over the same period. 

Food prices: Food prices remain notably above-average. In Mitundu, a national reference market for FEWS NET, maize prices in September were approximately 200 percent above the five-year average and 76 percent higher than prices recorded during the same period last year, according to data from International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). This sharp increase reflects ongoing market pressures and reduced national supply. Regional price variations persist, with the highest maize prices observed in southern Malawi markets, followed by central and northern regions.

Agriculture labor: As the 2025/26 agricultural season approaches, agricultural labor demand is gradually increasing with the onset of land preparation activities. However, overall demand remains below average, as better-off households reduce hiring due to constrained financial capacity.

Food availability: The Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation and the National Food Reserve Agency are facing serious challenges in maintaining adequate maize stocks due to limited funding. As of October, stock levels at both institutions are atypically below average, reducing their capacity to stabilize markets and respond to acute food needs. 

Crop production: Maize production in Malawi during the 2024/25 agricultural season was approximately 22 percent below the five-year average, driven by poorly distributed rainfall as well as reduced access to agricultural inputs. Substantial regional disparities were observed, with southern districts — particularly Neno, Mwanza, Mulanje, Thyolo, and Phalombe — experiencing the most severe impacts. In these areas, maize production declined by up to 75 percent compared to the five-year average. Production in central and northern regions was also below average, though to a lesser extent.

Tobacco sales: In the 2025 tobacco marketing season, 214 million kilograms were sold and generated 535 million USD, which was above-average compared to the previous year and the five-year average. 

Import-export and foreign reserves: According to the Reserve Bank of Malawi, the country’s trade deficit widened to 1.7 billion USD during the first eight months of 2025, driven by persistently high import costs relative to export earnings. Total foreign exchange reserves in August 2025 declined to an estimated 521.9 million USD (equivalent to 2.1 months of imports) from 607.7 million USD (2.4 months of imports) in July 2025 and 544.8 million USD (2.2 months of imports) in August 2024. This imbalance continues to contribute to macroeconomic instability (exchange rate crisis) and constrain the government’s ability to finance essential imports, such as fuel, food, fertilizer, and medicine.

Humanitarian food assistance

FEWS NET has no new information regarding planning or availability of emergency food assistance for the upcoming lean season, and uncertainty persists for the 2025/26 consumption year. Historically, the government and humanitarian partners provide assistance to households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes between October to March. The recent election and transition to a new government is expected to delay humanitarian assistance planning and response. FEWS NET analysis has therefore not incorporated the potential impact of humanitarian assistance. 

Southern Malawi

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in southern Malawi districts, particularly within the Middle Shire, Lake Chirwa-Phalombe Plain, and Thyolo-Mulanje Tea Estate livelihood zones, driven by crop production shortfalls and declining income-earning opportunities following consecutive shocks over the past three years. According to a FEWS NET field assessment conducted in September 2025, poor households are experiencing below-average purchasing power that is limiting their access to food and are increasingly engaging in consumption-based coping strategies (such as reducing meal frequency and portion sizes and consuming less preferred foods). In Thyolo district, poor households are reportedly relying on an unpreferred mixture of dried cassava peels (considered inedible when other preferred foods are available) and maize, while some households have resorted to consuming maize husks as a cheaper alternative. A Household Economy Analysis (HEA) outcome analysis, conducted in September 2025, confirms that poor households in these livelihood zones are facing survival deficits (less than 20 percent) consistent with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Livelihood-based coping strategies are also intensifying, including atypically early labor migration to Mozambique and the sale of household assets (such as radios, utensils, and clothing) to purchase food. In the remaining southern districts, households are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes due to reduced purchasing power amid increased market dependence for food. Poor households are currently meeting their minimum food needs by cutting expenditures on essential non-food needs such as healthcare, education, transportation, and agriculture. Several southern districts reported global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates near the 5 percent threshold, indicating a potential increase toward Alert levels. In particular, Chikwawa and Nsanje districts in the Lower Shire livelihood zone recorded GAM rates of 6.2 percent during the analog lean season, placing them within the Alert classification and indicating elevated acute malnutrition levels.

