Crisis (IPC Phase 3) anticipated in the south through January driven by weather shocks

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in parts of southern Malawi (the area of highest concern) and localized areas of the central region from October 2026 through January 2027, a marked deterioration following widespread Minimal (IPC Phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through September. These outcomes will likely be driven by the early depletion of household food stocks following below-average 2026 harvests and reduced purchasing power. Above-average food prices, combined with atypically low agricultural labor opportunities, are expected to constrain poor households’ ability to access food through market purchases, leading to food consumption gaps. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected across the remaining southern districts and several central region districts over the same period, as households are likely to meet minimum food needs but cannot afford some non-food expenditures without engaging in negative coping strategies. 
• Below-average rainfall is likely in southern Malawi during the 2026/27 season, with October to January rains delayed and poorly distributed. Households’ purchasing power is expected to decline due to below-average agricultural labor income. These conditions are associated with the forecasted strengthening El Niño, which was present as of June and is likely to intensify into a very strong event. In contrast, central and northern Malawi are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall with planting starting in early November, supporting favorable cropping conditions.
• The main harvest has been completed across the country, with average yields reported at the national level, thanks to favorable rainfall conditions. However, the southern region of Malawi, including the Southern Lakeshore, Middle Shire, and Lower Shire Livelihood Zones, experienced below-average harvests due to dry spells and flooding during the main rainy season.
• FEWS NET estimates that 1.5-1.99 million people will require humanitarian food assistance during the October- January lean season. This represents a decline compared to the same period last year, reflecting improved national maize production and lower staple food prices. While plans for humanitarian assistance have not yet been finalized, past trends indicate that assistance is typically provided from November through at least January, coinciding with the peak of the lean season. 

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 26, 2026. 

Agriculture is central to Malawi’s economy, supporting the livelihoods of over 80 percent of the population and providing employment and income for most of the workforce. While small-scale and subsistence farming dominate the crop production sector, commercial cash crop farming makes a significant contribution. The main crops cultivated include maize (the staple food), as well as tobacco, tea, and sugarcane (the main cash crops). The northern and central regions are known for surplus production, helping to offset the deficits in the south, where small landholdings, poor soil fertility, recurrent weather shocks, and semi-arid conditions limit production.  

The rainy season (October-March) influences crop production activities, pasture availability, and availability of agricultural labor opportunities, leading up to and during the main maize harvest (typically April-August). The start of the main harvest coincides with the end of the typical lean season and the start of the consumption year, key timing given the importance of crop production and income sources for poor and rural households. In February (before the lean season ends), agricultural activities such as weeding typically provide increased employment opportunities. Agricultural activities on irrigated farms also typically enhance labor demand beyond the main harvest season (through November). Irrigated winter crop production supplements the main harvest, providing households with additional food, income sources, and stabilized prices due to increased food supply in local markets. Winter planting typically occurs between April and August in lowland areas that benefit from the residual moisture or access to irrigation facilities, with the winter harvest typically expected from September to November.

Tobacco plays a crucial role in Malawi’s economy, serving as a source of hard currency, strengthening the country's foreign exchange reserves, and supporting overall economic stability. Tobacco production is highly labor intensive, involving planting, tending, harvesting, curing, processing, and auctioning, and provides widespread employment opportunities and household income, particularly for the poor. The tobacco auction season, which begins in April/May and continues through August/September, attracts traders, buyers, and day laborers from across the country. However, the sector faces persistent challenges, including limited input supply and volatile market conditions, which can negatively disrupt the tobacco value chain.

Malawi's food security is highly susceptible to extreme weather events, which frequently disrupt agricultural production. Periodic droughts and floods have destroyed crops, leading to reductions in food availability and income-earning opportunities. Severe droughts linked to El Niño in 2015, 2016, and the 2023/24 season, along with flooding from Tropical Cyclones Ana and Gombe (2021/22), Freddy (2023), Chido (2024), and Jude (March 2025), caused major reductions in maize and other food crops production, particularly in the southern part of the country where the cyclones hit.  

