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Millions at risk due to high prices and inadequate humanitarian response funding

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Malawi
  • October 2012 - March 2013
Millions at risk due to high prices and inadequate humanitarian response funding

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  • Key Messages
  • National Overview
  • Areas of Concern
  • Other Areas of Concern
  • Events that Might Change the Outlook
  • Key Messages
    • A poor main harvest, sharply reduced labor incomes, and increasing staple food prices are putting an estimated 1.97 million people in Southern Malawi at risk of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity during this outlook period.

    • Humanitarian assistance is currently reaching approximately 700,000 people in nine districts in southern Malawi—less than half of those previously projected to be at risk of food insecurity. Assistance is planned for the remaining 900,000 by the peak of the lean season (January-March). Households in the south are currently at Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels with assistance and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels in the absence of assistance. 

    • Recently, the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) increased its estimate of the food insecure population by 21 percent (to 1.97 million people). Even with this information, future humanitarian assistance plans remain unclear due to projected funding shortfalls. If the response is discontinued or delayed during the peak of the lean season (January-March), FEWS NET projects that poor households in the south will move into Crisis and Emergency levels of food insecurity.

    • Although a normal start of the season is expected in November, with normal to above-normal rainfall in the southern region between October and December, chances for normal to below-normal rainfall levels are high between January and March 2013. If these forecasts are realized, it is likely that the same areas in the south that experienced prolonged dry spells during the 2011/12 season may be impacted again during the upcoming season.

    • In the Middle Shire and Phalombe-Lake Chilwa livelihood zones, food insecurity during the January-March 2013 period is expected to be highly dependent on the success of 90-day maize crops made possible by the input subsidy program. If program implementation is limited, or if these crops do poorly, Emergency-level food insecurity is likely in these areas.


    National Overview
    Current Situation

    The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) recently increased their estimate of the food insecure population by 21 percent to 1.97 million people. This is in line with the results of FEWS NET’s August Household Economy Approach (HEA) outcome analysis, which estimated that 1.76 million people would experience food deficits, and 670,000 people would face livelihood protection deficits in southern Malawi this year.

    Maize grain levels in the Government of Malawi (GoM) Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) are currently unknown. Private maize grain traders have approximately 30,000 MT of maize available in a number of registered warehouses within the country. The World Food Program (WFP) has recently estimated a response budget deficit of about $23 million, of which maize accounts for 44,800 MT or 80 percent of this amount.  The GoM is liaising with donors on how best to cover the needs of people in the southern region. The Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC), a government owned grain marketing board, remains the only source of affordable maize in southern Malawi.  In recent months, ADMARC market supplies in the south have not been able to meet demand; in some markets maize is being rationed at 25kg/person.  Due to dwindling stocks, ADMARC recently had to import maize from Zambia. 

    In September, the national average maize price was MWK56/kg, while prices in southern Malawi were approximately 14 percent higher. The lowest price in the south was recorded at Namwera market in Mangochi district, located in the Shire Highlands Livelihood zone, while the highest price is in Phalombe, located in the Lake Chilwa-Phalombe Plain Livelihood zone. Northern Malawi recently experienced a six percent rise in maize prices; one of the highest price increases during the consumption period. This increase is partly attributed to informal exports to Tanzania and Zambia. Markets in central Malawi also registered a two percent increase from August to September. Between August and September cassava prices dropped in the northern (0.72 percent) and central (6.53 percent) regions, but prices rose in the south by 5.11 percent. These price drops are typical for this time of year, but the increasing price of cassava in the south is atypical and probably a result of high demand for dried cassava as an alternative to maize.

    Compared to last year, informal cross-border activity has declined. Import levels between April and September are only 66 percent of the levels of last year. Overall, informal cross-border trade imports of maize between April and August decreased by 22 percent. Most maize imports to southern Malawi are no longer coming from neighboring Mozambique. Compared to the previous year, August cross-border maize imports levels from Mozambique have declined by 90 percent due to diminishing household purchasing power in maize deficit areas, which has lowered demand in local markets.