Central Malawi

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are currently ongoing in parts of Salima, Lilongwe district, and Nkhotakota districts, where poor households are increasingly market dependent following unfavorable harvests and amid above-average food prices, below-average purchasing power, and reduced income-earning opportunities. FEWS NET’S September 2025 HEA indicates that very poor households in these districts are facing survival deficits consistent with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. In contrast, most surplus maize and tobacco-producing areas in central Malawi are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, supported by own-produced foods following near-average crop production and typical income from tobacco sales and agricultural labor. Although tobacco prices per kilogram were lower than the previous season, above-average sales volumes – compared to both last year and the five-year average – during the 2025 marketing season have sustained stable household purchasing power and typical hiring capacity among better-off households for the current farming season. Central Malawi reported a GAM rate of approximately 2.7 percent in the December 2024/January 2025 SMART survey (the second highest recorded since 2016, when the rate reached 3.3 percent). While this represents a slight deterioration, the rate remains within Acceptable thresholds.

Northern Malawi

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are prevalent in the Central Karonga livelihood zone of Karonga District, where below-average 2025 harvests due to mid-season dry spells, compounded by poor macroeconomic conditions, have reduced demand for agricultural labor. Poor households have already exhausted their own-produced food stocks and are increasingly dependent on market purchases amid above-average food prices. Although these households are currently able to meet their minimum food needs, they are doing so by reducing expenditures on essential non-food items such as health care and education. In the remaining northern districts, poor households continue to access adequate food stocks and earn sufficient income through typical livelihood activities. Despite localized reductions in maize and rice production, these households are able to meet both their basic food and non-food needs without resorting to negative coping strategies, sustaining Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.

• The rainfall season (October 2025-May 2026) is expected to be generally average to above average across most parts of Malawi. However, according to the Malawi Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services, uneven rainfall distribution is likely and may disrupt planting activities, hinder early crop establishment, and negatively affect crop development.
• Access to agricultural inputs is expected to be limited due to substantially above-average prices for improved seed and fertilizer, coupled with below-average incomes and reduced targeting under the government's Affordable Input Program. Most producers are expected to use low-quality seeds and apply insufficient fertilizer.
• Irrigated maize production is expected to be near average through the end of 2025 following improved rainfall during the latter half of the 2024/25 main season.
• Agricultural labor availability and wages are expected to be below average in southern Malawi due to reduced hiring capacity among better-off households following poor harvests and weak economic conditions. Average labor opportunities are anticipated in central and northern tobacco-producing districts, supported by above-average 2025 tobacco sales. Wage rates are expected to increase modestly but remain below the pace of overall inflation.
• Labor migration to Mozambique is expected to increase and is likely to start atypically early by October as opposed to December, particularly in southern Malawi, as households seek to mitigate the impact of reduced purchasing power and limited food access.
• National maize stocks will likely be below average between October and March following the below-five-year average 2025 national maize harvest. Planned imports by the Agriculture Development and Marketing Corporation and National Food Reserve Agency, along with above-average informal cross-border inflows, are likely to supplement domestic supply and reduce the estimated deficit of 755,000 MT.
• Tobacco production for the 2025/26 season is expected to be above-average, increasing labor opportunities for the poor, and it remains one of Malawi’s leading sources of foreign exchange earnings.
• Macroeconomic conditions are expected to remain constrained, with persistently high inflation, high parallel market exchange rate premiums, elevated prices for essential goods, and below-average foreign exchange reserves, which will continue to limit import capacity and contribute to rising costs of living.
• Staple food prices are expected to continue rising through February 2026 to levels above last year and the five-year average and are likely to decline in March as the green harvest becomes available.
• Livestock prices are expected to be above average, and livestock body conditions are likely to remain generally fair throughout the projection period, supported by adequate pasture and water availability.
• Informal cross-border maize imports, mainly from Mozambique, Zambia, and Tanzania, are expected to remain above average, with private traders playing a key role, offsetting the national maize deficit of more than 700,000 metric tons.
• Household purchasing power is expected to be near average nationally, while in southern Malawi, it is likely to be below average among poor households, driven by reduced income from agricultural labor and above-average food prices.
• National prevalence of GAM and severe acute malnutrition (SAM) among children under five is expected to remain above the five-year average but within Acceptable levels (less than 5 percent) through May 2026.

Humanitarian food assistance

The recent election and transition to a new government are expected to delay humanitarian assistance response planning and resource mobilization, with emergency assistance now more likely to begin toward the end of 2025. The response is expected to be limited to severely affected areas for about three to four months.

Southern Malawi

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to remain widespread across southern Malawi from October 2025 through May 2026. During the October to February period, which coincides with the peak of the lean season, poor households will continue to face constrained food access due to atypically early depletion of food stocks and reduced income from limited agricultural labor opportunities, such as land preparation, plowing, planting, and weeding. The reduced labor demand is driven by the below-average hiring capacities of better-off households following consecutive poor harvests and ongoing economic challenges. Additionally, notable above-average food prices and declining incomes will further erode purchasing power, sustaining food consumption gaps. As a result, poor households are expected to continue engaging in consumption-based coping strategies such as reducing meal frequency and portion sizes, consuming less preferred foods (e.g., cassava peels, maize husks), and skipping meals. Poor households will also continue engaging in livelihood coping strategies, such as selling productive assets, to buy food. The recent HEA outcome analysis confirms that very poor and poor households are expected to continue experiencing survival deficits of less than 20 percent, consistent with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, through at least March 2026. Some seasonal improvement in food access and consumption is anticipated between April and May 2026, as households begin consuming own-produced food and earning income from crop sales and agricultural labor from the expected near-average harvest. Harvesting labor will also support typical incomes during this period. These seasonal improvements are expected to increase households' purchasing power and lead to improved food security outcomes, from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), between April and May 2026. Despite these improvements, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist through May. Acute malnutrition levels in southern Malawi are expected to remain within Acceptable (GAM <5 percent) to Alert (GAM 5–9.9 percent) thresholds through May, following typical seasonal trends. However, as food access becomes increasingly constrained during the lean season and the incidence of waterborne diseases rises with the onset of rains, acute malnutrition is likely to deteriorate. Most districts will likely remain at the upper end of the Acceptable threshold, while districts such as Chikwawa and Nsanje are expected to reach Alert levels, with GAM rates ranging between 5 and 9.9 percent through February 2026. 

Central Malawi

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in localized areas of Salima, Lilongwe, and Nkhotakota districts through March 2026. Poor households in these areas will increasingly depend on market purchases after depleting their food stocks amid elevated food prices, limited income-earning opportunities, and constrained purchasing power. The HEA outcome analysis indicated very poor households are likely to experience food consumption gaps and survival deficits consistent with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during the October to March period. Poor households will likely continue engaging in consumption-based coping strategies such as reducing the number of meals per day, decreasing meal portion sizes, consuming less preferred foods, and skipping meals for an entire day at least once per week. Households in central Malawi are expected to improve their food security outcomes to Stressed (IPC Phase 2), driven by the likely 2026 average harvest between April and May 2026, combined with increases in income from crop sales and agricultural labor. In the remaining parts of the central region, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist from October to May, supported by continued consumption of own-produced food and access to typical income sources. Above-average earnings from tobacco sales during the 2026 marketing season are expected to strengthen household purchasing power, supporting middle and better-off households’ adequate hiring capacity, in turn allowing poor households to earn income from agricultural labor opportunities at typical levels. In central Malawi, acute malnutrition is expected to deteriorate slightly in line with seasonal trends but remain within Acceptable thresholds (GAM <5 percent). Historically, acute malnutrition levels in these areas have remained within Acceptable levels, although they typically worsen during the peak of the lean season and the rainy period, when the prevalence of waterborne diseases increases through February.

Northern Malawi

Most surplus maize- and tobacco-producing areas in northern Malawi are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes following an extremely favorable 2024/25 tobacco season, except for parts of Karonga, where Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are anticipated between October 2025 and May 2026. Despite localized, reduced maize and rice production due to mid-season dry spells in the 2024/25 production season, most households are expected to maintain adequate food stocks and access sufficient income through typical livelihood strategies to meet their basic food and non-food needs. The favorable 2025/26 staple and cash crops marketing season is expected to support typical middle and better-off households’ hiring capacity, and poor households are therefore likely to earn typical income levels, strengthening their purchasing power and sustaining food security. Similar to central areas, slight seasonal deterioration in acute malnutrition is anticipated in northern areas through February; however, levels are expected to remain within Acceptable thresholds (GAM <5 percent). While these areas have historically maintained low levels of acute malnutrition, increases are typically observed during the lean season and peak rainfall period due to reduced food access and heightened incidence of waterborne diseases.

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. 

FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

• How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario.
• How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development.