High rates of poverty in rural areas and unemployment in towns and cities limit households' ability to buy enough food, earn income, and access agricultural inputs. The country’s broader economic instability often leads to sharp price increases, resulting in above-average costs for locally produced and imported food, essential non-food items, fertilizer, and fuel.

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Latest Malawi Food Security Outlook: February 2026 to September 2026 
• Latest Food Security Outlook Update for Malawi: April 2026 to September 2026 
• Latest Malawi Key Message Update: May 2026 
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology 
• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need 
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis 
• FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis 

The 2026 maize harvest for some parts of the Middle Shire, Lower Shire, and Southern Lakeshore livelihood zones is below the five-year average. Below-average rainfall and dry spells during the maize flowering stage (mid-January to mid-February) led to moisture stress and reduced yields in these areas (Figure 1). In addition, intense rainfall in mid-March triggered flash floods in several central and southern districts, causing localized crop damage and further lowering production in affected areas. The flooding was also accompanied by washaways, waterlogging, soil erosion, and siltation, which damaged cropland, and adversely affected crop performance in some localized areas.

Foreign exchange reserves remain below average, with foreign exchange availability still scarce amid high import demand and low export earnings. Businesses continue to face import challenges due to the limited availability of foreign currency at formal financial institutions. According to the World Bank, the current parallel market premium is around 140 percent above the official MWK/USD exchange rate. These foreign exchange shortages and high premiums are constraining the importation of essential commodities, including fuel, medicines, and key production inputs.

Annual headline inflation remains elevated at around 23 percent as of May 2026, driven primarily by persistently high non-food inflation. 

Income from crop sales is below average in some parts of the southern region, including the Middle Shire and Lower Shire livelihood zones, and central and southern lakeshore districts of Salima, Nkhota-kota, and Mangochi, driven by below-average crop production. 

Fuel prices remain significantly above average, largely driven by increases in international oil prices and high transportation costs. Although the Malawi Energy Regulatory Authority (MERA) implemented a 9.5 percent reduction in gasoline and a 5.7 percent drop in diesel in June 2026, this adjustment has provided only limited relief given the magnitude of earlier increases.

Maize grain prices are currently above the five-year average, although they have experienced typical seasonal declines following the main harvest. At Mitundu, the national reference market monitored by FEWS NET, prices remain approximately 40 percent higher than the five-year average, despite a 20 percent decline observed between April and May 2026.

Increased market reliance, particularly among very poor families, are above average in Neno, Mwanza, parts of Blantyre, Chikwawa, Nsanje, Phalombe, and certain areas of Mangochi, Mulanje, and Thyolo, following a period of below-average staple crop production. Consequently, there is an atypically high dependence on the market for cereals. According to data from the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) household survey, 20 to 40 percent of households in these regions are relying on markets for cereals and tubers immediately post-harvest (unseasonally early).

Non-agricultural labor income, especially from construction-related work, is below average, particularly in urban and southern areas, driven by a slowdown in construction activity. 

Tobacco prices have remained lower than both last year and the average for the past three years, according to the Tobacco Commission. Prices are approximately 15 percent lower than the same period last year, standing at around 2.07 USD/kilogram (kg), down from 2.45 USD/kg. These prices are approximately 20 percent below the five-year average.

Humanitarian food assistance

Currently, there is no humanitarian assistance program being implemented in the districts. The lean season humanitarian food assistance delivered by the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA), in partnership with WFP, concluded in March after distributions were completed in several southern and central districts.

Southern areas

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are prevailing in Mwanza, Neno, Chikwawa, Nsanje, and parts of Mangochi district. Poor households have minimally adequate food consumption from own‑produced 2026 harvests and are supplementing with market purchases. However, poor households face below-average purchasing power as income-earning opportunities remain below average during the post-harvest period, and below-average crop production resulted in reduced income from crop sales. As a result, most households have constrained purchasing power and are unable to afford necessary non‑food expenditures. Most households are meeting their basic food needs through consumption of staple foods, primarily consisting of maize and vegetables. 

