Below-average harvest and high food prices drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the south

• Southern districts of Malawi are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes driven by the recent poor harvest and below-average purchasing power. Worst-affected districts include Neno, Mwanza, Blantyre, Mulanje, Thyolo, and Phalombe where widespread crop and livestock losses and infrastructure damage occurred during the October 2024 to March 2025 rainy season. Moderately affected districts of Nsanje, Chikwawa, and Balaka will most likely transition to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes by December. Households will deplete any available food stocks atypically early and will be market reliant amid high staple food prices. Elsewhere in the southern region, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected through January 2026.
• In most of the central and northern surplus-producing areas, households are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes due to access to own-produced food stocks from the 2025 harvest. Some of central areas will likely face Stressed (IPC Phase 2), as households exhaust their food stocks and become market reliant amid likely below-average purchasing power. Salima, Lilongwe, and parts of Nkhotakota will most likely experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to the depletion of food stocks amid above-average food prices and below-average income-earning opportunities, driving reduced purchasing power.
• Maize prices remain significantly above the five-year average across all monitored markets, according to data from the International Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). In July, prices at the national reference market in Mitundu were approximately 40 percent and 180 percent higher than the same period last year and the five-year average, respectively. Maize prices are expected to remain significantly above average through January 2026 at approximately 150 percent above the five-year average and 30 percent above the same time last year. These elevated prices are likely to constrain household purchasing power and contribute to reduced food access, particularly for market-dependent households.
• Typically, the government and its partners implement humanitarian assistance programming between October and March, targeting households classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse. However, planning and resource mobilization for the 2025/26 response are currently pending approval by the government and are expected to be available in October.

Maize production. According to the third round Agricultural Production Estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture,the 2025 national maize harvest is estimated at around 22 percent below the five-year average following the relatively poor 2024/25 rainfall season and reduced input availability from the Affordable Input Program (due to late delivery and localized inadequate availability of fertilizer). Southern districts, particularly Neno, Mwanza, Mulanje, Thyolo, and Phalombe, experienced poor rainfall and above-average temperatures during the 2024 planting period, resulting in moisture deficits, poor crop germination, replanting needs, and reduced area planted, all of which contributed to a below-average 2025 harvest. Additionally, Cyclones Chido (December 2024) and Jude (March 2025) caused widespread flooding, crop and livestock losses, and damage to infrastructure. Maize production in these districts is estimated at only 25-35 percent of the five-year average. The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee June field assessment report indicates that over 30 percent of households in southern Malawi areas severely affected by the 2024/25 climatic shocks have already depleted their own-produced food stocks three months earlier than normal. 

Macroeconomy. Malawi continues to face persistent macroeconomic difficulties characterized by external shocks, sluggish structural growth, and unsustainable fiscal and debt trajectories. Annual inflation remains elevated, primarily driven by currency devaluation, rapid money supply growth, and the widening gap between official and parallel market exchange rates. Annual headline inflation has eased slightly since the same time last year; however, it remains elevated at 27.3 percent in July, similar to the previous month. Persistently high inflation continues to erode household purchasing power. Non-food inflation stood at 19.3 percent, largely driven by cost-push pressures from the depreciation of parallel foreign exchange rates. Persistent foreign exchange shortages continue to widen the gap between official and parallel market exchange rates, according to the World Bank’s July 2025 Malawi Economic Monitor, increasing the cost of imported fuel, fertilizer, and medicines. Although the official exchange rate has remained unchanged, demand for foreign currency has remained relatively high, forcing the parallel market rate to depreciate over the same period. Currently, Malawi’s foreign exchange reserves cover less than three months of imports (below the internationally recommended threshold of three months), likely impacting the ability to import key commodities such as fertilizer and fuel. 

