Rainfall deficits likely to reduce crop production and maintain food insecurity

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes supported by humanitarian food assistance will persist in southern Malawi through March 2024, when harvests start, and the assistance program in targeted areas comes to an end. While harvests will increase food and income availability in the May to August period, some households in southern Malawi will likely remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to a likelihood of reduced production as well as low resilience caused by consecutive years of tropical cyclones/flooding since 2019.  Central and northern Malawi districts will experience localized Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes until April and May 2024, when harvests will start. Most of central and northern Malawi will then be in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) classification through September 2024.
• Between December 2023 and January 2024, maize grain prices in FEWS NET-monitored markets reached 230 percent above the five-year average, registering month-on-month price increases averaging 10 percent and year-on-year price percentage changes averaging 90 percent. At the national level, the absolute price averaged 905 MWK per kilogram, with the Nsanje market in southern Malawi recording the highest price of 1100 MWK per kilogram and the Mzuzu market in northern Malawi recording the lowest price of 720 MWK per kilogram. The average price of milled rice has increased by 6 percent compared to last month, 30 percent compared to the previous year, and 120 percent compared to the five-year average. Beans were trending 15 percent above last month, 50 percent above last year, and 110 percent above the five-year average. Maize prices are peaking in February before seasonally starting to decrease as the 2024 harvests boost household food stocks, increase market supply, and reduce market demand and dependence.
• The Malawi economy continues to face challenges, including very high inflation and shortages of foreign currency. However, the macroeconomy was showing some improvements as of January and February, driven by the commencement in November 2023 of budgetary support and other aid by donors. According to the National Statistics Office, Malawi continues to register increased inflation, remaining around 35 percent from December 2023 to January 2024. Malawi’s foreign currency levels stay below the recommended minimum of 3.9 months of import cover (Reserve Bank of Malawi). The Reserve Bank of Malawi reported that the country’s foreign currency reserves had increased to an equivalent of 2.7 months of import cover as of the end of December 2023, up from less than one-month of import cover in previous months. The value of the Malawi Kwacha was reported to have decreased by 50 percent against the USD in the last quarter of 2023.
• Malawi will likely record below-normal production in the 2023/24 agricultural season, mainly driven by poor rainfall performance due to the El Niño weather phenomenon, as forecasted by local, regional, and global models. According to the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) and FEWS NET’s seasonal forecast, January to March rainfall will likely be below average in southern and central Malawi, while rainfall in northern Malawi is expected to be average to above average. Extreme events such as mid-season dry spells and localized flooding are expected. Currently, Malawi is undergoing prolonged dry spells of over a month between January and February, which is causing severe moisture stress for crops and likely to cause significant loss of crop harvest. FEWS NET will closely follow-up and continually update the food insecurity analysis as the season evolves and the acute food insecurity outcome are likely to worsen.

Current Situation

Food insecurity: FEWS NET field assessments and observations across central and southern Malawi in mid-January 2024 showed that food insecurity has worsened since December, with expected Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes likely extending into the January to March period as more households face depleted food stocks from own-production and inadequate income sources amid very high prices for food and basic nonfood commodities. Most households, especially poor and very poor households, eat only once per day and consume wild foods and less preferred foods. Around the October to January period, households reported surviving on a diet of boiled mangoes, wild tubers, or wild vegetables for months, causing stomach diseases. Some households reported skipping meals some days of the week.

Rainfall performance: Despite some improvements in early January, the 2023/24 rainfall season performance remains erratic. From the end of January to mid-February, Malawi was in the middle of a prolonged dry spell of up to a month across all regions. According to the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCM), rainfall amounts from December to January were generally above normal in most southern areas, with normal to above-normal rainfall in much of central and northern Malawi. However, forecasts indicate that January to March rainfall will likely be below average in southern and central Malawi, driven by El Niño conditions. Meanwhile, rainfall in northern Malawi is expected to be average to above average. Extreme events such as mid-season dry spells and localized flooding are expected. This forecast is in line with the revised SARCOF forecast released in January 2024 and the FEWS NET seasonal forecast update released in January 2024. The overall below-normal forecast will likely reduce production for food and cash crops. In the previous strong El Niño season of 2015/16, production of the maize staple decreased by over 30 percent compared to the five-year average. 