Central and northern areas

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes continue in Salima and Nkhota-kota districts in the central region. Households are mostly relying on own-produced food stocks despite below-average maize production, supplemented by market purchases, minimally meeting their basic food, but not non-food needs, due to reduced purchasing power. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes continue in the remaining maize surplus- and tobacco‑producing districts of the central region and the northern region. Households in these areas are meeting their food and non-food needs, supported by access to own‑produced food stocks and typical to above‑average income from crop sales, agricultural labor, and self‑employment activities. Additionally, households’ purchasing power has improved due to increased income from sales of horticultural crops such as onions, tomatoes, green leafy and other vegetables.  

Urban areas

Urban areas are currently facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, with poor households able to meet minimum food needs but facing difficulties in covering essential non-food expenditures such as education, health, and housing. Persistently high costs of living — including elevated housing, transportation, and utility expenses and below-average incomes from both domestic and construction labor activities — continue to erode households’ purchasing power and constrain access to basic services. 

• Forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicate strengthening of El Niño conditions through at least January 2027. This is expected to result in a below-average start to the October 2026 rainy season, especially in southern areas. A strong event will likely lead to below-average rainfall and prolonged dry spells, particularly in structurally deficit-producing southern areas.
• Area planted for maize in southern regions is expected to be below average due to anticipated El Niño conditions, including delayed and below-average rainfall. An increased number of middle and better-off households are likely to reduce their farming activities. 
• Foreign exchange shortages are expected to persist through at least January 2027, driven by structurally low export earnings, high import demand, and limited foreign reserves. Parallel market exchange rate premiums are expected to remain elevated, exceeding 100 percent of the official rate. 
• Annual headline inflation is expected to remain elevated through January 2027. The Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) projects 22 percent headline inflation for 2026. Although month-to-month volatility may moderate between June and September, inflation will likely remain above the five-year average from October through January.
• Fuel shortages are anticipated between June 2026 and January 2027 due to foreign exchange constraints. With MERA’s reinstated Automatic Pricing Mechanism for fuel, domestic fuel prices will likely follow international price trends.
• Maize grain prices are expected to rise from June through September. However, they will remain about 15 percent below last year’s levels, supported by food stocks from the recent harvest. Despite this, prices will stay around 70 percent above the five-year average. Between October and January, as market reliance grows, prices will rise further, approaching last year’s levels and remaining about 65 percent above the five-year average (Figure 2).

• Access to improved agricultural inputs will likely remain constrained, especially for poorer households, due to substantially above-average prices for improved seeds and fertilizer amid reduced purchasing power. As a result, most farmers are expected to rely on lower-quality recycled seed and open-pollinated varieties and to apply fertilizer at rates below recommended levels.
• Agricultural and non-agricultural labor opportunities will likely remain below average in parts of the south due to an anticipated reduction in cultivated areas. 
• Below-average livestock body conditions are expected from October through January due to limited feed and water availability, especially in the southern region, where the 2026/27 rainfall season is likely to be delayed and below average.
• Income from tobacco sales in 2026 is anticipated to enhance the purchasing power of households in tobacco-producing regions. However, below-average tobacco prices and the poor quality of tobacco leaves compared to previous years at the auction floors are expected to decrease overall earnings.

Humanitarian food assistance

• Government and other humanitarian actors typically implement a lean season humanitarian assistance program from November through at least January, based on identified needs and the estimated period of intervention. Based on historical trends, some deficit-producing districts (up to 20 percent of the population) in the south are expected to receive humanitarian assistance between December and January. 

Southern areas

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist in Mwanza, Neno, Chikwawa, Nsanje, and parts of Mangochi district from June through September. During this period, poor households in these areas are expected to continue accessing food through their own food stocks, enabling them to meet their minimum food consumption needs. However, below-average incomes and reduced purchasing power will constrain households' access to essential non-food needs. 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in Mwanza, Neno, Chikwawa, Nsanje, Balaka, Phalombe, Chiradzulu and parts of Mangochi districts from October 2026 through January 2027, driven by constrained household access to food and depletion of food stocks. As the lean season starts, below-average incomes from agricultural labor — due to El Niño–related reductions in cropping and associated employment opportunities — alongside weakened purchasing power are expected to limit households’ ability to meet food needs through market purchases. As a result, food consumption gaps are expected to emerge among very poor households. During this period, households will increasingly rely on consumption-based coping strategies, such as reducing meal frequency and portion sizes and skipping meals, alongside livelihood coping strategies, including selling productive assets (e.g., farm tools, goats/chicken) to access food. FEWS NET’s June 2026 Household Economy Analysis (HEA) confirmed that very poor households in these districts are expected to face survival deficits (less than 20 percent) from October 2026 through January 2027. Deterioration in acute malnutrition is expected; however, global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates are expected to remain within Acceptable levels.  

