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Malawi

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Food Security Outlook Update
August 2023
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in south, but food assistance remains inadequate
  • Southern districts of Malawi heavily impacted by Tropical Cyclone Freddy and subsequent flooding are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. These areas include Chikwawa, Nsanje, Phalombe, Balaka, and parts of Mwanza, Neno, Zomba, and Blantyre districts. Districts in the southern part of the country that suffered relatively less damage from the cyclone, such as the Shire Highlands livelihood zone, are anticipated to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes due to below-average harvests resulting from dry spells and flooding in localized lakeshore areas in central and northern Malawi. In contrast, FEWS NET assesses household cereal stocks and income from cash crops will most likely continue to support Minimal/None (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes in most of central and northern Malawi.

  • Even though the main harvest was concluded in August, the country's food reserves are depleting at a faster rate than usual, and they are inadequate to meet the increasing consumption demand. Moreover, the prices of maize have experienced a significant surge, showing a 110 percent increase compared to the previous year and 230 percent increase compared to the five-year average. This upward price increment is expected to persist, with a projected additional rise of 20-30 percent over the upcoming two to three months. The escalation in prices, which is also reflected by high food inflation, is driven by multiple factors, including a below-average harvest, below-normal food reserves at the national level, and a heightened demand for maize.

  • In the upcoming lean season, which is anticipated to start earlier than initially predicted in November, households are expected to exhaust their food reserves and turn to buying food, amid elevated food prices. As farmers’ resources become limited, it is challenging for them to obtain seeds and access to subsidized fertilizer, putting them in a difficult position. As a consequence, it is likely that farmers will reduce the area planted during the 2023/24 crop growing season and also shift their focus to cultivating alternative crops such as soya beans. Moreover, the increased costs of fuel are expected to further add more pressure on expenditures for agricultural inputs, food and non-food costs.   

  • Climate forecasts suggest increasing confidence in a strong El Niño by late 2023. In Malawi, El Niño is typically correlated with below-average rainfall in the south and above-average rainfall in the north. Based on historical trends during El Niño years, the onset of the main rainy season between October and December will most likely be delayed with mixed performance, especially in the south. Irregular rainfall will most likely compound the impacts of reduced access to agricultural inputs on planted area, which will in turn affect income-earning among poor households who rely on agricultural labor opportunities. Close monitoring of rainfall totals and distribution will be required to assess the severity of adverse impacts on cropping conditions for the 2023/24 harvest. There is particular concern for areas in the south that already experienced significant crop losses due to cyclones in 2022 and 2023. Both the government and donors should proactively prepare for an anticipated surge in food assistance needs in 2024.

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Latest Analysis Latest Analysis
View All Malawi Analysis
Food Security
Key Message Update Rising food prices and cyclone impacts drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in south Malawi July 2023
Food Security Outlook Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in southern Malawi, driven by cyclone impacts Malawi June 2023 - January 2024
Key Message Update Crisis persists in the south, while seasonal harvests benefit north-central Malawi Malawi May 2023
Agroclimatology
Global Weather Hazards Flooding spreads into southeastern Africa, while parts of southern Africa remain abnormally dry Global February 17, 2023 - February 23, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Markets & Trade
Price Bulletin Malawi Price Bulletin Malawi August 2023
Price Bulletin Malawi Price Bulletin Malawi July 2023
Price Bulletin Malawi Price Bulletin Malawi June 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
No reports available.
Food Security
Key Message Update Rising food prices and cyclone impacts drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in south Malawi July 2023
Food Security Outlook Crisis (IPC Phase 3) persists in southern Malawi, driven by cyclone impacts Malawi June 2023 - January 2024
Key Message Update Crisis persists in the south, while seasonal harvests benefit north-central Malawi Malawi May 2023
Agroclimatology
Global Weather Hazards Flooding spreads into southeastern Africa, while parts of southern Africa remain abnormally dry Global February 17, 2023 - February 23, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Global Weather Hazards Southern Africa experiences flooding, while abnormal dryness continues in Eastern Africa Global February 10, 2023 - February 16, 2023
Markets & Trade
Price Bulletin Malawi Price Bulletin Malawi August 2023
Price Bulletin Malawi Price Bulletin Malawi July 2023
Price Bulletin Malawi Price Bulletin Malawi June 2023
Alerts / Special Reports
No reports available.
Food Security Classification Data View all Malawi classification data
Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification (July 2023 - January 2024)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (July 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile July 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification July 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: July 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: July 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML)
Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification (June 2023 - January 2024)

Current (June 2023) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (June 2023 - September 2023) and medium term (October 2023 - January 2024) periods.

Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile June 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification June 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Current Situation: June 2023 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.png) (PNG) Current Situation: June 2023 (.kml) (KML) Near Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: October 2023 - January 2024 (.kml) (KML)
Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification (May 2023 - September 2023)

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (May 2023) and medium term (June 2023 - September 2023) periods.

Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile May 2023 (.zip) (ZIP) Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification May 2023 (.geojson) (GeoJSON) Near Term Projection: May 2023 (.png) (PNG) Medium Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.png) (PNG) Near Term Projection: May 2023 (.kml) (KML) Medium Term Projection: June 2023 - September 2023 (.kml) (KML)
Seasonal Calendar Seasonal Calendar
Description

The Seasonal Calendar shows the annual and cyclical patterns of key food and income sources in a country throughout the typical year.

Malawi Seasonal Calendar
Production & Trade Flow Maps
FEWS NET captures the market networks for a product in a given country or region, including their catchments and trade flow patterns.
Maize, Normal Year
Remote Sensing Imagery Remote Sensing Imagery
Description

USGS-provided data and imagery supports FEWS NET's monitoring efforts of weather and climate throughout the world.

View all remotely sensed imagery
Livelihood Zone Resources Livelihood Zone Resources
Malawi Livelihood Baseline Profiles, March 2016 Malawi Rural Baseline, September 2005 Malawi Livelihood Zone Map, July 2015
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