Maize stocks: Below-normal maize stocks are held by government institutions responsible for managing the Strategic Grain Reserves and subsidized food sales. In December 2023, the National Food Reserve Agency (The Times-News) reported that only 14,000 metric tons of government reserves would remain after drawdowns for ADMARC sales and humanitarian food assistance, sufficient to feed 200,000 households for only one month. However, private traders are holding stocks for commercial sales at higher prices than the government-subsidized prices. These stocks are obtained from maize that traders hoarded and are now offloading on the markets to sell at higher prices during the lean period, as well as stocks that are being imported through informal cross-border trade, especially from Tanzania. The stocks are still deemed to be below average, with remote and smaller markets still facing maize shortages, especially in southern Malawi. FEWS NET assessments in January showed that most ADMARC markets, which sell maize at government-subsidized prices, had no maize in stock, and most households expected to depend on the expensive maize in local council markets. Purchases were being rationed, with a maximum purchase of 25 kilograms per person allowed. This results in most households failing to access enough food.

Maize imports: High levels of informal imports of maize, especially from Tanzania, are being observed in the current consumption season. Trends in FEWS NET monitoring data show a steady increase in informal maize imports from an average of 3,000 MT in December 2022 and January 2023 to around 12,500 MT in the same period of the current consumption season, which is a 330 percent increase. Further increases in imports will likely be recorded in the outlook period as the government and some development partners are reporting planned importation of maize in the face of very low local stocks (VOA News). While Malawi had earlier restricted the importation of maize grain from Tanzania due to an outbreak of necrosis disease that affects maize, the government has lifted the ban on condition that the maize is milled.

Income sources and terms of trade: Current terms of trade are unfavorable for poorer households in the face of reduced labor availability and above-average prices of food and basic non-food commodities throughout the consumption season. FEWS NET assessments conducted in January 2024 in southern Malawi districts found that a day’s labor wage is barely enough to buy 1 kilogram of maize. Yet, an average household requires 2.5 to 3 kgs of maize to meet their energy needs. In the previous consumption season, a day’s labor wages could suffice to buy between 3 to 5 kilograms of maize. The assessment revealed that wages paid for agricultural and non-agricultural labor had increased by about 20 to 30 percent above last year following the devaluation of the MWK. However, respondents reported steep reductions in labor availability ranging from 50 to 75 percent below normal. These findings were also supported by results of the Off-Own Farm Income (OOFI) phone survey implemented by FEWS NET in January 2024. About 40 percent of the respondents in the survey reported that labor availability had decreased, with another 40 percent reporting reductions in charcoal sales and yet another 55 percent of the respondents reporting reductions in incomes from petty trading. The main causes of these reductions were reported to be the previous poor agricultural season due to Tropical Cyclone Freddy, the devaluation of the MWK, and economic hardships across all wealth-groups, with even the middle and better-off households that typically offer labor to the poor or form a customer base for trade having lost their crops and assets during Tropical Cyclone Freddy. 

Macroeconomy: Malawi is currently recording negative macroeconomic conditions driven by low foreign currency availability, impacts of natural disasters, and a low agricultural production year. Despite some donor inflows from November 2023, the Reserve Bank of Malawi indicates that the country continues to register increased inflation, recorded at 35 percent in January 2024 compared to 33 percent in November 2023. Malawi’s foreign currency levels remain low, reported by the Reserve Bank of Malawi to be at 2.7 months of import cover, which is still lower than the recommended minimum of 3.9 months of cover. The MWK is reported to have lost value by 50 percent against the USD in the last quarter of 2023. Despite the intended realignment of the MWK to other foreign currencies by a 44 percent devaluation in November 2023, the market parity between the government official exchange rate and the parallel market remains at 14 percent, which is an improvement compared to the pre-devaluation period when the parity was around 60 percent. 

Input access: Current access to agricultural inputs is lower than normal in the current production season, especially for fertilizer, which is essential for crop production. Improvements in timeliness and access were recorded, with between 70 and 90 percent of the targeted farmers having accessed their inputs by early January 2024. However, despite these improvements, the number of beneficiaries has been drastically cut by the government due to financial constraints amid escalating global fertilizer prices. In the 2023/24 season, the number of subsidized input beneficiaries has decreased to 1,500,000 from 2,500,000 the previous year, representing a 40 percent decrease. Malawi was previously targeting all of the estimated 3.7 million subsistence farmers, which means only 40 percent of possible beneficiaries are currently being targeted. Another driving factor reducing access is the steep increase in prices of non-subsidized fertilizer, with the cost of a 50-kilogram bag of fertilizer rising by 300 percent (from around 20,000 MWK to over 80,000 MWK) over two years due to increasing global prices as well as depreciation and devaluation of the local currency.

Tobacco production and marketing: Tobacco is the number one foreign exchange earner, accounting for about 70 percent of Malawi’s annual earnings (Mwapata Institute). Current targets and projections for tobacco production in the 2023/24 production year are expected to be higher than last year’s. According to the first round of production estimates by the Tobacco Commission released in February 2024, Malawi will likely produce 146,000 metric tons of tobacco, an increase compared to about 120,000 metric tons last year and the five-year average of about 143,200. Over the past years, Malawi's tobacco production has been below average and below buyer demand due to weather hazards and the withdrawal of input support by tobacco companies. Tobacco incomes will likely be above average as tobacco will likely sell above 2 USD per kilogram, as compared to a five-year average of 1.79 USD per kilogram. Over the past three years, Malawi tobacco has been trading at an average of around 2.30 USD per kilogram (Tobacco Reporter), the highest price as compared to previous years. While the Tobacco Commission has led a drive to increase tobacco production by increasing the number of licensed tobacco farmers, the current erratic rainfall and prolonged dry spells are posing a threat to the set targets. 

Nutrition: Trend analysis for the past four years has seen some significant increases in severe acute malnutrition (SAM) cases during the December to March period, a typical lean season period. A 7 percent increase in SAM cases was observed in January 2023 compared to January 2022, which is more than double the rate of increase from January 2021 to January 2022 (3 percent). With SAM cases for December 2023 already higher than in December 2022, more SAM cases for January 2024 are likely to be observed. As labor opportunities have started to diminish, below-average incomes are compromising household purchasing power for poor and very poor households, affecting access to food and dietary diversity. Overall, at the national level, the global acute malnutrition (GAM) levels have increased but remain within the Acceptable Level (GAM < 5 percent), according to World Health Organization (WHO) standards. However, GAM rates in southern Malawi may have increased beyond the Acceptable range due to current acute food insecurity levels. In the last strong El Niño year of 2016, a Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) Nutrition SMART survey in May showed that GAM rates in southern Malawi livelihood zones ranged from 3 to 6.6 percent. 

Maize prices: Maize prices in FEWS NET-monitored markets have continued to increase significantly, with prices in December trending 10 percent higher than in November, nearly 90 percent above last year, and 230 percent above the five-year average. The national average nominal price in FEWS NET-monitored markets was 905 MWK per kilogram. In the field assessments conducted by FEWS NET in January in nine districts of southern Malawi, prices ranged from 750 MWK to 1,100 MWK, as compared to last year’s 350 MWK to 700 MWK per kilogram, which is about 75 percent higher. Alternative foods such as cassava, sweet potatoes, and rice were also very high, ranging from 30 to 65 percent above last year’s prices and 95 to 110 percent above the five-year average (Malawi Price Bulletin, January-2024).

Humanitarian food assistance: An increased number of households are facing food insecurity due to the loss of assets caused by Tropical Cyclone Freddy and the worsening macroeconomic conditions following successive devaluations of the MWK (25 percent in May 2022 and 44 percent in November 2023). Humanitarian assistance is underway in most affected southern Malawi districts, in addition to some benefiting in central and northern Malawi districts, identified as severely food insecure by the MVAC-led IPC analysis in July 2023. The current ration is a 50-kilogram bag of maize or its cash equivalent, which can provide around 65 percent of an average household’s monthly kilocalorie needs. However, the number of food-insecure households exceeds the number of targeted households benefiting from humanitarian assistance. According to the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DODMA), around 60 percent of the required funding for the assistance program was raised. The recent FEWS NET assessment in January found that some districts in southern Malawi that required assistance had not yet been reached, while in some areas, the assistance would cover fewer than the projected months of response. Hence, the level of humanitarian assistance is insufficient to improve food security outcomes, and these districts remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

Current Food Security Outcomes 

Results of a FEWS NET food security outcome analysis showed that households in most districts in southern Malawi are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from February to May 2024 due to the impacts of consecutive cyclones from 2019 to date, an ongoing El Niño below-normal rainfall season, and depletion of assets and resilience. Households in central and northern Malawi are expected to experience None (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, with parts of some districts such as Salima and Nkhotakota in central Malawi and Karonga in northern Malawi registering Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes. From February to March, several districts, such as Nsanje, Chikwawa, Mulanje, and Phalombe, will face Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in the presence of humanitarian assistance, reaching over 25 percent of the district population and providing about 65 percent of each household’s caloric needs. Districts such as Thyolo, Blantyre, Chiradzulu, Mwanza, Neno, parts of Zomba, Machinga, and Mangochi will likely continue facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes, as humanitarian assistance is not adequate to improve the food security outcomes. Districts such as Balaka in Southern Malawi, parts of Salima and Nkhotakota in central Malawi, and parts of Karonga in northern Malawi are expected to be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through March 2024. Food security outcomes will start to improve in the April/May period when the main harvests start.

Assumptions

The most likely scenario for February to September 2024 is based on the following national-level assumptions:

• The 2023/24 rainfall season: January 2023 to March 2024 rainy season will likely be below average in southern Malawi and parts of central Malawi due to strong El Niño conditions, while rainfall in parts of central and northern Malawi is forecasted to be average to above average. Extreme events such as mid-season dry spells and localized flooding are also expected in parts of central and southern Malawi (Figure 1).

• Limited access and high price of agricultural inputs: Farming households will register a significant decrease in access to agricultural inputs, especially fertilizers, which are crucial to crop production in the face of dwindling soil fertility. In the 2023/24 season, the number of subsidized input beneficiaries decreased to 1,500,000 from 2,500,000 in the previous year (The Nation Online News), representing a 40 percent decrease. In the 2020/21 agricultural season, all estimated 3.7 million subsistence farmers were targeted with subsidized agricultural inputs, meaning that only 40 percent of possible beneficiaries are being targeted this year. Another driving factor is the steep increase in prices of non-subsidized fertilizer, which have risen from around 20,000 MWK for a 50-kilogram bag of fertilizer two years ago to over 80,000 MWK in the current season due to increasing global prices as well as depreciation and devaluation of the local currency.
• Crop production: Malawi will likely register below-normal production for most food and cash crops during the 2023/24 production season, with maize production likely decreasing by over 30 percent compared to the five-year average. The reductions will be caused by below-normal and erratic rainfall, low access to agricultural inputs, especially fertilizers, and low resources invested in agricultural production for households that Tropical Cyclone Freddy impacted.
• Livestock: Livestock herd sizes will remain below average due to losses from flooding associated with Tropical Cyclone Freddy, in addition to increased livestock sales at below-average prices to obtain income for food purchases, especially in southern Malawi districts. Livestock herd sizes will remain average in central and northern Malawi. Pasture availability will be average from February to May. Still, it may deteriorate to below-average levels from June to September in the southern half of the country, following below-normal rainfall as per the national and global rainfall forecasts.
• Incomes from agricultural and non-agricultural labor will likely be below average throughout the outlook period in central and southern Malawi. The main drivers of this decrease will be the anticipated below-normal rainfall performance, which will decrease agricultural activities, as well as reduce income access due to decreased hiring by middle and better-off households whose assets were eroded during the Tropical Cyclone Freddy-induced floods. In northern Malawi, labor access will likely be normal, but the below-average projected production will reduce access to harvest-related employment opportunities in the May to September period.
• Maize imports and trade flows: Informal imports of the main staple will likely continue to increase in the outlook period. FEWS NET monitoring data is showing a steady increase in formal and informal maize imports, rising from around 2,000 MT in July 2023 to 14,460 in December 2023. Increases in imports will likely be recorded in the outlook period as the government and some development partners are reporting planned importation of maize in the face of very low local stocks.
• National maize stock: Malawi will continue having below-average stocks of maize staples at both household and national levels throughout the outlook period. FEWS NET assessments in May 2023, September 2023, and January 2024 have found that most households, especially in southern Malawi, have had below-normal or no household maize stocks, with most relying on market purchases. Furthermore, in December 2023, the National Food Reserve Agency, that manages the strategic grain reserves, reported that it will remain with only 14,000 metric tons of the maize staple after releasing some stocks for ADMARC sales and for humanitarian food assistance, meaning that Malawi will likely have close to zero carryover stocks during the harvest period (The Nation News Paper).
• Maize prices: Prices of the maize staple will trend atypically above the five-year average due to the below-average harvest, high demand from industrial processors, low supplies of subsidized food in ADMARC markets, and the effects of negative macroeconomic conditions. Price information from FEWS NET-monitored markets indicates that maize prices in January are already ranging from 750 MWK to 1,000 MWK per kilogram across the country, with technical projections showing that prices may peak at 1,200 MWK per kilogram, especially in southern Malawi, which has high maize deficits. Prices will seasonally start to decrease in March and April as some harvests start. However, reduced production due to low rainfall may maintain high prices even into the harvest period.
• Macroeconomy: Malawi will continue to register negative macroeconomic conditions throughout the outlook period. Despite some donor inflows from November 2023, Malawi continues to report increased inflation, recorded at 35 percent in January 2024, up from 34.5 percent in December 2023. Malawi’s foreign currency levels continue to dwindle, with official reserves reported to have decreased by 44.4 percent from January to November 2023.
• Humanitarian food assistance: Humanitarian assistance will continue to be largely inadequate relative to total needs due to insufficient funding, and it is likely to continue through March at near current levels. Current information indicates that the coverage of humanitarian assistance will remain lower than typical, and FEWS NET estimates around 30 percent of the population in the worst affected areas are likely to be targeted in districts of Muwanza, Mulanje, Phalombe, Nsanje, and Chikwawa. 
• Malnutrition: During the typical peak lean season period from February to March, challenges in food access are expected to continue, likely exacerbated by reduced labor opportunities, volatile macroeconomic conditions and commodity prices, and below-average incomes. Malnutrition levels will likely deteriorate, with some southern Malawi districts facing Alert levels (GAM 5–9.9%). However, a general decline in SAM cases has been observed from March to August in past years. Acute malnutrition is therefore expected to improve to Acceptable levels (GAM <5%) with improved access to food due to increased income from winter planting, main harvests, and tobacco sales and auctions. 

Most Likely Acute Food Security Outcomes

In the February to March period, households in southern Malawi districts where humanitarian assistance is not adequate or was not distributed will continue registering Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes. Southern Malawi districts receiving adequate humanitarian assistance (Nsanje, Chikwawa, Mulanje, and Phalombe) have transitioned from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) in the presence of humanitarian assistance. Food security outcomes in these districts will typically start improving in the April to May period when harvests start. Most districts in southern Malawi will likely face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes from June to September, with food and income access remaining constrained due to the lingering impacts of Tropical Cyclone Freddy as well as the anticipated reduced production due to below-normal rainfall. 

In the previous agricultural production season, most districts in central and northern Malawi had realized average to slightly above-average production in addition to accessing average to above-average income opportunities during this consumption season. For that reason, these areas will experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes from February to May. However, households in some central and northern Malawi, especially in Salima and Nkhotakota (central Malawi) and Karonga (northern Malawi), will likely face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes from February to May due to anticipated below-average harvests and poor purchasing powers.

From June to September, most households in central and northern Malawi are expected to register None (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes as they start accessing their own-produced food and crops for sale after the harvests. The livelihoods for households in central and northern Malawi will likely improve as they will also have access to incomes from tobacco sales and harvest-related labor. 

However, a prolonged dry spell that lasted over a month across several districts in Malawi is threatening production, with crops wilting and some almost reaching permanent wilting point. As of the end of February, many areas of the country had not received any rainfall, leading to permanent wilting of crops, which were at varying stages of development. This will likely lead to reductions in production levels of food and cash crops and drive up to a 30 percent reduction in the harvest, which may result in deterioration of the acute food insecurity outcomes and likely to face worse than anticipated results. FEWS NET will closely monitor the progress of the season and the food security situation and provide updates on its periodic reports. 

Table 1.  Possible events over the next eight months that could change the most-likely scenario

Current Situation

The Lower Shire Valley Livelihood Zone is the southernmost zone in the country, bordering Mozambique on its southern edge and the Shire Highlands on its north and eastern edges. Vegetation in the zone includes forest, grassland, and marshland. Soils are predominantly sandy clay and clay loam. The rainy season starts in the second half of November. It ends around late February or early March, with average rainfall totaling 600 mm to 700 mm annually (down from 900 mm to 1,200 mm in the 2005 baseline). Average temperatures range from 30^o to 40^o C.

The first effective rainfall started in November 2023, when some farmers planted. However, some dry spells led to the drying up of some crops, especially maize. Second rains came at the end of December, which led to 80 percent of farmers planting, while some planted in early January 2024 (Figure 3). During a FEWS NET assessment in week 2 of January, farmers were weeding their fields, applying fertilizers, and replanting some crops that had dried up. Farmers were also engaged in pest and disease management, especially for fall armyworms, which have damaged maize and millet crops. The pest has affected around 5,300 ha of maize out of the nearly 14,000 ha planted in all five Extension Planning Areas (EPAs). The level of infestation as a district is around 40 percent.

As of January 9, 2024, Nsanje district received a total of 910 mm in 14 rainy days, compared to 845 mm in 17 days at the same time last year. In early January 2024, around 29,000 out of nearly 110,000 farming households had no food of their own, representing about 30 percent of households. At the same time last year, about 17,000 out of 82,000, or 20 percent of households, were food insecure.

The districts reported improved access to subsidized agricultural inputs through the Affordable Inputs Program (AIP) but lamented that the number of beneficiaries is very low. In addition, many of those who are registered are failing to redeem their inputs because of low income levels. Given the prevailing food insecurity, farmers are prioritizing buying food instead. Humanitarian assistance is underway, aiming to reach 40 percent of the population in Nsanje, as indicated by an annual 2023 MVAC assessment. As of December 2023, informal cross-border trade in maize from Mozambique stood at 53 MT, representing around a 30 percent decline since November 2023 and a nearly 35 percent decrease compared to the same month last year.

As of January 2024, maize prices at Nsanje market averaged 1,150 MWK per kilogram, double the price at the same time last year. While ADMARC markets have been receiving some maize supplies for sale, the frequency and volumes have been below requirements and, thus, insufficient to meet demand. In some instances, the most remote areas are not supplied, and households are forced to walk long distances to access maize from council markets. This is leading to an increase in prices on the local market, as vendors are free to set the prices (Figure 4).

Agricultural labor availability, which contributes to the incomes of very poor and poor households, is below normal due to financial constraints faced by middle-income and wealthy households that typically hire laborers. Most poor and very poor households are depending instead on petty trade and sales of firewood and wild foods for income. Even though nominal prices for firewood are high, the quantities sold are very low due to high competition, given the increased number of households relying on this income source. Middle-income and wealthy households who have livestock like goats, poultry, and cattle sell their livestock to buy food. Other households, especially the poor and the very poor, are accessing employment opportunities from neighboring Mozambique, where they engage in agricultural labor and mining. 

The January 2024 FEWS NET food security assessment in the southern region revealed that most poor and very poor households consume one or two meals per day and sometimes skip meals. Many of these households are also consuming wild foods known as nyika, commonly eaten during severe food shortages, or just vegetables without any starch. According to a recent FEWS NET 12-month Household Economy Analysis (HEA), about 73,000 people in Nsanje district, mainly from very poor households, representing over 20 percent of the population, are currently experiencing food and income gaps expected to continue at least until the harvest in March or April 2024. The reduction in local agricultural labor opportunities and other income sources has contributed to reduced market access to food for the poor and very poor. 

Assumptions

In addition to the national-level assumptions, the following assumptions apply to this area of concern:

• Informal maize imports will likely continue to decrease as maize stocks in the source markets in Mozambique continue to dwindle seasonally and demand from food-insecure households increases within Mozambique. 
• Maize grain prices are expected to continue increasing until the harvest period (March–April), owing to low market supplies from ADMARC, reduced informal maize trade inflows from Mozambique, and increased transportation costs (Figure 2). 

Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

From February to May, most very poor households are expected to consume at least two meals per day; the quantities may be insufficient and likely to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. For the most part, households will consume maize, millet, or sorghum meal with pulses, small fish, and vegetables. As the second outlook period from June to September approaches, improved food access is expected from winter harvest. Still, poor households, less than 20 percent of the population, will likely start further reducing both the quantity and quality of their meals as they begin depleting own-food stocks that were already limited due to poor crop production resulting from the El Niño climate event.

In the June to September period, poor and very poor households will likely have depleted their food stocks from rainfed agriculture production and are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. During this period, most households will engage in winter/irrigation farming for food and income sources, but it is expected to be negatively impacted by low moisture availability because of below-average rainfall received in the current season. Poor and very poor households will likely be eating two meals a day with reduced portion size and limited variety, and they will be consuming their normal foods items (maize, millet, or sorghum meal with pulses, small fish, and vegetables).