Malawi

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Key Message Update January - May 2026 Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in the south as food needs reach an annual peak Download the report
  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through March 2026 in Thyolo and Nsanje districts in southern Malawi, driven by below-average income and reduced purchasing power, which limit poor households’ ability to purchase sufficient food from the market. Household income is below average, associated with the high competition for fewer than normal agricultural labor opportunities. Poor households are resorting to consumption-based coping strategies, including reducing meal sizes and frequencies and eating less preferred foods.
  • Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected through March 2026 in Neno, Mwanza, Phalombe, Mulanje, Chikwawa, and Blantyre, as food assistance mitigates food consumption deficits. In contrast, most northern districts and the remaining central areas are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, supported by continued consumption of food stocks from own harvests and typical access to income from agricultural labor, petty trade, and other informal livelihood activities. Seasonal improvements in food access are anticipated countrywide starting in April, as households start consuming food from the harvest and earning income from crop sales and agricultural labor.
  • The October 2025 to April 2026 rainfall season has been largely favorable through late January. The season started 10-20 days earlier than average in many southern and central districts, while the onset in parts of the north was on time to slightly delayed. While rainfall has been largely favorable across the country, there is a risk of flooding, especially in low-lying areas in the central and southern regions. However, localized areas of Salima and Mangochi districts experienced erratic rainfall, including a dry spell in late November and mid-January, negatively impacting planting and crop development.  
  • Given the favorable rainy season, the 2026 harvest is expected to be average to above average, particularly for maize. A field assessment conducted by FEWS NET in mid-January found healthy crop conditions in southern Malawi. Countrywide, cropping conditions are generally favorable, with crops in the vegetative to reproductive stage. The rainfall has also improved pasture and water availability for livestock, supporting favorable body conditions. These favorable conditions are expected to increase income from livestock and crop sales, especially as the harvesting season begins.
  • According to the National Statistical Office (NSO), annual headline inflation eased from nearly 28 percent in November to 26 percent in December 2025. The deceleration was primarily driven by a slowdown in food inflation, which fell from 30.1 to 26.5 percent over the same period. In contrast, non-food inflation increased slightly from 24.2 percent in November to 25.2 percent in December 2025. Despite this decline in food inflation, food prices remain above average.
  • Maize grain prices typically rise between November and December; however, between November and December 2025, maize prices remained stable, averaging 1,172.79 MWK/kilogram (kg) across the 27 International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)-monitored markets. The stability in prices is driven by increased market supply as traders and farmers released stocks previously held in anticipation of higher lean-season prices. Additionally, the high likelihood of a favorable 2026 harvest is encouraging further offloading of stocks to create storage space. Ongoing humanitarian assistance in the south and in-kind payments for agricultural labor have reduced demand for maize on the market by poor households. Despite these favorable supply and demand dynamics, maize prices remain above the five-year average due to higher production and transportation costs. In Mitundu, the national reference market, December prices were 67 percent above the five-year average and 20 percent above last year's prices.
  • To support the 2025/26 lean season response, the government of Malawi planned to import 200,000 metric tons (MT) of maize from Zambia to be implemented between November 2025 and March 2026. Of the 200,000 MT, more than 16,000 MT were delivered by mid-January, with more stocks continuing to arrive daily. Malawi’s Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC) entered the lean season with only 10,000 MT of carryover maize stocks, which is lower than last year and below the five-year average, constraining its capacity to support food assistance distributions.
  • In several districts of southern Malawi, food assistance distribution is delayed or not yet started. Although the anticipated lean-season response scale-up is underway and most districts have completed beneficiary registration, food distributions have only occurred once. A mid-January FEWS NET field assessment found that several southern districts, including Neno and Mwanza, received only the November distribution, with December deliveries still pending. Assistance in other districts, like Thyolo and Nsanje, has not yet begun, resulting in delays of up to two months.
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Food Security Classification data View all Malawi Food Security Classification data
Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (December 2025 - January 2026) and medium term (February 2026 - May 2026) periods.

 Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile December 2025 (.zip) Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification December 2025 (.geojson) Near Term Projection: December 2025 - January 2026 (.png) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.png) Near Term Projection: December 2025 - January 2026 (.kml) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.kml) Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (November 2025 - January 2026) and medium term (February 2026 - May 2026) periods.

 Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile November 2025 (.zip) Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification November 2025 (.geojson) Near Term Projection: November 2025 - January 2026 (.png) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.png) Near Term Projection: November 2025 - January 2026 (.kml) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.kml) Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification

Current (October 2025) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (October 2025 - January 2026) and medium term (February 2026 - May 2026) periods.

 Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile October 2025 (.zip) Malawi Acute Food Insecurity Classification October 2025 (.geojson) Current Situation: October 2025 (.png) Near Term Projection: October 2025 - January 2026 (.png) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.png) Current Situation: October 2025 (.kml) Near Term Projection: October 2025 - January 2026 (.kml) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.kml)
Seasonal Calendar

The Seasonal Calendar shows the annual and cyclical patterns of key food and income sources in a country throughout the typical year.
Seasonal Calendar image showing harvest and rainy periods for Malawi
Production & Trade Flow Maps
FEWS NET captures the market networks for a product in a given country or region, including their catchments and trade flow patterns.
Maize, Normal Year
Satellite-derived products map

USGS-provided data and imagery supports FEWS NET's monitoring efforts of weather and climate throughout the world.

View all satellite-derived products
Livelihood Zone resources Malawi Livelihood Baseline Profiles, March 2016 Malawi Rural Baseline, September 2005 Malawi Livelihood Zone Map, July 2015
Malawi 2015 Livelihood Zones Map (.PNG)
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