The government’s economic reform program, supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Extended Credit Facility and development partner support, was automatically terminated in May 2025 due to unmet conditions. The termination of IMF support leaves a financial support gap and heightens the risks of macroeconomic imbalances. The termination signaled a loss of confidence from international lenders, blocking access to additional donor funds and concessional loans that were contingent on IMF engagement in addition to the stoppage of foreign exchange injection by the IMF. The shortage of foreign exchange and sluggish economic growth threaten employment in agriculture and informal sectors, as most investments continue to face hardship in accessing sufficient foreign exchange, directly affecting most low-income, labor-wage reliant households.

Staple food prices. Maize prices remain significantly above average in July, at approximately 40 and 170 percent above the same time last year and the five-year average, respectively, according to IFPRI Maize Market July Report. Increasing prices are primarily attributed to a more than 20 percent below-average national maize production and minimal carry-over stocks from the previous season.

Tobacco sales. The tobacco marketing season has been extended through the end of August at the Chinkhoma and Lilongwe auction floors to allow farmers to complete sales, while most auction floors were scheduled to close by the end of August. To date, approximately 200 million kilograms (kg) of tobacco have been sold, representing a 70 percent increase compared to the five-year average. The total value of sales reached about 500 million USD, the highest in over 20 years. However, the average price per kg has declined from 2.98 to 2.54 USD compared to the previous season. Despite the lower average price, the significantly higher volume of sales has resulted in increased aggregate income for tobacco-producing farmers, particularly in central and northern Malawi. The favorable tobacco season has resulted in record-high foreign exchange earnings and improved income levels in tobacco-growing districts in the central and northern regions, supporting typical income levels.  

Household income. Households in the southern districts of Malawi are facing reduced income levels due to decreased agricultural opportunities and significantly below-average maize, groundnut, and cotton production. Cotton production (previously the main cash crop in the south along with groundnuts) has been declining due to marketing challenges (farmers cannot find good markets and better cotton prices). Income from non-agricultural labor is currently below normal due to poor economic conditions that are negatively affecting both the agricultural and informal sectors, where most rural households work. 

Poor households in tobacco-producing central and northern Malawi benefited from a favorable harvest and above-average income from sales, despite lower prices per kg compared to last year. Given the labor-intensive nature of tobacco production, demand for agricultural labor has increased during land preparation, resulting in typical income levels.

FEWS NET’s scenario development process is used to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

• Rainfall from October to December (the start of the October 2025 to March 2026 season), is expected to be average and timely;however, below-average rainfall is expected in the north. The likelihood of excessive rainfall events in southern Malawi is anticipated to increase with the start of the tropical cyclone season in November.
• Planting for the 2025/26 agricultural season is expected to be below-average in the southern areas due to input access challenges following consecutive years of poor harvest and eroded purchasing power but average in the  central and northern areas of the country.
• Agricultural labor opportunities are expected to be below average, particularly in southern Malawi, due to limited hiring capacity among better-off households; however, opportunities will likely remain average in central and northern tobacco-producing districts due to above-average tobacco incomes. Wage rates are likely to rise modestly but remain below overall inflation, limiting improvements in household purchasing power.
• The national maize supply will likely be below average following the significantly below-average 2025 national maize harvest and minimal carry-over stocks. Malawi’s national maize production for the 2025/26 consumption year is estimated at 2.9 million MT against a national requirement of 3.7 million MT, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Informal and formal imports are likely to help augment domestic supplies and meet market demand.
• Poor macroeconomic conditions are expected to persist, driven by low structural growth, unsustainable fiscal and debt dynamics, rapid money supply growth, and a widening gap between official and parallel foreign exchange rates. The Reserve Bank of Malawi projects that annual inflation will reach around 32 percent by December 2025 as the exchange rate and fiscal pressures are expected to persist, including increased domestic borrowing, government overspending, and currency depreciation.
• Maize prices are expected to continue rising through January 2026. Prices will most likely exceed those observed during the same period last year and above the five-year average, driven by below-average national maize production and increased market demand. Cross-border inflows of maize grain will remain strong, capping prices especially during the lean season.
• Livestock body conditions are expected to remain fair through January, supported by the availability of water and pasture following above-average cumulative rainfall during the second half of the 2024/25 rainy season and expected average rainfall for the 2025/26 rainfall season. Herd sizes are anticipated to be near average in most areas, but below average for poor households in parts of southern Malawi that have experienced repeated shocks in recent years.
• Livestock prices are expected to be above average in most areas, consistent with general price increases. In cyclone-affected southern districts, livestock prices are likely to be below average due to increased distress sales. With more households selling their livestock to access food, livestock supply is expected to be high in the local markets, leading to below-average livestock prices in these areas.
• Informal cross-border maize imports (particularly from Mozambique and Zambia) are expected to remain above average as traders and households seek to offset the national maize deficit following below-average 2025 production. 

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. 

From August to September 2025, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected in southern Malawi following below-average harvests, particularly in the districts of Phalombe, Mulanje, Thyolo, Neno, Mwanza, and Blantyre. Most poor households in these areas are expected to be heavily reliant on market purchases. Access to food is anticipated to remain constrained by above-average food prices and below-average income. Poor households will continue to have below-average purchasing power and are likely to engage in consumption-based coping strategies such as reducing meal frequency and portion sizes and consuming less preferred foods. In worst-affected districts, the global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate is likely to be at Alert (5-9.9 percent) levels. Some districts in the south are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, as poor households prioritize food purchases over other essential non-food items due to anticipated average own production and income-earning opportunities. Several districts in central and northern regions are likely to face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, supported by near-average crop production and average income among poor households. However, in Lilongwe and Nkhotakota, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely due to below-average crop production and elevated food prices, compounded by reduced income-earning opportunities. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely in Salima due to significant localized reductions in crop production and income, resulting in below-average purchasing power. Poor households in Salima are expected to start employing consumption-based coping strategies such as reducing the number of meals per day and consuming less preferred food. 

From October 2025 to January 2026, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist in the southern districts (Phalombe, Mulanje, Thyolo, Neno, Mwanza, Blantyre). Market access is expected to remain limited, driven by below-average household incomes and elevated food prices amid reduced market supply. Chikwawa, Nsanje, and Balaka districts are expected to transition from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from October through January due to early depletion of food stocks and limited income sources, and the GAM rate is expected to remain at Alert (5-9.9 percent) through January. Poor households will likely continue to rely on consumption-based coping strategies (such as reducing meal frequency and consuming less-preferred foods) and livelihood-based coping strategies (such as selling productive assets and migrating atypically early to Mozambique for labor). In the remaining southern districts, some improvements in staple crop production and income-earning opportunities are anticipated to drive Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through January, supporting above-average food access and purchasing power of most households.    

In central and northern Malawi, Lilongwe, Salima, and Nkhotakota districts are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through January 2026, with several districts in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and the rest of the regions largely in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). In Lilongwe, Nkhotakota and Salima districts Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are most likely, as middle and better-off households are expected to experience reduced hiring capacity due to income losses from both food and cash crops, driven by mid-season dry spells in Lilongwe and flood-related crop damage in Nkhotakota. As a result, poor households will likely face below-average income from agricultural labor. Coupled with above-average food price, poor households are expected to face limited food access. Poor households are expected to face food consumption gaps and likely to reduce meal frequency and switch to less preferred foods, as well as livelihood-based strategies, including the sale of remaining livestock resources.

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

Further currency devaluation  

Further devaluation of the MWK will likely exacerbate inflation, increasing food insecurity and further eroding household purchasing power. Rising import costs — particularly for fuel and fertilizer — will increase production and transportation expenses, contributing to persistently high staple food prices. Elevated fertilizer costs may discourage planting and reduce area planted, limiting seasonal labor opportunities for poor households. This will also likely increase the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance.

Delayed rainfall onset and erratic rainfall

A late onset, erratic distribution, and below-average rainfall would likely reduce labor opportunities, constrain water availability for both human and livestock use, and worsen acute food insecurity outcomes, particularly in southern Malawi. This would likely lead to an increase in the number of people in need of humanitarian assistance.