Lean season response begins with food assistance distribution in the South

• Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist through March 2026 in parts of southern Malawi — including Phalombe, Blantyre, Mulanje, Thyolo, Nsanje, and Chikwawa — and localized areas of the central region, driven by limited purchasing power, below-average labor opportunities, and above-average staple food prices.
• Maize prices remained atypically stable in December, averaging 1,178 MWK/kilogram (kg), as private traders reduced prices to offload stocks. This trend was reinforced by the government’s announcement to procure 200,000 metric tons (MT) of maize for the lean season response and Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC’s) price stabilization efforts. Additionally, the start of humanitarian food assistance in southern deficit-producing districts helped ease market demand. However, prices remain above average. In Mitundu, the national reference market, November maize prices were approximately 160 percent above the five-year average and 40 percent above last year, according to International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).  
• Between October 1 and December 20, rainfall has been average to above average across most areas, particularly along the lakeshore and in southern Malawi, supporting timely land preparation, planting, weeding, and fertilizer application. Above-average rainfall in southern and lakeshore areas has also improved water availability for domestic use and livestock, while pasture conditions have generally improved, supporting favorable livestock body conditions.  However, localized central and northern regions have received below-average rainfall, raising concerns for crop establishment.
• As the 2025/26 lean season humanitarian response continues to scale up, an increasing number of districts in southern Malawi —beyond Neno and Mwanza — are expected to transition from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) between January and March 2026. Beneficiaries are receiving either a 50 kg bag of maize or a cash transfer of 90,000 MWK per month, covering 25-50 percent of monthly kilocalorie needs. The response is expected to expand across the southern districts, including Mulanje, Thyolo, Nsanje, Chikwawa, and Blantyre. In the central region, Salima, Lilongwe, Dowa, and Nkhotakota are also expected to benefit from the program. 

This report provides an update to the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 23, 2025.

Weather: According to the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services, the 2025/26 rainfall season began 10-20 days earlier than average in several districts (Figure 1), supporting land preparation and planting. A dry spell from late-November to early December raised concerns about early-season moisture stress and seed germination; however, the rainfall resumed in mid-December, improving prospects for near-average production. Despite this, limited access to improved seeds and fertilizer persists, with many poor households relying on local seed sources and reduced fertilizer use, which is likely to constrain yields. Since the onset of the rainfall season in early October 2025, cumulative rainfall has been average to above average across most areas, although localized areas in central and parts of northern Malawi have experienced average to below-average rainfall.  

Macroeconomic conditions: The MWK appreciated slightly on the parallel market in November, trading at around 4,000 MWK/USD compared to 4,200 MWK/USD in October, while the official exchange rate remained fixed at 1,750 MWK/USD. 

Food prices: Maize prices remained atypically stable in November, averaging 1,178 MWK/kg, supported by government procurement of maize for the 2025/26 lean season response combined with ADMARC price stabilization efforts. The procured maize is expected to arrive in the coming weeks. The start of humanitarian food and cash distributions for lean season response in southern deficit-producing areas (Neno, Mwanza, Mulanje, Nsanje, Chikwawa) also helped reduce market demand. Despite this stability, prices remain well above average. In Mitundu, the national reference market, November maize prices were approximately 160 percent above the five-year average and 40 percent higher than last year, according to IFPRI data.

Inflation: The year-on-year inflation rate declined for the first time in six months in November 2025. According to the National Statistical Office of Malawi, headline inflation fell from 29.1 to 27.9 percent in November 2025, representing a 1.2 percentage point decline compared to October 2025, largely driven by a decline in food prices. Food inflation, the main contributor to the country’s inflation, dropped from 32.4 to 30.1 percent in December 2025; however, non-food inflation rose to 24.2 percent from 23.8 percent.

Agricultural labor: The early onset of the 2025/26 rainfall season across most areas has increased agricultural labor opportunities for land preparation, planting, and weeding. However, overall labor demand remains below average, particularly in southern areas, as better-off households have reduced hiring capacity, due to the previous season's below-average harvests, limiting income-earning opportunities for poor households. Although agricultural labor wage rates have increased, the pace of wage growth remains below overall inflation.  

Food availability: ADMARC started selling maize, primarily in deficit-producing southern districts at 1,300 MWK/kg (65,000 MWK/50 kg bag), slightly above prevailing market prices. National food stocks remain below the five-year average, although ADMARC expects deliveries of approximately 200,000 MT of maize purchased by the Government of Malawi from Zambia.

Import-export and foreign reserves: Foreign exchange reserves declined by 2.3 percent in September to 511.8 million USD from 523.9 million USD in August, slightly reducing import cover to two months. A year earlier, reserves stood at 560.3 million USD, according to the Reserve Bank of Malawi. Persistent low reserves and limited foreign exchange availability continue to drive macroeconomic instability, constrain access to essential imports — such as fuel, food, fertilizer, and medicines — and exacerbate pressure on the exchange rate. The persistent foreign exchange shortages in the country continue to constrain the government’s ability to finance essential imports. According to the Fertilizer Association of Malawi, only 285,000 MT of fertilizer were imported in 2025, well below the minimum requirement of 450,000 MT per year. 

Humanitarian food assistance

The 2025/26 lean season humanitarian response began in November and is gradually expanding to additional districts. By mid-December, food assistance was delivered to at least 25 percent of the population in Neno and Mwanza, with beneficiaries receiving approximately 25-50 percent of their monthly kilocalorie requirements. In other targeted districts, coverage remains below 25 percent. According to the Department of Disaster Management Affairs, nearly 60 percent of the funding required for humanitarian assistance has been secured.

The assumptions that underpinned FEWS NET’s analysis of the most likely scenario for the Malawi Food Security Outlook from October 2025 to May 2026  remain valid; however, the following updates have been made to incorporate new evidence:

• Between January and March 2026, total rainfall is expected to be generally average to above average countrywide. However, localized areas — particularly in parts of surplus-producing districts Mchinji, Dowa, Kasungu, and Lilongwe —are projected to experience average to below-average precipitation. In southern Malawi, above-average rainfall is expected to increase the risk of flooding, particularly in low-lying and flood-prone areas.
• Maize prices are expected to follow seasonal trends and increase between December and March. However, the rate of increase will likely be slower than typical due to government interventions, including ADMARC sales and the planned distribution of imported maize through the 2025/26 lean season response program.
• Above-average numbers of tropical cyclones and tropical storms are likely between January and March 2026, increasing the risk of flooding or crop and livestock damage in southern Malawi.
• Access to agricultural inputs will likely remain constrained due to above-average fertilizer prices and a reduced number of beneficiary households under the government’s Farm Input Subsidy Program. As a result, the area planted with maize and productivity is expected to decline as some farmers shift to less input-intensive crops such as legumes.

Humanitarian food assistance

Humanitarian food assistance is expected to expand across the southern and central Malawi through March 2026. More than 60 percent of the funding required for the 2025/26 lean season response is secured, enabling a higher-than initially anticipated level of food assistance through March 2026. 

Southern Malawi

Humanitarian assistance that began in November – and is expected to scale up through March 2026 in Neno and Mwanza districts – is anticipated to mitigate Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. As a result, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected to persist through March 2026. Seasonal improvements in food access are anticipated between April and May as households begin consuming food from the upcoming harvest and earn income from crop sales and harvesting labor. Consequently, most poor households in these districts are likely to maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through May 2026. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in Mulanje, Thyolo, Phalombe, Nsanje, and Chikwawa through March 2026, driven by low household purchasing power and above-average food prices that continue to limit access to market purchases. Elsewhere in southern Malawi, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to be driven by reduced purchasing power amid continued market dependence for food, partially supported by near-average income from agricultural labor, including planting, weeding, and fertilizer application. While households are expected to meet their minimum food needs, they remain unable to afford essential livelihood inputs such as improved seeds and fertilizer. Nutrition outcomes are expected to deteriorate seasonally at the peak of the lean season, with global acute malnutrition (GAM) rates near the 5 percent threshold in several districts. Parts of Lower Shire, particularly Chikwawa and Nsanje, are likely to record GAM prevalence rates slightly above 5 percent but below 9.9 percent (Alert levels of malnutrition).

Central Malawi

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in Salima, Lilongwe, and localized areas of Nkhotakota through March 2026. In these districts, poor households will increasingly rely on market purchases after exhausting their own-produced food stocks amid above-average food prices, limited income-earning opportunities, and reduced purchasing power. Poor households will likely face food consumption gaps and apply coping strategies such as reducing meal frequency and size, consuming less preferred foods, and occasionally skipping meals for an entire day. 

Food security outcomes in most of central Malawi are anticipated to improve from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between April and May, supported by the expected average 2026 harvest and increased income from crop sales and agricultural labor. Other parts of the central region are expected to face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through May, driven by continued access to own-produced food and typical income sources.

Northern Malawi

In northern Malawi, most areas are expected to face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through May 2026, supported by continued consumption of own-produced food and income from the favorable 2024/25 tobacco season. However, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are anticipated in parts of Karonga District through March 2026, driven by reduced maize and rice production following mid-season dry spells. Despite these localized production shortfalls, most households are expected to maintain adequate food stocks and earn typical income through standard livelihood activities, enabling them to meet essential food and non-food needs. Seasonal deterioration in acute malnutrition is projected through February, consistent with lean-season trends driven by reduced food access and an increase in waterborne diseases. However, GAM prevalence is expected to remain within Acceptable levels (< 5 percent). 

Many of the key sources of evidence utilized for FEWS NET’s Malawi Food Security Outlook from October 2025 to May 2026 remain the same; however, new and additional sources of evidence are listed below.