    Based on a FEWS NET field assessment in early September, most households in southern Malawi depleted their own produced maize and other cereal stocks in July. Poor households have been relying on income from extremely limited local ganyu opportunities, ganyu in Mozambique, and charcoal sales in order to access food in markets for the past few months.  In addition, some middle wealth group households in highly cash-dependent communities like Thyolo, Mulanje, Blantyre, Chiradzulu, Zomba and Machinga were unable to purchase adequate maize supplies to cover requirements and are likely to be unable to meet food needs within the next few months.

    In October, food assistance was delivered to 700,000 people. Humanitarian response has been planned for 1.63 million people, based on the June 2012 MVAC recommendation. However, starting in December, assistance that is currently underway in Chikhwawa, Machinga, Nsanje, Balaka, Blantyre, Neno, Ntcheu, Phalombe and Zomba districts could be discontinued due to funding shortfalls. Plans to initiate assistance in Dedza, Salima, Mangochi, Mulanje, and Thyolo districts are likely to be delayed.

    Food insecurity in the areas of southern Malawi where humanitarian assistance has started is currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2) while in the areas where assistance has not yet started, or is not currently planned, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes exist.

    Assumptions

    Using updated maize price projections and ganyu problem specifications, FEWS NET completed a third HEA outcome analysis in early October. This analysis focuses on some of the same livelihood zones included in earlier analyses. The October 2012 to March 2013 outlook, based on this analysis, is informed by the following national and regional level assumptions:

    Agroclimatology

    • Based on existing forecasts from SADC, IRI, and ECMWF, a normal start of the season is expected in November, followed by normal to below-normal rainfall between January and March 2013. Therefore, dry spells are expected in southern Malawi between January and March 2013.
    • Based on the recent forecast by the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DoCCMS), flooding is expected in low-lying areas between October and December. Such flooding is normally associated with crop damage and reduced production.

    Markets and Trade

    • Typically, most maize imports to southern Malawi come from Mozambique. But for the past three months, cross-border imports of maize in deficit areas have been reduced due to lower demand resulting from diminished household purchasing power. As a result, it is expected that local markets in southern Malawi will receive maize stocks from markets in the central region of the country between October and March.
    • Transport costs will continue to increase throughout the outlook period. Diesel prices increased 7 percent between July and August, and 10 percent between August and September. These rising prices are expected to continue to contribute to higher than normal prices for maize moved from source markets in the central region to deficit markets in the south.
    • Continued depreciation of the kwacha to MWK335/USD between October and December, and possibly to MWK350/USD between January and March, is expected. This continued depreciation is most likely to impact diesel and petrol prices since these commodities are imported.
    • Because local markets in southern Malawi will source maize stocks from markets located in the central region, an increase in marketing margins due to transportation cost increases (linked to the depreciation of the currency) is expected to contribute to high maize prices in the southern region.
    • Retail maize prices are expected to follow seasonal trends, peaking during the lean season in January-March. However, given that prices are already significantly higher than average, seasonal increases will result in the persistence of very high staple food prices (>84% higher than last year) throughout the rest of the consumption year.
    • ADMARC market maize supplies in the south will continue to be intermittent throughout the outlook period while being sold at the subsidized price of MWK60/kg.

    Agricultural labor

    • In the southern region, a normal start of the season should bring labor opportunities back to normal levels between October and December as middle and higher income households begin to hire for land preparation, planting, and weeding.
    • The increased chances of flooding and dry spells in the southern region between January and March could adversely impact crop yields, reducing labor opportunities.
    • Based on information from FEWS NET Mozambique, it is assumed that migratory ganyu opportunities in that country will continue to be extremely limited throughout the outlook period. Southern Malawian’s access to in-kind or cash-based ganyu opportunities in Mozambique has been reduced by heavy enforcement of informal trade restrictions this year due to the low maize production.

    Inter-annual Assistance

    • The maize input subsidy program will continue in October and November. Under this program, poor households are given coupons that allow them to buy 10 kg maize seed and 5 kg pulses seed at MWK100/pack and two bags of fertilizer at the reduced price of MWK500 each. This year, the GoM included an early maturing variety of maize that, if planted in mid-November, will allow poor households to start harvesting green foods at the beginning of February.   