Central and northern areas

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist in Salima and Nkhota-kota districts, particularly in the southern and northern lakeshore livelihood zones, from June through September. During this period, very poor households are anticipated to maintain minimally adequate food consumption but will remain unable to meet essential non-food expenditures due to constrained purchasing power. Households are expected to continue relying on their own-produced food stocks despite below-average maize production and supplement them with market purchases. Access to non-food needs is expected to remain constrained due to slow livelihood recovery following consecutive years of flooding and dry spells. 

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in localized areas of Salima and Nkhota-kota districts from October 2026 through January 2027. As the lean season starts, households are expected to face increasing pressure due to the anticipated early depletion of food stocks and increased reliance on market purchases. This shift to market dependence is expected to coincide with seasonally rising, above-average food prices and below-average income-earning opportunities — particularly from agricultural labor — thereby further constraining households’ purchasing power. As a result, food access is expected to deteriorate, leading to food consumption gaps among very poor households. Very poor households will engage in both consumption-based coping strategies, such as reducing meal frequency and portion sizes, and livelihood-based coping strategies, such as selling productive assets. FEWS NET’s June 2026 Household Economy Analysis (HEA) projects that very poor households across these districts will face survival deficits of less than 20 percent from October 2026 to January 2027. Seasonal deterioration in acute malnutrition is expected from October through January, consistent with lean season trends. However, GAM rates are expected to remain within an Acceptable range. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in Kasungu and Ntchisi districts from October through January 2027, as households are anticipated to have minimally adequate food consumption but be unable to afford some essential non-food expenses due to reduced purchasing power driven by below-average incomes from wage labor and self-employment. 

Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected until January 2027 in the remaining central and northern regions, including maize surplus and tobacco-producing districts. Households are expected to meet their essential food and non-food needs through their own food stocks and average purchasing power from livelihood activities such as agricultural labor, petty trade, and self-employment. Most households will be able to meet both their food and non-food requirements.

Urban areas

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through January 2027, as poor households are anticipated to continue meeting their minimum food consumption needs but face increasing difficulty covering essential non-food expenditures. Elevated costs of living — including high prices for housing, transportation, and utilities — are expected to further erode household purchasing power and constrain access to non-food essentials. At the same time, reduced demand for casual labor is likely to intensify competition for limited income-earning opportunities among the urban poor. As a result, many households are expected to struggle to secure consistent employment and maintain sufficient income to meet their essential non-food needs. However, urban areas are likely to provide relatively better income-earning opportunities compared to rural areas, which helps improve the purchasing power of urban residents. 

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. 

FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

• How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario. 
• How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. 

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a crediblealternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National 

Rainfall deficits associated with El Niño are more severe and prolonged than anticipated

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: El Niño conditions delay the onset of the rainy season, followed by prolonged dry spells and below-average cumulative rainfall that are more severe than anticipated. Crop establishment and development would be significantly affected across southern and central Malawi. Reduced agricultural labor demands would further weaken the purchasing power of poor households. Expectations of lower national maize production would likely push maize prices above projected levels. Earlier depletion of food stocks and increased market dependence would widen food consumption gaps and accelerate the use of negative coping strategies. As a result, a greater proportion of poor households would likely experience IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) outcomes than projected under the most likely scenario.

More severe-than-anticipated El Niño-induced rainfall deficits and extended dry spells

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Associated with El Niño, rainfall deficits more severe than currently anticipated and prolonged dry spells during critical crop growth stages would lead to widespread moisture stress, crop failure, and significantly below-average harvests across southern Malawi. Agricultural labor opportunities would decline substantially, reducing income among poor households already facing limited livelihood options. Lower local food availability, combined with atypically high staple food prices, would constrain food access during the lean season. Poor households would increasingly rely on unsustainable coping strategies, including distress sales of livestock, increased charcoal production, and reductions in meal quantity and quality. Consequently, food insecurity outcomes would deteriorate beyond current projections, with additional households facing IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and the worst-affected households at risk of IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) outcomes. 

