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Tropical Storm Ana and drought impacts dampen national production prospects

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Malawi
  • February 2022
Tropical Storm Ana and drought impacts dampen national production prospects

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  • Key Messages
  • NATIONAL OVERVIEW
  • Key Messages
    • In Southern Malawi, damage from Tropical Storm Ana in January 2022 has further reduced the prospects for 2021/22 crop production. Flooding from Ana caused the loss of lives, damaged cropland and infrastructure, destroyed property, and resulted in livestock deaths. As a result of the storm’s damage and the rainfall deficits experienced throughout the country at the start of the season, FEWS NET expects national crop production will be 10 to 25 percent below average, with the largest deficits likely in Southern Malawi.

    • Although below-average production is expected, the overall food supply in Malawi, including for the maize staple, is expected to be average to slightly above average owing to consecutive above-average harvests in 2020 and 2021. Households, government, and private traders reportedly hold adequate surplus stocks to satisfy national needs, combined with an estimated 3 million metric tons from the upcoming harvest. However, many poor households – primarily in Southern and some parts of Central Malawi – will likely exhaust household stocks earlier than usual in 2022.

    • Overall, current and projected food security outcomes remain favorable in most rural areas of Malawi. Poor households’ access to crop production, labor income, self-employment, and livestock sales will support Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes. In the Lower Shire livelihood zone, losses to food and income following Tropical Storm Ana come on top of crop losses in 2021. Despite the ongoing humanitarian assistance, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely persist in Chikwawa and Nsanje districts throughout the outlook period due to additional cohorts of households that have lost food and income sources due to the impacts of Tropical Storm Ana. In Nsanje and Chikwawa, additional assistance needs are much higher than the initial humanitarian assistance planned in response to 2021 production gaps.


    NATIONAL OVERVIEW

    Current Situation

    Due to two consecutive above-average production seasons, Malawi registered favorable food security outcomes in the 2021/22 consumption year. However, the impacts of Tropical Storm Ana have since eroded livelihoods for around 1 million people, the majority of whom are in Southern Malawi. This has increased the population in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Only areas in the Lower Shire livelihood zone districts of Chikwawa and Nsanje recorded Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes and required humanitarian assistance from December 2021 to March 2022.

    Despite traditionally being a period of low national staple supplies, Malawi has adequate stocks of the maize staple at the national level due to consecutive surplus-producing years, 2020/21 and 2021/22. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Malawi produced 4.6 million metric tons (MMT) of the maize staple in the 2021/22 season, far above the 3.44 MMT national requirements. This, combined with surplus stocks from the previous season (about 200,000 MT), left Malawi with an estimated surplus of 1.3 to 1.4 MMT during the 2021-2022 consumption period, with government institutions (ADMARC and NFRA/SGR) reported having been holding about 229,000 MT out of this surplus for humanitarian food assistance and government-subsidized sales. The rest of the stocks, approximately 1.1 MMT, are held by individual households and private traders. As a result, overall maize stocks are sufficient for national needs until the upcoming harvests from April to June 2022.

    From October through December 2021, most of Malawi experienced one of the driest rainfall periods on record. Data from the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (DCCMS) at the end of December showed that northern Malawi received about 34 percent of average rainfall, Central Malawi received only 28 percent of normal rainfall, and Southern Malawi received 42 percent of average rainfall. By mid-January 2022, most of Malawi started receiving good spatial and temporal rainfall distribution. By the end of February, cumulative rainfall in Malawi had increased substantially and primarily made up for the unprecedented early-season deficits. By the end of February, the rainfall data from the DCCMS and the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) indicated cumulative rainfall is now near or above the long-term average for each region. However, the season’s conclusion of near or above-average rainfall results from heavy rains within a short period in January and February and -in at least some areas- is unlikely to compensate for temporal deficits within the rainfall season.

    Despite the positive turnaround in rainfall performance, planting was delayed in Central and Northern Malawi. Remote sensing data suggest that the onset of the rains in these regions did not occur until late December or early January, approximately 30-40 days later than in 2020/21 and 10-20 days later than in 2015/16 (Figure 1), likely shortening the length of the rainfall season and time for crops to develop fully. As a result, maize crops are likely to be in earlier growth stages than the same period in previous years by late February. This was triangulated through both field reports and remote sensing data. Recent field reports by the Ministry of Agriculture offices indicate that most farming households did not plant until January,

    and crops are at mid and late vegetative stages instead of reproductive and maturity stages, which poses a danger of crops not maturing before the rains tail off in March 2022. Further, remote sensing data (Figure 2) similarly indicates that crops in large parts of Central and Northern Malawi remain in the vegetative stage for maize, as per the Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI). By contrast, during the same period in 2020, maize was in the reproductive stage for nearly all of Malawi. Similar to 2016, a known period of poor crop production, maize was in the country's reproductive stage, except for the southern region. Overall, a significant delay in planting has likely restricted the timeframe for maize to reach maturity before the traditional end of the rainfall season, despite the substantial improvement in rainfall performance in January and February.

    Furthermore, while total rainfall in Southern Malawi significantly increased in early 2022, this was primarily due to heavy rainfall and flooding brought on by Tropical Storm Ana, which crossed Malawi from January 24 to 26. The storm resulted in the loss of human life, flooding over most of the southern districts with reported cases of crop wash-aways, destruction of property, and death of livestock. According to DODMA and UN assessment reports, a total of 221,127 households (approximately 1 million people) have been negatively impacted by the disaster, including  46 dead, 18 missing, and 206 injured.  In addition, 32,935 households were displaced, with many located between the 178 camps across the 15 affected districts. According to updates in early February, affected households face widespread loss of food stocks, livelihood disruption, and reduced income. Further, early estimates indicate that at least 77,532 hectares of crops, mainly maize, groundnuts, soybeans, tobacco, rice, and cotton, have been either washed away or submerged in six heavily affected districts, Phalombe, Mulanje, Mangochi, Balaka, Chikwawa, and Nsanje (Figure 3).

    In addition to the poor performance of the rainy season, farmers in Malawi experienced their lowest access to subsidized inputs in two decades. In the 2021/22 planting season, small-scale farming households have reportedly failed to access adequate inputs from the government-subsidized Agriculture Input Program (AIP) and on the commercial market, where fertilizer prices had almost doubled compared to last season, increasing from around 21,000 MWK/50 kgs in 2020/21 to 35,000 MWK/50 kg in the 2021/22 production season. This is due primarily to lower imports of fertilizers: According to the Ministry of Agriculture’s February 2022 report, the month by which the seasonal distribution of subsidized fertilizers is typically complete, smallholder farmers’ access to subsidized fertilizers was at 61 percent, and seed access at 64 percent out of the 3.7 million targeted households. Typically, 95 to 100 percent access is achieved annually.

    An earlier concern of reduced agricultural labor opportunities and other income-generating activities among poorer households was reportedly mitigated by the positive performance of rainfall in January. On average, very poor and poor households earn around 10 to 30 percent of their food needs (in-kind payment) and 18 to 36 percent of the cash income needs from labor, making it a key livelihood source, especially in the lean season. While parts of the Southern region received rain by late November to mid-December 2021, the Central and Northern region received its effective planting rains from the end of December to the beginning of January 2022, ultimately delaying planting or, in some cases leading to replanting. Despite these factors, reports suggest that most households that depend on agricultural labor, which seasonally peaked during January and February, could maintain access to seasonally critical income sources.

    The MWK continues to depreciate against other major currencies, with the middle exchange rate by the end of January 2022 at 1 USD/822 MWK compared to 1 USD/776.49 MWK at the same time last year. The currency’s depreciation is due to lower inflows from tobacco exports and lower donor inflows. As of December 2021, Malawi’s inflation rate stood at 11.5 percent, up from 7.6 percent in December 2021, driven by price increases for fuel, transportation, and most food and essential non-food commodities. By January 2022, Malawi’s inflation rate rose further to a 2-year high of 12.1 percent.

    Food inflation accounts for roughly half of Malawi’s inflation. The MWK depreciation and rising inflation have increased food prices and reduced incomes from exported crops such as tobacco (the primary foreign exchange earner). In addition, Malawi faces a shortage of foreign currency due to its high demand for commercial and government imports amid reduced inflows.

    Informal maize imports, typically used to boost national stocks, are below average, driven by the country’s above-average maize stocks that have reduced the need for higher imports. The lower demand for informal imports is further supported by Malawi’s maize prices being lower than those in neighboring countries. According to FEWS NET monitoring data, informal maize imports were similar in February 2022 compared to the previous month and only 7 percent higher than the five-year average.  Informal maize exports increased significantly by 107 percent compared to the last month, equating to 812 percent higher than the five-year average. The higher exports are due to increased demand for maize in the East African region amid several countries experiencing severe drought and lower maize prices in Malawi.

    Between December 2021 and January 2022, the retail price of maize registered steep increases ranging from 13 to 40 percent across FEWS NET monitored markets. The average trend rate for this period is 22 percent. Despite these recent increases, prices remained stable or were trending at 5 to 16 percent below last year and 8 to 18 percent below the five-year average (Figure 4). Overall, the recorded prices in January and early February remain favorable for market-dependent households despite month-to-month increases, maintaining relatively high food access. The exception to this is in the Nsanje market, where maize prices are now higher than the same time last year and above the five-year average, driven by significantly delayed onset of rainfall and below-average market supplies as flooding from Tropical Storm Ana caused road infrastructure damage in toto Chikwawa and Nsanje. Typically, maize grain prices increase throughout the peak of the lean season, December through March, as market supplies decline due to an increase in market demand resulting from the increased number of households relying on the market. However, the below-average trends are likely the result of the high availability of maize grain from the 2020/2021 growing season.

    With Malawi having not gone into lockdown since the pandemic started, economic impacts which emerged at the start of the pandemic in Malawi in April 2020 have slowly dissipated. The daily case rate of COVID-19 infections is now much lower than the spikes registered in December 2021, when upwards of 1,265 were recorded daily. As of February 7, 2022, the daily positive rate was around 31 cases. The impacts of COVID-19 on the economy and livelihoods continue to reduce with most economic activities ongoing as workplaces and businesses have learned to operate within the COVID-19 restricted space.

    Households previously identified as food insecure by the MVAC in the Lower Shire livelihood zone and some pockets across the country are currently receiving humanitarian food assistance. The Lower Shire livelihood zone assistance is cash-based, but in other areas, the transfer modes are either cash or in-kind based on market functionality. Each beneficiary household receives a full monthly ration (or cash equivalent) amounting to 50kg of maize, 10 kgs of pulses, and 2 liters of cooking oil. Targeted households range from 5 to 20 percent of the district population. The ongoing assistance program is running from January to March 2022, covering the lean period.

    Tropical Storm Ana impacted between 10 to 52 percent of the total district populations in affected areas, with the heaviest impacted areas in southern Malawi. In response to Tropical Storm Ana, government partners, private companies, and groups have assisted affected households within villages and in displacement camps. The humanitarian assistance provided for these households is a mixture of food items, essential non-food items, and shelter-related assistance. However, FEWS NET cannot quantify this assistance as it is inconsistent with non-standardized rations provided based on local availability, the location chosen, and decisions made by the implementer.

    In Northern and parts of Central Malawi, while the start of the rainfall season is considered one of the driest on record, the onset and continuation of rainfall from mid-January onwards likely mitigated against widespread disruptions to agricultural labor, a critical income source for very poor and poor households. Further, high national maize supplies, which drove staple food prices in 2021 to the lowest in over five years, have also likely limited substantial spikes in current food prices, despite expectations of a below-average harvest for the 2021/22 season. Given these mitigating factors, most rural households in Northern and parts of Central regions are likely maintaining sufficient financial access to meet food and non-food needs, supporting Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes.

    In most districts in Southern and parts of the Central Malawi, erratic rainfall performance and Tropical Storm Ana have disrupted household livelihoods via displacement, interruption to planting, increased prices, and loss of income, in particular among poor households who were vulnerable to these shocks in Chikwawa, Nsanje, Mulanje, and Phalombe in southern Malawi; and parts of Dedza, Ntcheu, and Salima in Central Malawi. As a result, areas heavily impacted by Tropical Storm Ana are likely to have an increased number of households facing Stress (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.  Parts of the other affected districts, namely Neno, Balaka, Phalombe, Mulanje, Mwanza, Chiradzulu, Mangochi in Southern Malawi; and Ntcheu, Dedza, and Salima in Central Malawi are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to impacts of the tropical storm.

