April harvest will likely mitigate food consumption gaps through at least September

• Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected through March 2026 in areas of the south and center as food assistance mitigates food consumption gaps. In the rest of the south and central Karonga, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to persist, driven by below-average income-earning opportunities, decreasing household purchasing power. In the remaining central and northern areas, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes persist, supported by own-produced food stocks and typical access to income from agricultural labor, and other livelihood activities.
• Seasonal improvements in food access are anticipated countrywide starting in April, as the 2026 maize harvest becomes available supporting access to own produced foods and income increases associated with crop sales and agricultural labor. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes will likely persist in southern areas through September amid limited recovery from consecutive years of multiple shocks, while the remainder of the country will transition to Minimal (IPC Phase 1).
• Malawi received average rainfall across most of the country, likely supporting an average April/May main harvest. However, localized dry spells in the south—particularly along the Southern Lakeshore and in the Lower Shire Livelihood Zones—have led to wilting of some crops. This area received 75-95 percent of average rainfall between October 1, 2025, and February 28, 2026. Initial reports from district agriculture offices indicate that about 15–20 percent of planted maize has been affected.

• FEWS NET estimates that 2.0-2.49 million people will likely require humanitarian food assistance during the January-March 2026 peak lean season. Overall, food assistance needs are expected to be lower than last year, driven by improved food and income access. Food assistance needs are expected to decline beginning in April as the green and main season harvest becomes available. Households are expected to access food from the harvest and sell crops for income, diminishing food consumption deficits.

  The analysis in this report is based on information available as of February 27, 2026.

Agriculture is central to Malawi’s economy, supporting the livelihoods of over 80 percent of the population and providing employment and income for most of the workforce. While small-scale and subsistence farming dominate the crop production sector, commercial cash crop farming makes a significant contribution. The main crops cultivated include maize (the staple food), as well as tobacco, tea, and sugarcane (the main cash crops). The northern and central regions are known for surplus production, helping to offset the deficits in the south, where small landholdings, poor soil fertility, recurrent climatic shocks, and semi-arid conditions limit production.  

The rainy season (October-March) influences crop production activities, pasture availability, and subsequently the availability of agricultural labor opportunities, leading up to and during the main maize harvest (typically April-August). The start of the main harvest coincides with the end of the typical lean season and the start of the consumption year, key timing given the importance of crop production and income sources for poor and rural households. In February (before the lean season ends), agricultural activities such as weeding typically provide increased employment opportunities. Agricultural activities on irrigated farms also typically enhance labor demand beyond the main harvest season (through November). Irrigated winter crop production supplements the main harvest, providing households with additional food, income sources, and stabilized prices due to increased food supply in local markets. Winter planting typically occurs between April and August in lowland areas that benefit from the residual moisture or access to irrigation facilities, with the winter harvest typically expected from September to November.

Tobacco plays a crucial role in Malawi’s economy, serving as a source of hard currency, strengthening the country's foreign exchange reserves, and supporting overall economic stability. Tobacco production is highly labor-intensive, involving planting, tending, harvesting, curing, processing, and auctioning, and provides widespread employment opportunities and household income, particularly for the poor. The tobacco auction season, which begins in April/May and continues through August/September, attracts traders, buyers, and day laborers from across the country. However, the sector faces persistent challenges, including limited input supply and volatile market conditions, which can negatively disrupt the tobacco value chain.

Malawi's food security is highly susceptible to extreme weather events, which frequently disrupt agricultural production. Periodic droughts and floods have destroyed crops, leading to reductions in food availability and income-earning opportunities. Severe droughts linked to El Niño in 2015, 2016, and the 2023/24 season, along with flooding from Tropical Cyclones Ana and Gombe (2021/22), Freddy (2023), Chido (2024), and Jude (March 2025), caused major reductions in maize and other food crops production, particularly in the southern part of the country where the cyclones hit.  

High rates of poverty in rural areas and unemployment in towns limit households' capacities to purchase sufficient food, generate income, and access agricultural inputs. The country’s broader economic instability often leads to sharp price increases, resulting in above-average costs for locally produced and imported food, essential non-food items, fertilizer, and fuel.

