Malawi

Southern districts of Malawi heavily impacted by Tropical Cyclone Freddy and subsequent flooding are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. These areas include Chikwawa, Nsanje, Phalombe, Balaka, and parts of Mwanza, Neno, Zomba, and Blantyre districts. Districts in the southern part of the country that suffered relatively less damage from the cyclone, such as the Shire Highlands livelihood zone, are anticipated to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes due to below-average harvests resulting from dry spells and flooding in localized lakeshore areas in central and northern Malawi. In contrast, FEWS NET assesses household cereal stocks and income from cash crops will most likely continue to support Minimal/None (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes in most of central and northern Malawi.

Even though the main harvest was concluded in August, the country's food reserves are depleting at a faster rate than usual, and they are inadequate to meet the increasing consumption demand. Moreover, the prices of maize have experienced a significant surge, showing a 110 percent increase compared to the previous year and 230 percent increase compared to the five-year average. This upward price increment is expected to persist, with a projected additional rise of 20-30 percent over the upcoming two to three months. The escalation in prices, which is also reflected by high food inflation, is driven by multiple factors, including a below-average harvest, below-normal food reserves at the national level, and a heightened demand for maize.

In the upcoming lean season, which is anticipated to start earlier than initially predicted in November, households are expected to exhaust their food reserves and turn to buying food, amid elevated food prices. As farmers’ resources become limited, it is challenging for them to obtain seeds and access to subsidized fertilizer, putting them in a difficult position. As a consequence, it is likely that farmers will reduce the area planted during the 2023/24 crop growing season and also shift their focus to cultivating alternative crops such as soya beans. Moreover, the increased costs of fuel are expected to further add more pressure on expenditures for agricultural inputs, food and non-food costs.   

Climate forecasts suggest increasing confidence in a strong El Niño by late 2023. In Malawi, El Niño is typically correlated with below-average rainfall in the south and above-average rainfall in the north. Based on historical trends during El Niño years, the onset of the main rainy season between October and December will most likely be delayed with mixed performance, especially in the south. Irregular rainfall will most likely compound the impacts of reduced access to agricultural inputs on planted area, which will in turn affect income-earning among poor households who rely on agricultural labor opportunities. Close monitoring of rainfall totals and distribution will be required to assess the severity of adverse impacts on cropping conditions for the 2023/24 harvest. There is particular concern for areas in the south that already experienced significant crop losses due to cyclones in 2022 and 2023. Both the government and donors should proactively prepare for an anticipated surge in food assistance needs in 2024.