    Households that are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2) are likely to be poor households that were able to meet their basic food and non-food needs before the storm amid below-average staple food prices and access to seasonal livelihood activities but are now facing the loss of key income sources, limiting their capacity to meet their non-food needs. Households currently facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely very poor households that, prior to the storm, were already experiencing increasing food consumption gaps due to lean season dynamics and ongoing shocks in southern Malawi, particularly the Lower Shire Livelihood zone. As a result of the storm coupled with existing vulnerabilities, these households are likely experiencing substantial disruption to livelihoods and financial access to food due to a combination of loss of access to income-generating activities, displacement, and increased staple food prices. These households are also likely to have increased reliance on external assistance or usage of consumption-based coping to mitigate reduced access to food. In areas already being targeted with humanitarian food assistance, such as Nsanje and Chikwawa, very poor households previously classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are likely to benefit from assistance until March, when planned assistance is scheduled to finish. However, households that were not included in targeting plans before December but are now likely to be experiencing Stress (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are unlikely to receive food assistance under the ongoing drought response program. In Nsanje and Chikwawa, despite assistance being provided, an increasing population in need is linked to the erratic season, and Tropical Storm Ana has driven deterioration from Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

    National Assumptions

    The Food Security Outlook for February to September 2022 is based on the following national-level assumptions:

    • Cumulative rainfall for the 2021/22 season, ending in March, is expected to be near to average in most of Central and Northern Malawi and slightly below average in Southern and parts of Central. Further, the rainfall season is expected to finish in line with previous years: early-March for the south, mid-March for central, and late-March for the north. The combination of a late start and timely end will result in a shorter than average growing period for maize crops, limiting the time for crops to mature before harvest.
    • Flooding from Tropical Storm Ana, primarily in Southern region and parts of the Central region, will reduce the total hectares available for harvest, damage crops, and lower yields. FEWS NET anticipates national crop production, especially for the maize staple, will range between 75 and 90 percent of average, with variations across the three regions. In Northern Malawi, where early season deficits were later compensated for and Tropical Storm Ana had minimal impact, a near-normal harvest is likely at 90-100 percent of the long-term average. In Central Malawi, FEWS NET anticipates production at 70 to 85 percent of average and at 65 to 80 percent of average in Southern Malawi. Given that these latter two regions contribute significantly to total national production, losses will drive the anticipated below-average national production. 
    • Based on the carry-over stocks from 2021/22 (1.4 MMT), FEWS NET’s 2022 production estimates (2.5-3 M MT), and expected continuation of atypical informal exports trends, FEWS NET anticipates national maize supply for the 2022/23 consumption period to be at near normal (2.5 – 3.5 MMT). This is expected to meet domestic demand but will generate minimal to no carryover surplus from the 2022/23 consumption season.
    • FEWS NET anticipates many poor households in Central Malawi will realize below-average production and experience reduced income from crop sales. In Southern Malawi, FEWS NET also expects poor households to realize a relatively more substantial below-average crop production. Many will likely deplete household food stocks by around August, resulting in an earlier market dependency than usual.
    • Market supplies of the maize staple will remain above the seasonal average in the February to May period owing to available carryover stocks and new harvests. However, anticipated below-average production and increased informal exports will reduce market supplies in the post-harvest period starting from July 2022. Aggregate maize supply is therefore expected to be near the seasonal average. Below average maize supplies will likely be more pronounced in Southern Malawi markets, which typically depend on supply markets from central and northern regions.
    • Informal cross-border maize imports from Zambia and Mozambique are anticipated to remain lower than average from February to June. Informal imports into southern Malawi are expected to increase from July through the projection period, as an early depletion of food stocks will increase demand from very poor and poor households, placing upward pressure on prices and incentivizing traders to import into deficit producing areas.
    • From February to June, informal maize exports mainly into Tanzania will likely continue to be above average when market stocks are driven by high national food stocks and low domestic prices. Informal maize exports are anticipated to reduce to normal to slightly below typical rates in August 2022, as poor households deplete their food stocks, driving increased staple food prices and incentivizing traders to sell maize stocks domestically.
    • The Malawi Kwacha will likely depreciate against major foreign currencies, including the USD. The Kwacha, which is currently trading around 1USD/817 MWK, is projected to depreciate further, moving towards over 1 USD/900 MWK in 2022. Malawi’s lower foreign currency reserves coupled with projected lower cash crop production will drive further Kwacha depreciation. The depreciation is expected to increase inflation as imported goods and essential commodities, such as fuel, increase. Inflation for both food and non-food commodities will likely be further worsened by impacts of the world economy in reaction to the war in Ukraine, which will have upward pressure on oil prices in addition to increased prices in food and other goods.
    • FEWS NET projects that staple food prices will continue to increase yet remain below and near the five-year average in most markets across all three regions but may exceed the five-year average in the Lower Shire livelihood zone in southern Malawi until the start of harvest in from mid-March 2022. With the harvest, prices are likely to stabilize and decrease seasonally as food supplies increase; however, prices will remain average in the Centre and North and above average through southern Malawi's harvest period. By Mid-July, staple food prices are expected to increase earlier than normal in areas with substantial declines in production deficit-producing- areas, such as southern Malawi.
    • FEWS NET anticipates livestock prices to remain seasonally average to above average throughout most of the projection period, driven by high pasture availability, seasonal livestock market trends, and favorable food security among most households that own livestock, such as middle and better-off households.
    • The COVID-19 pandemic will likely continue throughout the outlook period, and spikes are anticipated given the low vaccination rates in Malawi. However, businesses and the general economic environment will continue improving as most people, companies, and institutions have adapted to operating within the confines of COVID 19-related restrictions. As a result, periodic enactment of preventive measures that will impact working hours, business working hours, public gatherings, border restrictions, and public transport capacity are expected. Incomes for poor households in urban areas will likely be near average as the economy recovers and workplaces adopt new measures.
    • Based on the progress of the rainy season, households’ income from agriculture labor is expected to be 20 to 30 percent below average during the outlook period. The reduction in agricultural labor opportunities will likely have the highest impact on very poor and poor households in all regions, who depend heavily on labor for in-kind or income to purchase food in markets from January to March.
    • In rural areas, petty trade and self-employment (including charcoal, firewood, and handicraft sales) are expected to be available at normal levels throughout the outlook period across most of the country. However, overall income levels earned from these opportunities are expected to be below average by about 20 to 30 percent in the Lower Shire livelihood zone and other districts of southern Malawi, as households will seek to expand this income source to mitigate food consumption gaps which will likely oversupply the market with similar goods, putting downward pressure on prices.
    • Very poor households previously identified as food insecure by the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) in December 2021 will continue to benefit from humanitarian food assistance through to March 2022, especially in the Lower Shire livelihood zone districts of Chikwawa and Nsanje, where 20 percent of the population are being targeted. However, substantial expansion of humanitarian assistance for households impacted by Tropical Storm Ana is not yet planned, funded, and likely.

    Most Likely Food Security Outcomes

    Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to persist through at least May 2022 in Northern and parts of Central Malawi, due to adequate availability of food and income. However, in Southern and parts of Central Malawi, the consequences of a below-average harvest and damage from Tropical Storm Ana is expected to drive many districts which were classified in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in previous post-harvest periods to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

    The worsening food security conditions for very poor, and to some extent poor, households in these areas are driven by a combination of underlying vulnerabilities to weather shocks combined with the impact of Tropical Storm Ana. In previous years, these households were likely to produce sufficient crops for their consumption, engage in income-generating activities, and most had the capacity and asset base to expand livelihood strategies to ensure adequate food consumption throughout the projection period. However, this year, very poor, and to some extent poor, households impacted by the poor rainfall performance and Tropical Storm Ana are likely to experience a below-average harvest, up to 25 percent below normal for worst affected areas, leading to earlier than normal depletion of household food stocks and earlier than normal increase in market reliance. The higher market reliance is likely to coincide with both reduced access to income-generating activities due to limited agricultural labor opportunities and depressed petty trade income and increased staple food prices due to a below-average national production, increasing inflation, and global food prices. While the previous year’s buffer harvest will likely mitigate against significant price increases, very poor households heavily impacted by the storm, particularly displaced households along Shire River and other flooded areas, are unlikely to have access to sufficient assets or income to maintain food security, with many poorer households shifting into Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes within the post-harvest period. By the end of the projection period, September 2022, an increased portion of very poor households will transition to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, as more households deplete food stocks and increase their market reliance as staple food prices rise. Further, after March 2022, there is currently no planned, funded, or likely humanitarian food assistance to mitigate these outcomes.