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Latest Malawi Food Security Outlook: October 2025 to May 2026
• Latest Malawi Key Message Update: January 2026
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology
• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need  
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis
• FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis

Rainfall: Cumulative rainfall from October 2025 to February 20, 2026, has been generally favorable across Malawi, with modest regional variations. Most of the northern and central areas have received between 105 and 150 percent of normal cumulative rainfall, while the southern areas have received 105 to 115 percent, with some areas, especially in the Lower and Middle Shire Valley, receiving between 70 and 95 percent of average rainfall. Despite broadly adequate rainfall conditions, some areas along the Southern Lakeshore and the Middle and Lower Shire Valley livelihood zones experienced dry spells lasting more than three weeks (from January 11 to early February). 

Crop development: Maize development is generally progressing well across the country, supported by favorable rainfall. Despite broadly adequate rainfall conditions dry spells in some livelihood zones has resulted in moisture stress and localized permanent wilting of some crops. Overall, crop conditions remain favorable, and continued rainfall at current levels will be important to support grain filling and ensure good yield potential.

Most crops are presently in the reproductive stage. Based on field assessments and key information, in the southern half of the country, early‑planted maize is at maturity, while most of the remaining fields are currently at the tasseling to cobbing stages. In contrast, maize in the northern half is in the tasseling or late vegetative stages, reflecting relatively later planting dates and rainfall distribution patterns. 

Macroeconomic conditions: The economy remains under significant strain due to persistent structural challenges and continued fiscal deficits. The parallel exchange rate remains stable, trading at roughly 4,100 MWK/USD in early 2026, while the official rate remains fixed at 1,750 MWK/USD. According to the Reserve Bank of Malawi, the country’s reserve stands at 2.1 months, below the required minimum of 3 months. Ongoing foreign exchange shortages and below-average reserve levels continue to limit import capacity.

According to the National Statistical Office (NSO) annual headline inflation was stable at 25 percent in January 2026, the lowest since April 2022. The stability was mainly driven by a reduction in food inflation, which dropped from 27 percent to 22 percent over the same period. Meanwhile, non-food inflation rose to 30 percent in January from 25 percent reported in December 2025, driven by increases in fuel prices. 

Maize supply: National maize market supply is at typical levels, supported by continued releases of maize stocks by traders and farmers who previously withheld grain in anticipation of higher lean season prices. Additionally, the high likelihood of a favorable 2026 harvest is encouraging further offloading of stocks to create storage space. Further supplies from informal cross-border imports — primarily from Zambia, Mozambique, and Tanzania — are further improving market supply. 

Maize prices: Typically, maize prices rise between December and January; however, between December 2025 and January 2026, prices decreased from a national average of 1,172.79 to 1,070 MWK/kilogram (kg) across the 27 markets monitored by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Despite the reduction, maize grain prices are still above the five-year average due to higher production and transportation costs. In Mitundu, the national reference market, January prices were 65 percent above the five-year average but 20 percent lower than last year's prices. 

Maize stock: Malawi’s Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC) is currently operating with below‑average maize stocks, holding only about 10,000 metric tons (MT) across its depots countrywide. Despite limited stocks, ADMARC’s official selling price of 1,300 MWK/kg (equivalent to 65,000 MWK/50 kg bag) is well above prevailing local market prices, which range from 42,000-55,000 MWK/50 kg bag. This price misalignment has effectively stalled ADMARC market activity, limiting its ability to influence price stabilization or market supply.

Tobacco production: Tobacco harvesting and curing are underway. In the south, where the season begins earlier, farmers are curing and initial grading, though tobacco production there is relatively limited. The Central Region is steadily advancing through harvest and beginning mid‑season curing. In the North, cooler conditions and later planting mean most farmers are only starting leaf cutting and initiating curing. These activities are progressing in preparation for the marketing season, which normally opens in April.

Agricultural labor: Seasonal agricultural labor opportunities are generally average across most of the country, supported by the ongoing favorable agricultural season. However, labor demand is beginning to seasonally decline in area of the south and center as weeding and fertilizer application activities are completed. In the central and northern tobacco-producing areas, tobacco harvesting and drying support average labor opportunities. In southern districts, overall labor availability remains below average due to reduced hiring capacity among better‑off households.