Tropical cyclone or localized flooding following prolonged dry conditions

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Although El Niño is expected to increase the likelihood of below-average rainfall, isolated tropical cyclones or episodes of intense rainfall remain possible and could cause localized flooding, particularly in flood-prone districts of southern Malawi. Flooding would damage crops, displace households, destroy productive assets, and disrupt market access and transportation infrastructure. These impacts would compound existing production losses from rainfall deficits, reducing household food availability and income and constraining market access. Food consumption gaps would widen among affected households, increasing the number experiencing IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or worse outcomes.

To inform the June 2026 to January 2027 Malawi Food Security Outlook (FSO), FEWS NET conducted a Household Economy Analysis (HEA) Outcome Analysis (OA) to assess how access to food and cash income will be affected by ongoing and anticipated shocks. HEA OA is one of six direct food consumption outcome indicators in the IPC Acute Food Insecurity reference table and is used in FEWS NET’s convergence-of-evidence approach. It is the only outcome indicator that provides evidence of future outcomes. FEWS NET considers two main factors to assess the reliability of HEA OA results as direct evidence of food consumption: 

• Likely accuracy of the problem specifications, which is largely dependent on the availability of credible information to estimate or make inferences about key sources of food and income. 
• Relevance of the baseline to current livelihoods, which is often – but not always – tied to the age of the baseline. 

FEWS NET assessed that the information available to develop problem specifications for the Lower Shire Livelihood zone in Chikwawa district, Malawi, was substantial. The reference year for the baseline of the Lower Shire livelihood zone in Chikwawa district is April 2023 - March 2024, and FEWS NET assesses the baseline's current relevance as high. Based on these factors, FEWS NET has high confidence that the results of the HEA OA accurately present the size of food consumption deficits experienced by the population group of analysis.

Problem specifications: The table below provides a broad overview of the quantity and price problem specifications (PS) behind the HEA OA. A PS translates a shock into household-level food security consequences through quantitative assumptions about the quantities and prices of key food and cash income sources during the projection period relative to levels documented in the reference year. While the OA assigns a point estimate to each key food and cash income source (e.g., maize, wheat, rice), the annex summarizes these points estimates into broader categories (e.g., main staple grains) and provides approximate ranges for a high-level summary. 

Results: As shown in the PS table, two sets of OA results are presented. Annual results are presented in graphs with three bars. The first (left) bar shows the relative importance of different food and cash income sources in the reference year (a typical year). The second (middle) bar shows the sources of food and cash income available in the year of analysis, after incorporating the impact of shocks and household coping capacity. This is compared against two thresholds shown in the third bar: the Survival Threshold and the Livelihoods Protection Threshold. Seasonal results are presented in a graph with multiple bars showing month-by-month results for the consumption year. This is where FEWS NET derives results that inform projections of acute food insecurity outcomes over the eight-month FSO period. The Survival Threshold represents the costs of covering the minimum food needs (2,100 kilocalories per person per day) and other essential survival items (e.g., soap, salt, kerosene for cooking, water for consumption). The Livelihoods Protection Threshold represents the cost of the Survival Threshold plus the costs of maintaining livelihoods (e.g., commodities and services such as productive inputs, health, and education). 

Population group: OA is typically conducted across three to four wealth groups which are the population group of analysis, i.e., Very Poor (VP), Poor (P), Middle (M) and Better Off (BO) households.

Description of scenario(s): 

FEWS NET conducted a countrywide OA for all 18 livelihood zones of Malawi. For illustrative purposes, FEWS NET selected the results of the MW05, Lower Shire Livelihood Zone in Chikwawa district, to be presented in this annex. As an input to the FSO analysis, FEWS NET conducted the OA based on the most likely scenario, and the PS and results for this scenario are summarized below.

Problem specifications:

Results: