Humanitarian assistance likely to improve food security conditions in south

• From October 2024 to January 2025, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes are expected to persist in one district in southern Malawi (Mangochi) and two districts in central Malawi (Nkhotakota and Lilongwe), as humanitarian assistance will not start until December and January. However, the commencement of humanitarian food assistance in October in parts of southern and central Malawi is expected to improve food security outcomes from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). 
• From February to May 2025, households in all El-Niño-affected districts in southern Malawi and the four districts in central Malawi will continue benefiting from the humanitarian food assistance program, maintaining Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes will persist in the rest of the central and northern districts as households start accessing food from their own April/May 2023/2024 harvests and market purchases. After the end of humanitarian food assistance distributions in March, food security outcomes in April to May will likely continue to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) due to availability of 2025 own harvested crops. 
• Southern Malawi, particularly Nsanje district in the Lower Shire livelihood zone, remains the area of highest concern during the October 2024 to May 2025 period. Over half of the population in Nsanje district is experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to the El Niño-induced drought which occurred before the area fully recovered from previous flooding and waterlogging in 2023. Humanitarian assistance over the next four to five months is expected to improve the food security situation, helping the district transition from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in most of the district. 
• From October 2024 to March 2025, the government and its partners will be implementing a humanitarian food assistance program in the districts affected by the El-Niño induced drought in southern and central Malawi. The program, which is expected to last three to six months, is expected to improve food security outcomes to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!). The humanitarian assistance is expected to reach more than 25 percent of the population and cover about 50 percent of their monthly kilocalorie requirements in several districts. FEWS NET estimates that the number of people who need humanitarian food assistance to prevent Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will peak at 4.0-4.99 million between January and March 2025, predominantly in southern Malawi. 

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 20, 2024. 

El Niño-induced drought leads to early lean period

Most southern Malawi districts recorded very low rainfall (about half of normal levels) in the 2023/24 season, linked to the impacts of El Niño. Rainfall was irregularly timed, with dry spells lasting over a month, resulting in an approximate 50 percent loss in staple food production against the five-year average and related losses in alternative staple/cash crops, with some households harvesting nothing at all. Labor opportunities are below average, resulting in reduced incomes among very poor and poor households who depend on labor income to meet food and essential non-food needs. In combination with low or no access to own-produced food due to the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Freddy in 2023/24 and El Niño-induced dry spells in the 2024/25 production years, an increased number of households are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. 

High numbers of households are food insecure amid an atypically long lean season due to atypically high food (43.5 percent) and non-food inflation (21.8 percent) as of September 2024; below-average household food stocks due to below-average production; and reduced income due to decreased local labor opportunities. Very poor households in all southern Malawi districts and Salima, Lilongwe, Mchinji, and Nkhotakota districts in central Malawi are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) for most of the 2024/25 consumption season. According to FEWS NET historical data, Malawi has been registering an average of 2 million people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes on a yearly basis since 2021. FEWS NET estimates that this will likely peak to 4 to 5 million people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in January to March 2025, following the seasonal trends, but repeated climatic shocks are contributing to a rapid increase in people who require urgent humanitarian assistance. 

Crop production levels have declined for most major crops in the 2023/24 production season, driven primarily by weather hazards and crop pests. Due to El Niño-related weather conditions, over 1 million hectares (ha) of cropped land were affected by severe dry spells and about 700,000 ha were infested by fall armyworms. In low-lying areas, 11,374 ha were affected by floods and hailstorms. Production of maize — the main staple — is estimated at 2,712,578 MT compared to 3,509,837 MT last year (a 23 percent decrease) and the five-year average of 3,797,096 MT (a 29 percent decrease). Several districts reported production declines of other key crops (e.g., millet, sorghum, soybeans, and cotton) (Table 1). Overall, production in the central and southern regions decreased compared to last year (by 24 and 40 percent, respectively), but increased in the northern region (by 17 percent). Tobacco production increased by 10 percent compared to last year and 5 percent compared to the five-year average, fetching incomes 25 percent above last year and 50 percent above the five-year average. Income from tobacco sales at the various auction floors plays a critical role in boosting foreign reserves and providing income-earning opportunities for poor households and enhancing their purchasing power. 

Malawi’s economy has been registering slow growth since 2019, exacerbating acute food insecurity via rising food prices and reduced income-earning opportunities. Malawi’s GDP growth rate fell from 5.5 percent in 2019 to 1 percent in 2020. Since the start of 2024, Malawi has been registering high annual headline inflation rates ranging from 30 to 35 percent, and foreign exchange imports covered only about two months in October 2024, below the recommended minimum of 3.9 months (Reserve Bank of Malawi). The Malawi Kwacha (MWK) has depreciated steeply from 824 MWK/USD before May 2022 to 1,750 MWK/USD in October 2024, representing around 110 percent loss of value. Very poor rural households who rely on food purchases for half of the year, and low-income urban households who survive on a very low minimum wage, are experiencing eroded purchasing capacity. These rural and urban low-income households are failing to earn enough income to meet their essential food and non-food needs. However, according to the February 2024 Malawi Economic Report, the GDP is expected to grow from 1.6 percent in 2023 to about 3 to 4 percent by the end of 2024. This growth is expected to speed up the reconstruction of damaged infrastructure, restart farming activities, create employment opportunities to some extent for poor households, and gradually enhance household purchasing power, enabling access to staple foods from the local market.

Agriculture plays a major role in Malawi's economy, sustaining the livelihoods of over 80 percent of its population. The agriculture sector provides employment and income for a majority of the workforce. Small-scale and subsistence farming dominate the crop production sector, but commercial production significantly contributes to GDP. The main crops cultivated include maize — the main staple food critical for household food security — and tobacco, tea, and sugarcane, cash crops grown for both domestic consumption and export. The October to March rainy season (Figure 1) dictates crop production activities and access to employment opportunities, with the main harvest of maize typically occurring from April to August. Given the importance of crop production for rural households, the start of the harvest in April marks the end of the typical lean season and the start of the next consumption year.

In October, land preparation for the next rainy season intensifies alongside harvesting activities on irrigated farms, leading to peak agricultural labor demand, which is anticipated to continue through mid-2025. The northern and central regions are known for surplus production, and the southern regions typically face deficits due to small landholding, poor soil fertility, and the semi-arid nature of the area. Typically, surpluses from the north and center help mitigate shortages in the south. Irrigated winter crop production supplements the main harvest, providing households with additional food and income sources and increasing the food supply in local markets, stabilizing food prices. Winter planting typically takes place from April to August in lowland areas using residual moisture or access to irrigation facilities, with the winter harvest expected from September to November.

Tobacco plays a particularly crucial role in Malawi’s economy, serving as a source of hard currency, contributing to the country's foreign exchange reserves, and supporting overall economic stability. Tobacco production is highly labor-intensive (involving planting, tending, harvesting, curing, processing, and auctioning), creating employment opportunities and supporting household income, particularly for the poor and very poor. The tobacco auction season, which begins in May and continues through August/September, attracts traders, buyers, and day laborers from across the country. Limited supply of inputs and fluctuating markets are some of the challenges to the tobacco industry and can negatively disrupt the tobacco value chain.

Malawi's food security is highly susceptible to climate disruptions and natural disasters, which pose significant challenges to the production of food. Periodic events such as droughts and floods can destroy crops, leading to reductions in food availability and income-earning opportunities. Notably, severe drought conditions during El Niño events in 2015, 2016, and 2023/24 and flooding from tropical cyclones Ana and Gombe in 2021/22 and Freddy in 2023 led to significant reductions in the production of maize and alternative food crops in the southern part of the country where the cyclones struck. 

High rates of poverty in rural areas and unemployment in towns limit households' capacity to purchase sufficient food and required agricultural inputs. The country’s economic instability often leads to high inflation rates, driving above-average prices of locally produced food, imported food, basic non-food items, fertilizer, and fuel.

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Malawi Food Security Outlook: June 2024-January 2025
• Malawi Key Message Update August 2024
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology 
• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis
• FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting outcomes months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is the methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. The starting point for scenario development is a robust analysis of current food security conditions, which is the focus of this section. 

Key guiding principles for FEWS NET’s scenario development process include applying the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assessing acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity is a function of not only hazards (such as a drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to those hazards (for example, the household’s level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both household capacity to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future coping capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET grounds this analysis in a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods, which are the means by which a household meets their basic needs. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework. 

Key hazards 

El Niño-induced shocks: 

Malawi was impacted by El Niño-induced severe dry spells for over one month during the critical period of crop development from January to the end of February 2024. According to Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MoAFS) reports available in late April 2024, over 1 million ha of cropped land were impacted, with most of the country receiving unevenly distributed rainfall in lower amounts compared to the same time last season, leading to reduced production of major food and cash crops. Furthermore, some low-lying areas were hit by storms, localized flooding, and hail, destroying 1,374 ha of cropped land. The dry spells created favorable conditions for pests, especially fall armyworms, with MoAFS second-round production estimates in May 2024 reporting about 700,000 ha countrywide attacked by fall armyworms, further decreasing seasonal production. These disruptions have compounded the impacts of previous natural disasters, especially Tropical Cyclone Freddy. 

Macroeconomic conditions:

Poor economic conditions have led to increased inflation, hovering between 30 to 35 percent from November 2023 to September 2024, with food and basic commodity prices more than doubling in a period of three years, thereby reducing households’ purchasing power and limiting food access for very poor and poor households. In particular, maize staple prices have been increasing steeply since 2023, when the MWK was devalued. September 2024 retail prices in FEWS NET–monitored markets were trending at around 12.8 percent above the same time last year and 151 percent above the five-year average, with prices of beans at 193 percent, cassava at 161 percent, and rice at 126 percent above the five-year average.

Reduced household income:

Household incomes, especially in southern Malawi, have been below average due to reduced production of key cash crops which typically serve as a significant income source. FEWS NET’s key informant interviews also indicate that income-earning opportunities from livestock sales, labor exchange, and self-employment activities have declined due to consecutive years of acute food insecurity during which households sold assets and livestock to buy food from the market, depleting herd sizes and reducing self-employment potential. Middle and better-off houses were also forced to turn to the market for food access, reducing their hiring of poor and very poor households for labor. Additionally, FEWS NET’s Off-Own-Farm Income (OOFI) survey conducted in May 2024 has shown that the main sources of income were fetching lower incomes, with households reporting reduced quantities and wages for petty trading, agricultural labor, non-agricultural labor, and charcoal sales, hence reducing their purchasing capacities.

Crop production: 

Malawi has registered reductions in production of most key crops compared to the five-year average, mainly due to the El Niño-induced prolonged dry spells that lasted over 30 days in February 2024. Production of key food crops across the country decreased by an average of 20 percent against the five-year average. Only sweet potatoes registered a production increase (11 percent above the five-year average). The national production of maize decreased by 28 percent against the five-year average. In comparison to 2023 production, national maize production decreased by 23 percent, production in southern Malawi decreased by 41 percent, production in central Malawi decreased by 24 percent, and production in northern Malawi increased by 17 percent. 

Food availability: 

Overall, Malawi has registered a negative food balance, having produced 2,712,578 MT of maize against a 3,500,000 MT national requirement, leaving a shortfall of close to 800,000 MT which cannot be filled by alternative staples. Due to below-normal production, food stocks for most households in southern Malawi are significantly below average or depleted. Food stocks in most central Malawi households are slightly below average, while stocks in northern Malawi households are near or above the five-year average. The central and northern areas are surplus-producing areas that sell part of their produce to southern Malawi districts. On a national level, Malawi national food reserves are below average, thereby threatening the availability of maize for subsidized sales by the Agriculture Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC) and for humanitarian assistance by the Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) and National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA). In the current consumption season, NFRA reported carryover stocks of only 15,000 MT with plans to purchase a further 40,000 MT of maize mainly for humanitarian assistance. On the other hand, the other government agency, ADMARC, also plans to purchase around 40,000 MT of maize. This will bring food stocks between the two institutions to slightly below 100,000 MT, well below the required annual minimum 217,000 MT reserves set by the government. By the end of August 2024, ADMARC reported having purchased 31,000 MT of maize, and the NFRA 35,000 MT, bringing the total to 66,000 MT. The private traders through the Grain Processors and Traders (GPTA) reported between 100,000 to 150,000 MT of maize, some from the informal cross-border trade. The bulk of the maize imports are from Tanzania, as Mozambique and Zambia decided to limit the formal exports due to shortages they are facing. Between April and August 2024, Malawi imported very high volumes of maize (100,000 MT) through informal cross-border trade, the main source being Tanzania (Figure 2).

Cash crop production:

Major cash crops for Malawi households include tobacco, cotton, and pulses, soybeans, groundnuts, and pigeon peas. Some households also sell food crops such as maize and rice. Apart from tobacco, groundnuts, and pigeon peas which have registered average production, other key cash crops have registered reduced production compared to the five-year average. For example, cotton and soybean production have decreased 70 and 30 percent, respectively, compared to the five-year average. While tobacco and cotton require high investment and are common among the middle and better-off households, the production and value chains provide related income for the very poor and poor wealth via labor opportunities. The decreased production of cash crops, especially in southern Malawi, will also reduce incomes from crop sales. Tobacco production, which is dominant in central and northern Malawi, increased 10 percent compared to last year and 5 percent compared to the five-year average. Tobacco prices were 26 percent above last year’s level and generated about 40 percent more income compared to last year and about 80 percent more income compared to the five-year average. Tobacco production is critical for increasing the income of very poor households who rely on daily labor and even slightly improved national foreign exchange reserve levels. 

Off-own-farm income (OOFI):

Very poor and poor households obtain about 20 to 40 percent of their income from agricultural labor, which enables them to purchase about 20 to 30 percent of their food. In-kind food payments for labor cover a further 8 to 20 percent of their food needs. Given that agricultural activities are households’ predominant source of labor, the reductions in 2024 agricultural production have reduced labor incomes by 20 to 30 percent compared to the average. FEWS NET’s Off-Own-Farm Income survey conducted in May 2024 showed a decrease in labor access and income. Respondents attributed the reductions to the poor cropping season, below-average harvest, lack of income for middle and better-off households who typically hire labor, and reductions in irrigated farming due to poor water availability.

Respondents to the FEWS NET OOFI survey also reported reductions in other sources of income, such as petty trade (80 percent decrease), firewood sales (50 percent decrease), charcoal sales (40 percent decrease), brick making (65 percent decrease), construction labor (65 percent decrease), and self-employment opportunities (20 percent decrease). The results show a likely significant reduction in all key income-earning sources, which is leading to deficits in household food and income access.

Food prices: 

FEWS NET technical projections of maize prices are trending above average (Figure 3), with August 2024 average national maize prices at 787 MWK/kilogram (kg) (665–786 MWK/kg). Prices are higher in southern (849 MWK/kg) and central markets (788 MWK/kg) and lowest in northern markets (681 MWK/kg). The prevailing maize prices are 158 percent above the five-year average. Price increases were also recorded in alternative key foods, with beans, cassava, and rice prices 193, 161, and 126 percent above the five-year average, respectively. The high prices are further exacerbating food access constraints for very poor and poor households, which are also facing low incomes.

Humanitarian food assistance—defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher)—may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that information on food assistance is highly variable across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance); see report Annex. In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Other types of assistance (e.g., livelihoods or nutrition assistance; social safety net programs) are incorporated elsewhere in FEWS NET’s broader analysis, as applicable.

Humanitarian assistance typically takes place during the lean period (October to March) based on identified needs and estimated period of intervention. The Malawi government and its partners have planned and started implementing a lean season food assistance program from September/October 2024 ending in March 2025 in districts identified as food insecure by the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee IPC analysis. The duration of the assistance will range from three to six months, depending on the severity of the situation in each district. In the targeted districts (all 13 districts in southern Malawi and two districts in central Malawi), a range of 25 to 60 percent of the population started receiving a 50 kg bag of maize or its cash equivalent per month, thus providing about 65 percent of their kilocalorie needs. According to the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DODMA), 73 percent of the funding needed for this humanitarian food assistance had been secured by the end of August 2024. 

Based on the analysis of food security conditions, FEWS NET then assesses the extent to which households are able to meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change; FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, with a focus on assessing if these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity rather than other non-food-related factors. Ultimately, FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.

Southern Malawi: 

All southern Malawi districts are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes due to production shortfalls and reduced income access, caused by consecutive disasters in the past five years. Southern Malawi is a deficit-producing area but has the highest population of the three regions, accounting for about 44 percent of the national population but only producing about 30 to 35 percent of the national total maize production. In 2024, southern Malawi maize production was 47 percent below the five-year average and contributed only 22 percent to the total national maize output. Southern districts are therefore dependent on inflows from the center and north; below-average crop production has resulted in reduced food consumption. Similarly, below-normal production of cash crops like cotton and pulses resulted in significantly lower incomes from crop sales. FEWS NET’s assessments and Off-Own-Farm income survey also found that households were earning below-average incomes from alternative sources, while the staple food prices had more than doubled, further reducing households’ ability to purchase food. Households are currently implementing negative coping strategies indicative of Crisis, such as reducing the number and size of meals, migrating to urban areas or to Mozambique to find work, selling productive assets or taking children out of school. In extreme cases, some households resort to non-preferred wild foods that are less nutritious or even going full days without eating.

In the most recent SMART nutrition survey conducted in selected districts in April 2024, GAM rates in southern Malawi ranged from Acceptable (1.7 percent) to Alert (6.1 percent) levels, compared with a national average of Acceptable (3.1 percent). Several districts were just below 5 percent, the threshold for Acceptable levels. One district was classified within Alert levels (6 percent) during the harvest period. This indicates that malnutrition levels remain high and are likely to worsen during the lean period, despite food access typically being enhanced in the harvest period and households recently receiving humanitarian assistance. 

Central Malawi:

Most central Malawi districts are currently experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. Four districts that were severely impacted by El Niño (Lilongwe, Mchinji, Nkhotakota, and Salima) are currently facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. The central region is a surplus-producing area for both food and cash crops and is the top producer of maize and tobacco (the primary cash crop). According to Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) baseline reports, households in the central region have been less affected by severe weather hazards, such as the recent Tropical Cyclone Freddy and El Niño-induced dry spells, than in other parts of the country. Despite a reduction in food production due to El Niño, households are still expected to have adequate food stocks, generate income from cash crops like tobacco, and access sufficient labor and other income sources to meet their food and non-food needs. Additionally, the central region has historically recorded lower global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates than the national average. 

Northern Malawi: 

Most northern Malawi districts are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, except parts of Karonga district, which are Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The northern region is surplus-producing, for both food and cash crops. Additionally, the region benefits from a diverse diet that includes cassava, rice, plantains, and sour milk as alternative staples, so reduced maize production has a limited impact on household food consumption. Districts like Mzimba and Rumphi in the northern region are major producers of tobacco and maize, and districts like Nkhatabay, Rumphi, and Karonga also produce significant amounts of cassava and rice. This enhances access to food, provides labor opportunities, and increases income from crop sales. According to FEWS NET reports, the northern region consistently records the lowest proportion of food-insecure populations annually, with most areas facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. Despite reductions in food production due to El Niño, households are expected to maintain adequate food stocks and generate sufficient income to meet their food and non-food needs.

Urban areas:

Urban areas, including major cities and towns, are grappling with slow economic growth. Wages are consistently outpaced by the rising cost of food, worsened by limited income-earning opportunities. According to a survey from the Center for Social Concern, the minimum monthly cost of living for households in Malawi cities for August 2024 was around 500,000 MWK, while the government’s minimum wage remains much lower at 55,000 MWK per month. Furthermore, labor wages for informal work in urban centers is mostly below minimum wage. Due to the limited purchasing power of poor and very poor households in cities of Blantyre, Zomba, Lilongwe, and Mzuzu, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected.

The next step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

National assumptions

The most likely scenario from October 2024 to May 2025 is based on the following national-level assumptions:

• Households will likely obtain below-average 2024 harvests from irrigated (winter farming) from September to November. The 2024/25 crop production will likely be average to above average due to above-average rainfall. However, reduced access to improved seeds and fertilizers due to reductions in subsidized input program beneficiary numbers and above-average input prices on the commercial markets may result in below-average harvests among very poor and poor households.
• The maize market supply is likely to be below average due to below-normal 2024 production in most districts of the country (especially in the southern) amid increasing market dependence as the lean period begins. This will exacerbate increases in prices which are already trending nearly 160 percent above the five-year average. The opening of ADMARC markets, a government parastatal designed to stabilize prices by selling subsidized food, will have minimal impact on availability and prices. AMARC is understocked and maize prices are likely to increase throughout the lean period as the maize grain supply remains below average. 
• Informal cross-border maize imports will remain above the five-year average throughout the outlook period as the country seeks to supplement low supplies. The government of Malawi has indicated that it will not formally import maize, and traders are likely to play a major role in filling the gap through formal and informal imports, particularly from Tanzania. 
• Agricultural labor availability and wages will likely be below average in southern Malawi, where most households registered low production due to El Niño-induced drought and increased competition for limited labor opportunities.
• Livestock body conditions are expected to be poor, and livestock herd sizes will likely be below normal until December 2024, at which point the rainy season is expected to have improved the availability of water and pasture. Households are likely to increase their livestock sales through the 2024/25 pre-harvest period, particularly in southern Malawi.
• Malawi will continue to experience negative economic indicators throughout the outlook period, characterized by atypically high commodity prices leading to high inflation and atypically low foreign currency reserves. Malawi’s foreign reserves are expected to rapidly deteriorate, with the Reserve Bank of Malawi reporting that it’s import cover has declined to 2.4 months as of October 2024. 
• GAM rates for children under five will be above average throughout the outlook period. A SMART nutrition survey conducted by UNICEF and Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources (LUANAR) in April 2024 shows increased GAM rates, with a national average of 3.1 percent, up from under 2 percent in the previous three years. Southern Malawi districts are expected to experience GAM rates above the national average (from 2.5 to 6.1 percent).

Humanitarian food assistance

Humanitarian assistance that started in October is expected to continue through March 2025, and is likely to improve the food security situation, specifically in the south. Beneficiaries are expected to receive a monthly ration of 50 kg of maize for an average family size of five, which will be sufficient to cover over 50 percent of their monthly kilocalories, ranging from three to six months. The food assistance is likely to expand to the central and northern parts, though it will not be significant enough to improve food security outcomes. 

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned—and likely to be funded and delivered—food assistance. 

Southern Malawi: 

Between October 2024 and May 2025, below-average irrigated production will worsen food availability and limit access to income in southern Malawi. FEWS NET’s OOFI survey also indicates a decline in off-own-farm income opportunities, and as the lean season begins, acute food insecurity is expected to rise. The start of rainfall around October 2024 marks the beginning of the next agricultural season, which is likely to increase labor opportunities for poor households. However, middle and better-off households – affected by Tropical Cyclone Freddy in 2023 and the 2024 dry spells – will likely have below-average capacity to hire labor and labor opportunities and income levels will therefore remain below normal. The food security outcomes are expected to improve between April and May as households begin to access food from the 2024/25 harvests. Additionally, the food assistance program will enable some households to meet over half of their monthly caloric needs. Each targeted household will receive a 50 kg bag of maize per month; however, as most transfers are in-kind and only maize is being distributed (unlike previous programs that included pulses and vegetable oil) households are likely to experience poor diet diversity, which may negatively affect nutrition, particularly for young children. Southern Malawi districts are anticipated to register high GAM rates, mostly ranging from 2.5 to 6.1 percent (between Acceptable and Alert levels). The commencement of humanitarian food assistance in October is likely to improve food security conditions from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) in most districts in the southern Malawi, from October 2024 to May 2025.

Central Malawi: 

The districts of Mchinji, Lilongwe, Nkhotakota, and Salima were severely impacted by the El-Niño-induced dry spells and are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through May 2025; however, due to humanitarian assistance, parts of Salima district will likely transition to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) from October to December. Humanitarian assistance will not meet the required threshold to change Mchinji, Lilongwe, and Nkhotakota districts’ classification phase, despite humanitarian assistance likely occurring in Nkhotakota and Lilongwe districts from January through March 2025. In contrast, the remaining five districts in central Malawi are expected to maintain favorable food security and face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through May 2025.  

Northern Malawi: 

In Northern Malawi, most districts are expected to face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes from October 2024 through May 2025. However, parts of Karonga district are likely to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through May due to drought and localized flooding in the recent production season. Despite some reductions in crop production, households in northern region districts are likely to secure adequate household food stocks from their own production to meet their consumption needs. Additionally, income from the sale of food and cash crops and related labor opportunities will enable the very poor and poor households to earn income to cover their minimum food and basic non-food needs.

Urban/major cities: 

Low-income households in the five major cities of Malawi, Blantyre, Zomba, Lilongwe, and Mzuzu are expected to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through May 2025 due to ongoing slow economic growth and poor purchasing capacity. As the lean season intensifies, staple food prices will likely continue to rise significantly, impacting most residents who heavily rely on markets for food access. Moreover, wage rates remain low, with the minimum wage set at 55,000 MWK per month against a monthly minimum cost of living of over 500,000 MWK.

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National 

Late and poor start to the rainfall season 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: A late start to the rainy season and reduced rainfall amounts would lead to worsening acute food insecurity outcomes for households not targeted by humanitarian assistance, especially in southern Malawi. While an average to above-average rainfall season is being forecast in the Southern Africa region, Malawi lies on the borderline between south and east, which may affect rainfall performance, especially for the northern half of the country. The start of the rainfall season typically increases access to agricultural labor opportunities during the lean season, the major source of income for households. Lack of income and in-kind food payments from agricultural labor October 2024 through May 2025 could push some households that are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) into worse outcomes. The late start of the rainfall season could also impact water availability for human and livestock use, which is already below average in many areas. 

Further devaluation of the Malawi Kwacha

LLikely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Since May 2022, Malawi has experienced steep devaluation of the local currency, from 824 MWK/USD before May 2022 to 1,750 MWK/USD in October 2024, representing about a 110 percent loss of value. This has led to high inflation, especially for food items, significantly reducing low-income households’ purchasing power. Given that very poor and poor households depend on market purchases for food for three to six months of the consumption year, inflation has exacerbated food insecurity in both rural and urban centers. Further depreciation of the MWK would likely further increase inflation, which stood at 35 percent in August 2024, with food inflation at 42 percent. The elevated food and non-food prices would increase the number of food-insecure households, especially in southern Malawi and several central Malawi districts, until March 2025. 

Lakeshore, Shire River Valley, and other low-lying areas

Cyclones, stormy rains, and localized flooding 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Cyclones, stormy rains, and localized flooding around the shores of Lake Malawi, along the Shire River, and in other low-lying flood-prone areas across Malawi would likely result in below-average crop production and loss of household assets, exacerbating acute food insecurity. Historically, La Niña weather conditions are associated with periodic heavy rainfall and localized flooding, such as Tropical Cyclone Freddy in March 2023.