Humanitarian food assistance

Humanitarian food assistance is ongoing across most southern districts and parts of central Malawi, benefiting 25-45 percent of the population of the targeted districts. Beneficiary households are receiving either a 50 kg bag of maize or 90,000 MWK monthly, covering 25-50 percent of their food needs.

Southern Malawi

Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes persist in Neno, Mwanza, Phalombe, Mulanje, Thyolo, Chikwawa, Nsanje, and Blantyre as food assistance mitigate food consumption deficits. Below-average labor income and above-average food prices continue to limit purchasing power and constrain market food access, resulting in moderate food consumption deficits. Households are increasing migration to Mozambique, charcoal production, and firewood sales. FEWS NET’s January 2026 Household Economy Analysis (HEA) confirmed that very poor households in these districts face survival deficits (less than 20 percent). The ongoing humanitarian food assistance — is mitigating these gaps, leading to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes.

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in other parts of the southern districts, as households meet minimum food, but not all non-food needs, due to reduced purchasing power following three consecutive years of shocks. Community Management of Acute Malnutrition (CMAM) data show increased admissions since December 2025, consistent with typical lean season‑season patterns. The nutrition indicators in February is following the historical trends, most southern areas record GAM levels within Acceptable (<5 percent), while the Lower Shire — particularly Chikwawa and Nsanje — often reaches Alert levels (5–9.9 percent) in years of acute food insecurity or flooding.

Central Malawi

Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes persist in localized areas of Salima where ongoing humanitarian assistance is mitigating food consumption gaps. Above average food prices and declining purchasing power are limiting market access for very poor households, contributing to continued food consumption deficits. FEWS NET’s January 2026 HEA outcome analysis confirmed that very poor households face small survival deficits (less than 20 percent). Food aid distribution — is mitigating these consumption gaps, resulting in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes. In Lilongwe, Dowa and Nkhota-kota, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing as households are minimally able to meet their food needs but are unable to meet essential nonfood expenses due to reduced purchasing power. In the rest of central Malawi, households are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes supported by own-produced food stocks, typical agricultural labor (including tobacco harvesting and curing) opportunities, petty trade, and average income from self-employment. CMAM data shows seasonal increases in admissions for acute malnutrition between December 2025 and January 2026. A seasonal, slight deterioration in acute malnutrition is ongoing during the lean season, driven by reduced food access and peak rainfall-related deterioration in water, sanitation, and health (WASH) conditions. 

Northern Malawi

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are present in the Central Karonga livelihood zone, primarily driven by reduced purchasing power among poor households. Although localized maize and rice losses occurred due to midseason dry spells during the 2024/25 production year, most households are still able to meet their minimum food needs. However, they are doing so by reducing expenditure on essential nonfood items, including health care and education. Very poor households are also increasingly engaging in additional coping strategies, such as expanding firewood collection and charcoal sales, and increasing reliance on petty trade. As in central Malawi, a slight seasonal deterioration in acute malnutrition is ongoing, but remaining within Acceptable levels (GAM <5 percent). The increase is linked to reduced food access and a higher incidence of waterborne diseases. 

Key assumptions about atypical food security conditions underpinning the most likely scenario through September 2026 