    Humanitarian Assistance

    • Humanitarian assistance response programming is currently underway in Chikhwawa, Machinga, Nsanje, Balaka, Blantyre, Neno, Ntcheu, Phalombe and Zomba districts, but will likely end after November due to inadequate funding. The $23 million response plan shortfall also means that assistance plans from December through March for Dedza, Salima, Mangochi, Mulanje, and Thyolo districts are unlikely.
    • World Bank-funded GoM cash-for-work projects will be implemented for a small proportion of the food insecure population (less than 10 percent). Participating poor households can earn MWK14,400.  This money will be very helpful in meeting part of the livelihood needs.
    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    The national food security situation will remain varied throughout the outlook period. Rural households in central and northern Malawi will maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity by supplementing their food stocks through market purchases with income from casual labor. In southern Malawi, poor household food access will continue to be constrained by increasing maize prices, limited maize supplies, further depreciation of the currency exchange rate, and rising transportation costs. In general, households in the south are currently at Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels with assistance and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels in the absence of assistance.  This food insecurity is expected to persist until December (Figure 2). If current humanitarian assistance plans are discontinued or delayed due to funding shortfalls during the peak of the lean season (January-March), poor households in the south will likely experience food security Crisis and Emergency (Figure 3). The extent of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) during the January-March 2013 period is expected to be highly dependent on the success of 90-day maize crops supported by the input subsidy program. If program implementation is limited, or if these crops do poorly, Emergency-level food insecurity is expected across the Middle Shire and Phalombe-Lake Chilwa livelihood zones.


    Areas of Concern

    Lake Chilwa - Phalombe Plain (PHA) Livelihood zone in Phalombe district, parts of Mulanje, Zomba, Chiradzulu and Machinga district

    Current Situation

    Most poor households in this area finished consuming their own production in July and have depended on local market purchases since that time. Household ability to access food through markets is hampered by high maize prices and limited casual labor opportunities, resulting in poor households reducing meals to two or once per day, and sometimes going for entire days without eating. In September, Phalombe market maize prices were at MWK81/kg. These high maize grain prices have affected poor household purchasing power. Many are consuming nsima made of the less preferred maize bran or husks, with vegetables, pulses, or sauce only. Intermittent supplies of maize are available in ADMARC markets at the lower subsidized price of MWK60/kg. Due to limited casual labor opportunities, poor households are also engaging in the sale of firewood and petty trading at a very small scale. Poor households depend on income mostly from migratory ganyu labor in Mozambique and fishing ganyu labor at nearby Lake Chilwa, although this is reduced because of 1) lower than average production in Mozambique, which limited migratory labor opportunities, and 2) the drying of Lake Chilwa. Together, these factors have reduced household incomes by 50 percent, resulting in poor households’ difficulty in meeting their basic food needs. Humanitarian assistance in the form of in-kind food assistance, which began in parts of Machinga district in August, is mitigating food insecurity for those households receiving rations. However, not all households in need meet the targeting criteria being used by the GoM’s Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA), WFP, and NGOs. The criteria use proxy indicators of poverty including: households taking care of orphans, households with members who are disabled, households taking care of chronically sick persons, women-headed households, and child-headed households. This livelihood zone is classified as Stessed (IPC Phase 2), but only because current humanitarian assistance is mitigating household food deficits.  

    Assumptions

    In addition to the national assumptions described above, the following assumptions have been made about Lake Chilwa - Phalombe Plain livelihood zone:

    • Local ganyu availability and income levels will remain at half of normal levels during the October-December period. 
    • The proportion of maize grain prices attributed to transportation (diesel) costs will increase as private traders source grain from Ntcheu market in the central region.  ADMARC market stock-outs will persist throughout the outlook period.

    Maize grain prices in PHA are expected to rise ~9 percent over the remainder of the consumption year to ~MWK74/kg as a result of seasonal increases and additional transport costs associated with sourcing grain mainly from Ntcheu.

    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    Based on the October outcome analysis, FEWS NET assumes that from December 2012 to March 2013 at least 30 percent of the population will face a survival deficit of no less than 28 percent, even after engaging in various alternative livelihood strategies/activities and coping mechanisms. This food consumption gap has increased significantly since FEWS NET’s August analysis, which found food deficits in PHA to be at 16 percent. This increase is partly attributed to substantially lower levels of ganyu than originally thought. Humanitarian assistance distributions began in Machinga district in August and in Zomba and Phalombe districts in October. In the presence of humanitarian assistance, food insecurity conditions are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between October and December (Figure 2). It is expected that households experiencing serious food gaps in January will resort to green harvests as soon as mid-February. However, based on underfunding and expected in-kind assistance pipeline breaks, planned assistance coverage will likely be discontinued in this area resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions during the peak of the lean season (January-March) (Figure 3).  If the season performs poorly, a Phase 4 Emergency is likely.

    Thyolo-Mulanje Tea Estates (TMT) Livelihood zone, in part of Thyolo and Mulanje districts

    Current Situation

    In the cash-dependent TMT zone, incomes for both poor and middle household wealth groups are based on direct and indirect work on the tea estates. During this time of the year, poor households usually rely on ganyu opportunities in tea estates, but because of low production this past season, ganyu opportunities are half of normal levels. As a result, many households are coping by participating in petty trade, the sale of charcoal and firewood, eating less preferred meals, and migratory labor (mostly in Mozambique). However, these alternative livelihoods strategies/activities are currently not enough for most households to meet their basic food needs.  Both poor and middle households are unable to afford a staple maize-based diet and are instead consuming less preferred dried cassava mixed with maize bran or husks. While the cassava or maize bran is consumed with vegetable, pulses, or sauce only, most households have reduced their dietary diversity.  Anecdotal information suggests that both poor and middle households are also consuming  smaller meal portions with a reduced frequency. Frequent stock-outs and intermittent maize supplies at subsidized ADMARC means that most of the food insecure households had to purchase higher priced maize from private traders in local markets. TMT is currently not receiving in-kind food assistance and assistance is not planned in this area until January 2013. Based on the current food and labor situation in this area, acute food insecurity is at Crisis level (IPC Phase 3) in TMT.

    Assumptions

    In addition to the national assumptions described above, the following assumptions have been made about the Thyolo-Mulanje Tea Estates livelihood zone:

    • Local ganyu is expected to be half of normal levels from October to December 2012, but tea-picking ganyu opportunities are likely to increase to normal levels in January through March, offering a respite to some food insecure households.
    • The proportion of maize grain prices attributed to transportation costs will increase as private traders source grain from Dedza and Ntcheu market in the central region.  ADMARC market stock-outs will persist throughout the outlook period.

    Maize grain prices in TMT are expected to drop ~2 percent over the remainder of the consumption year to ~MWK64/kg. This new price will still be above the five-year average as a result of additional transport costs associated with sourcing grain mainly from Ntcheu and Dedza.

    • Due to dryness, area planted for irrigated farming this year is half of normal levels.  This will affect the incomes of poor households that depend on vegetable sales and green maize harvests from the wetlands during the lean period. 
    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    Based on the October outcome analysis, FEWS NET assumes that from October 2012 to March 2013 poor and middle households in TMT will face a 22 percent survival food deficit even after engaging in various alternative livelihood strategies/activities and coping mechanisms. The food security situation in this zone has worsened since FEWS NET’s August analysis, which found that food consumption gaps were at 14 percent among the poor and 15 percent among the middle wealth group. Between October and December, food insecurity conditions in this zone will continue to be at Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels for both poor and middle households (Figure 2). Even though approximately 70 percent of the population in TMT are facing substantial food gaps, humanitarian assistance is not scheduled to reach some of these areas until January 2013. Households in this area will continue to consume one meal a day and in some cases will likely skip meals altogether throughout the outlook period. Since households in this zone rely heavily on labor and tend to own small plots of land for their own production, the area is not expected to benefit from the green harvest that is expected in mid February.  With the likelihood of humanitarian assistance being discontinued in the region in December because of a lack of funding, the food situation for poor and middle households will likely deteriorate into a food security Emergency (IPC Phase 4) (Figure 3) during the peak of the lean season (January-March). 

    Lower Shire (LSH) Livelihood zone in Chikhwawa and Nsanje districts

    Current Situation

    In normal years, during the October-March period, poor households rely on ganyu opportunities in dimbas, but because of poor rainfall levels this past year ganyu opportunities are lower than usual. As a result, many households are coping by participating in petty trade, the selling of charcoal and firewood, sugar cane sales, and migration labor (mostly in Mozambique). However, these alternative livelihoods strategies/activities are not enough for many households to meet their basic food needs. Irrigated crop production activities are lower than normal because of reduced moisture in the dimba gardens due to lower than normal rainfall.  This has resulted in reduced food production in the dimba garden areas. Currently, poor households have no food stocks from own production because of the poor April/May 2012 harvest. Local casual labor/ganyu opportunities are significantly limited and competition is high for available opportunities. Since the majority of poor households depend on labor wages for market purchases, many households are not making enough to cover the costs of their basic food needs. Based on a recent FEWS NET assessment in late September, food is available in local markets but at high prices. In September, maize prices in LSH averaged MWK68/kg compared to a national average price of MKW56/kg. Poor households are currently subsisting on humanitarian assistance. According to WFP reports, the current response is adequately covering all the food needs of poor households in this zone. However, WFP noted that some individuals were not satisfied with the beneficiary selection process because they were not included on the beneficiary registers even though they are food insecure. This livelihood zone is classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2), but only because current humanitarian assistance is mitigating household food deficits.   

    Assumptions

    In addition to the national assumptions described above, the following assumptions have been made about the Lower Shire livelihood zone:

    • The proportion of maize grain prices attributed to transportation costs will increase as private traders source grain from Ntcheu market in the central region.  ADMARC market stock-outs will persist throughout the outlook period.

    Maize grain prices in LSH are therefore expected to continue to rise ~10 percent over the remainder of the consumption year to ~MWK74/kg as a result of seasonal increases and additional transport costs associated with sourcing grain mainly from Dedza and Ntcheu.

    • The forecasted drier season and reduced rainfall from January to March could affect crop growth and yields for the next harvest, while also reducing the availability of ganyu opportunities usually associated with farming activities. Local ganyu is expected to remain at about half the normal levels.
    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    Based on the October outcome analysis, FEWS NET expects that from December 2012 to March 2013 at least 30 percent of the population in the poor wealth group will face a survival deficit of >20 percent even after engaging in various forms of livelihoods activities and coping mechanisms.  However, humanitarian assistance in the form of in-kind food assistance has already been implemented in Chikhwawa and Nsanje districts since August. FEWS NET assumes that this assistance is sufficient enough for poor households to consume a normal number and size of meals. With this assistance food insecurity in this area between October and December is expected to be Stressed (Figure 2). Because there is the likelihood of continued assistance funding shortfalls and food pipeline breaks over the next few months, FEWS NET’s analysis expects conditions to deteriorate. Food insecurity is likely to peak during January. However, since the national maize input subsidy program is currently distributing an early maturing maize variety, household access to the green harvest is expected as early as mid-February. Therefore, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is likely between January and March (Figure 3).  If the season performs poorly, a Phase 4 Emergency is likely.

    Middle Shire (MSH) Livelihood zone in Balaka district and parts of Zomba, Blantyre, Neno, and Mwanza districts

    Current Situation

    In normal years, during the October-March, period poor households rely on ganyu opportunities in dimbas, but because of poor rainfall levels this past year these ganyu opportunities are lower than usual. Due to limited local ganyu opportunities, many households are coping by participating in petty trade and the selling of charcoal and firewood. Poor households are also involved in small scale mining of rare earth and semi-precious stones.  However, these alternative livelihoods strategies/activities are not enough for many households to meet their basic food needs.

    Irrigated crop production activities along the Shire River are lower than normal because of reduced moisture in the dimba gardens due to lower than normal rainfall.  This has resulted in reduced food production in the dimba garden areas. By the end of September food prices had increased at a higher rate than normal due to high fuel prices. Traders in this area are sourcing maize supplies from markets located in the central region (distances ranging from 200 km – 450 km). Intermittent supplies of maize are available through ADMARC outlets for MKW60/kg, but it is being rationed at 25kg/person. Local casual labor/ganyu opportunities are significantly limited and competition for available opportunities is high.

    Currently, poor households have no food stocks from own production because of the poor April/May 2012 harvest. Since the majority of poor households depend on labor wages for market purchases, many households are not making enough to cover the costs of their basic food needs. Poor households are currently subsisting on humanitarian food assistance. Balaka, Blantyre, and Neno districts have been receiving in-kind food assistance since September. According to WFP reports, the current humanitarian responses are adequately covering all the food needs of poor households in this zone. However, WFP noted that some individuals were not satisfied with the beneficiary selection process because they were not included on the beneficiary registers even though they are food insecure.  This may be due to other wealth groups in this area also experiencing food insecurity and requiring humanitarian assistance. Distribution of food assistance in Mwanza district has been delayed due to concerns over targeting. This livelihood zone is classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2), but only because current humanitarian assistance is mitigating household food deficits.  

    Assumptions

    In addition to the national assumptions described above, the following assumptions have been made about the Middle Shire livelihood zone:

    • Limited numbers of poor households in this area will continue to participate in small scale mining activities as a form of income generation throughout the outlook period.
    • Local ganyu is expected to remain at about half the normal levels.
    • The proportion of maize grain prices attributed to transportation costs will increase as private traders source grain from Ntcheu market in the central region.  ADMARC market stock-outs will persist throughout the outlook period.

      Maize grain prices in MSH are therefore expected to continue to rise ~15 percent over the remainder of the consumption year to ~MWK74/kg as a result of seasonal increases and additional transport costs associated with sourcing grain mainly from Ntcheu.
    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    Based on the October outcome analysis, FEWS NET expects that from December 2012 to March 2013, poor households in MSH will face a survival deficit of >20 percent. Likely humanitarian assistance between October and December will mitigate these deficits, leaving households Stressed (IPC Phase 2). After December, food insecurity for poor households is expected to worsen, peaking in January. A Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected during this period, assuming that the early maturing maize variety being distributed by the maize input subsidy program results green harvests in mid-February. If the season performs poorly, a Phase 4 Emergency is likely. 


    Other Areas of Concern

    Shire Highlands (SHI) Livelihood zone

    Under the SHI Livelihood zone, three extension planning areas (EPAs) of particular concern are Mombezi in Chiradzulu, Matapwata in Thyolo district and Ntonda in Blantyre district.  In these areas, FEWS NET’s HEA outcome analysis survival deficits are greater than 20 percent, due in large part to high maize prices.  Current maize prices are MWK80/kg; they are likely to exceed MWK90/kg in the markets in this zone throughout the outlook period.  Livelihood baselines show that 25 percent of the population in the livelihood zone are in the poor wealth group and will be affected particularly by rising food prices. This zone is not scheduled to receive humanitarian assistance over the next six months because it was not included in the earlier MVAC food insecurity assessment. After December, a food security Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period (January-March).

    Rift Valley (RFT) Livelihood zone

    Under the RFT zone, the EPAs of major food security concern are Chipoka in Salima district, Mtakataka in Dedza district, Lisungwi in Neno district, and Kandeu and Manjawira in Ntcheu district. FEWS NET analysis suggests a poor household survival deficits of <5 percent. The livelihood baseline information for RFT shows that 39 percent of the population in the livelihood zone are poor. Humanitarian assistance in the form of in-kind food assistance started in Neno district in September, while assistance in Salima and Dedza districts is planned to begin in December. Between October and December, likely humanitarian assistance will mitigate these deficits, leaving households Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Current maize prices, currently at MWK61/kg, are expected to increase to MWK63/kg by the end of the outlook period. Because of the likelihood of continued assistance funding shortfalls and food pipeline breaks over the next few months, FEWS NET expects conditions to deteriorate. Throughout the remainder of the outlook period (January-March) the zone will be classified as Crisis: IPC Phase 3 .  


    Events that Might Change the Outlook

    Area

    Event

    Impact on food security outcomes

    All zones

    GoM response planning is fully funded or GoM provides 44,800 MT of maize for humanitarian assistance distribution.

    This would allow WFP to move adequate humanitarian aid in food insecure areas and avoid early discontinuation of the humanitarian assistance.

    TMT

    MVAC recommends an earlier start of humanitarian assistance in areas of concern in TMT

    Poor cash dependent households are able to access food through humanitarian assistance.

    All zones

    ADMARC maize supplies consistently reach markets in the southern region and prices remain at MWK60/kg, bringing all  prices down.

    Cheaper maize is available in the more commercial outlets in rural areas affected by food insecurity thereby allowing any household access to purchase maize.

    Figures Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Figure 1

    Seasonal Calendar for a Typical Year

    Source: FEWS NET

    Current food security outcomes, October 2012

    Figure 2

    Current food security outcomes, October 2012

    Source: FEWS NET

    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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