    As a result, FEWS NET projects households in Mangochi, Chiradzulu, Mwanza, Mulanje, Phalombe, Balaka, and Neno districts in southern Malawi, and parts of Salima, Dedza, and Ntcheu in central Malawi will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) from February to September 2022. Further, there is the potential these areas will transition to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes from October 2022, after the current outlook period. In Lower Shire livelihood zone districts of Nsanje and Chikwawa, which already suffered localized production losses last year, the relatively significant impacts of Tropical Storm Ana have worsened food security outcomes. While the ongoing humanitarian assistance had previously improved outcomes to Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) food security outcomes in the presence of humanitarian assistance, the widespread disruption to the of food access and livelihoods exceeds expected humanitarian assistance, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in Nsanje and Chikawawa throughout the projection.

    The prevalence of GAM among children under five is expected to remain low and within “acceptable” levels— defined as a GAM by weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) less than 5 percent. This will be supported by above-average availability and access to food for most rural households across the country from their previous production and market purchases and the upcoming harvests in April to June. However, malnutrition in districts that suffered from impacts of Tropical Storm Ana may worsen in the absence of adequate humanitarian food assistance and complimentary nutrition interventions.

    Events that Might Change the Outlook

    Possible events over the next eight months that could change the most-likely scenario.

    AreaEventImpact on food security outcomes
    NationalEarly cessation of rainSignificant 2021/22 rainfall and the agricultural season started one to two months late, leading to crop development being far behind normal. If the rains ceased earlier than mid-March, estimated crop production would be much more significant than current estimates, worsening food and income shortages in the 2022/23 consumption season. Higher production deficits would reduce consumption period of own crops and reduce crops for sale which would increase the period and numbers that households would require assistance especially in southern Malawi.
    NationalStormy Rains and floodingShould further heavy rains and flooding affect more extensive areas of the country, production prospects would reduce further than projected, especially in southern Malawi areas, which are prone to flooding. This would lead to an increased number of households across all wealth groups recording food and income gaps later in the season.
    NationalWorsening MacroeconomyThere is a likelihood of global economic fluctuations affecting the Malawi economy. With the war in Ukraine already causing food and fuel increases globally, there is anticipation that fuel and food prices which are increasing on the international market will likely trigger higher food and commodity prices in Malawi. This would worsen the current economic projections and increase the number of households that cannot meet all their annual food and non-food needs.
    SOUTHERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MALAWIPresence of Humanitarian assistanceSome households affected by the impacts of Tropical Storm Ana in some southern Malawi and parts of central Malawi districts have lost critical amounts of their livelihood entitlements and will likely be facing Stressed and Crisis food security outcomes in the absence of humanitarian food and shelter assistance and medium-term recovery assistance. The introduction of a well planned, funded, and systematic humanitarian assistance program would improve the food security outcomes to less severe phases throughout the coming consumption season from April 2022 to March 2023

    For more information on the outlook for specific areas of concern, please click the download button at the top of the page for the full report.

    Malawi Food Security Outlook February to September 2022: Tropical Storm Ana and drought impacts dampen national production prospects, 2022

    Figures Map of southern Africa indicating the onset of rains for 2nd Dekad of February for 2022, 2020, and 2016.

    Figure 1

    Figure 1. Onset of Rains, 2021/22 (top), 2019/20 (middle), 2015/16 (bottom)

    Source: USGS/EROS/FEWS NET

    Map of southern Africa indicating the onset of rains for 2nd Dekad of Febuary 2022, 2020, 2019. Central and northern Malawi a

    Figure 2

    Figure 2. Maize Season Progress, 2021/22, 2019/20, 2015/16

    Source: USGS/EROS/FEWS NET

    Map of the impacts from tropical storm Ana. The Southern part of malawi has high impact. Date of map is Janurary 2022.

    Figure 3

    Figure 3. Map of Tropical Storm Ana impacted areas, January 2022

    Source: DODMA

    Maize prices for Mitundu Market from July 2021 to January 2022. Prices are shown to be below average until increase sharply i

    Figure 4

    Figure 4. Mitundu Market maize prices, July 2021 – January 2022

    Source: FEWS NET

    Seasonal Calendar for Malawi

    Figure 5

    Malawi Seasonal Calender

    Source: FEWS NET

    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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