• Between February and April, much of the country will likely receive average rainfall. Above‑average totals are most likely in the Lower Shire Valley, other southern areas, and the central-to-northern lakeshore, supporting crop development during the critical mid‑ to late‑season stages. In southern Malawi and lakeshore areas, above‑average rainfall combined with an anticipated increase in tropical cyclones and tropical storms is expected to heighten the risk of flooding.
• National maize supplies are expected to be average from February to March, then increase to above-average levels from April through September. This will be supported by the additional local procurement by the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA) and ADMARC.
• Macroeconomic conditions are expected to remain strained through September. While inflation is likely to ease modestly following reductions in food prices, overall annual headline inflation is expected to remain elevated, driven by structural and macroeconomic challenges, including fiscal and external imbalances. Parallel market exchange rate premiums are expected to persist. Continued foreign exchange shortages and below-average reserves will further constrain import capacity.
• Maize grain prices are expected to remain atypically stable between February and March due to increased market supply from trader and farmer stock releases; however, FEWS NET projects that prices will remain high — around 35 percent above the five‑year average — though roughly 40 percent lower than last year. Prices are likely to begin declining in March/April, with prices expected to remain about 60 percent above the five‑year average but around 20 percent lower than the same time last year. From June to September, prices are expected to fall below last year’s levels by about 30 percent.
• Agricultural and non-agricultural labor opportunities are expected to remain average across the country, but slightly below average in southern areas due to reduced hiring power by better-off households following below-average incomes from 2025 crop sales and economic challenges. Wage rates are expected to rise in line with broader price increases but will not offset overall inflation, limiting gains in real income.
• Labor migration, particularly to Mozambique, is expected to be above-average between February and March, the peak of the lean season, as more households seek additional income‑earning opportunities. Migration will likely rise above typical seasonal levels in districts that traditionally rely on cross‑border labor.
• Tobacco production in 2026 is expected to be above the five-year average, supported by a forecast of favorable rainfall that will facilitate good crop establishment and leaf development. Additionally, producer incentives are likely to remain strong following the 2025 market season’s above five-year average prices, despite slight price declines compared to 2024. Higher production and continued favorable prices will likely strengthen foreign exchange earnings and support overall GDP growth.

Humanitarian food assistance

Humanitarian food assistance is expected to reach around 4 million people through March 2026, equivalent to roughly 20 percent of the national population, providing a 50-kilogram bag of maize or its cash equivalent of 90,000 MWK covering approximately 25–50 percent of a beneficiary household’s monthly kilocalorie needs. Covering 25 to 50 percent of beneficiary households' kilocalorie needs. However, delayed maize imports will likely constrain countrywide distribution, with priority given to the southern areas where needs are highest.

Southern Malawi

Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected through March 2026 in Mwanza, Neno, Blantyre, Phalombe, Mulanje, Thyolo, Chikwawa, and Nsanje districts, supported by the anticipated humanitarian food assistance, which continues to mitigate food consumption deficits. Very poor households are expected to face below-average purchasing power, resulting in persistent food consumption gaps. Seasonal improvements in food access are anticipated from April to May as households start to consume food from own production; earn income from crop sales and harvesting labor; and as food prices decline following seasonal trends. However, recovery from recent multiple shocks will be gradual; while poor households are expected to minimally meet their food needs, most will be unable to afford essential non-food expenditures. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through September 2026. Acute malnutrition is expected to seasonally worsen between February and March due to limited food access during the lean season and increased waterborne disease incidence during peak rainfall. 

Central Malawi

Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected through March 2026 in Salima as humanitarian food assistance continues to close food consumption deficits. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in Lilongwe, Dowa, and Nkhota-kota driven by below-average purchasing power, as households are expected to minimally meet their food consumption needs but are unable to meet other essential non-food expenditures. Starting in April, these districts are expected to transition to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) as households begin consuming own‑produced food from the 2025/26 harvest. These outcomes are expected to persist through September. Poor households will most likely start earning income from crop sales, including tobacco sales at the auctions, which are expected to open in April/May. In the remaining maize-surplus and tobacco‑producing districts, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist through September, supported by consumption of own-harvested crops, above‑average income from crop sales, agricultural labor — including tobacco harvesting, curing, and handling — and other self‑employment activities. 

Northern Malawi

Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in central Karonga through March 2026, driven by below‑average income and purchasing power. Households are expected to meet their minimum food, but not non-food needs, due to reduced purchasing power. From April to September, outcomes will likely improve to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) as households consume own-produced food from the main harvest and earn an average income from labor, self‑employment, and petty trades.

In other parts of northern Malawi, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected through September 2026 as households meet food and non‑food needs from their own production, average income from crop sales, average wage labor, and self‑employment activities, supporting typical purchasing power. Households are therefore able to meet both food and non-food needs. A seasonal, slight deterioration in acute malnutrition is expected in February–March due to poor WASH conditions during peak rainfall.

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is a methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. 

FEWS NET’s scenario development process applies the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assess acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity depends not only on hazards (such as drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to these hazards (e.g., the level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both the household’s ability to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET bases this analysis on a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

• How does FEWS NET analyze current acute food insecurity outcomes? FEWS NET assesses the extent to which households can meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of current food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change. FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, focusing on whether these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity. FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes, and the analysis is IPC-compatible. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET develop key assumptions underpinning the most likely scenario? A key step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is the development of evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security. These include hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will impact the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions about factors expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions form the foundation of the “most likely” scenario.
• How does FEWS NET analyze projected acute food insecurity outcomes? Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET projects acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs over time. FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance.
• How does FEWS NET analyze humanitarian food assistance? Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that such information can vary significantly across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance). In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. 

To inform the February 2026 to September 2026 Malawi Food Security Outlook (FSO), FEWS NET conducted a Household Economy Analysis (HEA) Outcome Analysis (OA), assessing how access to food and cash income will be affected by ongoing and anticipated shocks. HEA OA is one of six direct food consumption outcome indicators on the IPC Acute Food Insecurity reference table and is used in FEWS NET’s convergence of evidence approach. It is the only outcome indicator that provides evidence of future outcomes. FEWS NET considers two main factors to assess the reliability of HEA OA results as direct evidence of food consumption: 

• Likely accuracy of the problem specifications, which is largely dependent on the availability of credible information to estimate or make inferences about key sources of food and income.
• Relevance of the baseline to current livelihoods, which is often – but not always – tied to the age of the baseline.

FEWS NET assesses that the information available for developing problem specifications for Middle Shire Livelihood Zone in Neno district of, Malawi was substantial. The reference year for the baseline of Middle Shire Livelihood Zone in Neno district is April 2023 - March 2024, and FEWS NET assesses the current relevance of the baseline is high. Based on these factors, FEWS NET has high confidence that the results of the HEA OA accurately present the size of food consumption deficits experienced by the population group of analysis.

Problem specifications: The table below provides a broad overview of the quantity and price problem specifications (PS) behind the HEA OA. A PS translates a shock into food security consequences at the household level through a quantitative assumption on the quantity and price of key food and cash income sources during the projection period relative to levels documented in the reference year. While the OA assigns a point estimate to each key food and cash income source (e.g., maize, wheat, rice), the annex summarizes these point estimates into broader categories (e.g., main staple grains) and approximate ranges for the purpose of a high-level summary.   

Results: Following the PS table, there are two sets of OA results presented. Annual results are presented in graphs with three bars. The first (left) bar shows the relative importance of different food and cash income sources in the reference year (a typical year). The second (middle) bar shows the sources of food and cash income available in the year of analysis, after incorporating the impact of shocks and household coping capacity. This is compared against two thresholds shown in the third bar: the Survival Threshold and the Livelihoods Protection Threshold. Seasonal results are presented in a graph with multiple bars showing month by month results for the consumption year. This is where FEWS NET derives results that inform the projections of acute food insecurity outcomes over the eight-month period of the FSO. The Survival Threshold represents the costs of covering minimum food needs (2,100 kilocalories per person per day) and other essential survival items (e.g., soap, salt, kerosene for cooking, water for consumption, etc.). The Livelihoods Protection Threshold represents the cost of the Survival Threshold plus the costs of maintaining livelihoods (e.g., commodities and services such as productive inputs, health, and education).

Population group: OA is typically conducted across three to four wealth groups which are the population group of analysis, i.e., Very Poor (VP), Poor (P), Middle (M) and Better Off (BO) households.

Description of scenario(s): 

FEWS NET conducted a countrywide OA for all 18 livelihood zones of Malawi. For illustrative purposes, FEWS NET selected the results of the MW06, Middle Shire Livelihood Zone in Neno district, to be presented in this annex. As an input to the FSO analysis, FEWS NET conducted the OA based on the most likely scenario, and the PS and results for this scenario are summarized below.

Problem specifications:

Results: