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Latest food security analysis

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Key messages
Key Message Update January - May 2026 Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist in the south as food needs reach an annual peak Download the report
  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through March 2026 in Thyolo and Nsanje districts in southern Malawi, driven by below-average income and reduced purchasing power, which limit poor households’ ability to purchase sufficient food from the market. Household income is below average, associated with the high competition for fewer than normal agricultural labor opportunities. Poor households are resorting to consumption-based coping strategies, including reducing meal sizes and frequencies and eating less preferred foods.
  • Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected through March 2026 in Neno, Mwanza, Phalombe, Mulanje, Chikwawa, and Blantyre, as food assistance mitigates food consumption deficits. In contrast, most northern districts and the remaining central areas are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, supported by continued consumption of food stocks from own harvests and typical access to income from agricultural labor, petty trade, and other informal livelihood activities. Seasonal improvements in food access are anticipated countrywide starting in April, as households start consuming food from the harvest and earning income from crop sales and agricultural labor.
  • The October 2025 to April 2026 rainfall season has been largely favorable through late January. The season started 10-20 days earlier than average in many southern and central districts, while the onset in parts of the north was on time to slightly delayed. While rainfall has been largely favorable across the country, there is a risk of flooding, especially in low-lying areas in the central and southern regions. However, localized areas of Salima and Mangochi districts experienced erratic rainfall, including a dry spell in late November and mid-January, negatively impacting planting and crop development.  
  • Given the favorable rainy season, the 2026 harvest is expected to be average to above average, particularly for maize. A field assessment conducted by FEWS NET in mid-January found healthy crop conditions in southern Malawi. Countrywide, cropping conditions are generally favorable, with crops in the vegetative to reproductive stage. The rainfall has also improved pasture and water availability for livestock, supporting favorable body conditions. These favorable conditions are expected to increase income from livestock and crop sales, especially as the harvesting season begins.
  • According to the National Statistical Office (NSO), annual headline inflation eased from nearly 28 percent in November to 26 percent in December 2025. The deceleration was primarily driven by a slowdown in food inflation, which fell from 30.1 to 26.5 percent over the same period. In contrast, non-food inflation increased slightly from 24.2 percent in November to 25.2 percent in December 2025. Despite this decline in food inflation, food prices remain above average.
  • Maize grain prices typically rise between November and December; however, between November and December 2025, maize prices remained stable, averaging 1,172.79 MWK/kilogram (kg) across the 27 International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)-monitored markets. The stability in prices is driven by increased market supply as traders and farmers released stocks previously held in anticipation of higher lean-season prices. Additionally, the high likelihood of a favorable 2026 harvest is encouraging further offloading of stocks to create storage space. Ongoing humanitarian assistance in the south and in-kind payments for agricultural labor have reduced demand for maize on the market by poor households. Despite these favorable supply and demand dynamics, maize prices remain above the five-year average due to higher production and transportation costs. In Mitundu, the national reference market, December prices were 67 percent above the five-year average and 20 percent above last year's prices.
  • To support the 2025/26 lean season response, the government of Malawi planned to import 200,000 metric tons (MT) of maize from Zambia to be implemented between November 2025 and March 2026. Of the 200,000 MT, more than 16,000 MT were delivered by mid-January, with more stocks continuing to arrive daily. Malawi’s Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation (ADMARC) entered the lean season with only 10,000 MT of carryover maize stocks, which is lower than last year and below the five-year average, constraining its capacity to support food assistance distributions.
  • In several districts of southern Malawi, food assistance distribution is delayed or not yet started. Although the anticipated lean-season response scale-up is underway and most districts have completed beneficiary registration, food distributions have only occurred once. A mid-January FEWS NET field assessment found that several southern districts, including Neno and Mwanza, received only the November distribution, with December deliveries still pending. Assistance in other districts, like Thyolo and Nsanje, has not yet begun, resulting in delays of up to two months.
Read the full analysis
More analysis reports View all Malawi food security analysis reports Monthly analysis
Food Security Outlook Update Malawi December 2025 - May 2026
Key Message Update Malawi November 2025 - May 2026
Food Security Outlook Malawi October 2025 - May 2026
Alerts / special reports
Special Report Global June 23, 2025
Special Report Global May 1, 2025
Monthly analysis
Food Security Outlook Update Malawi December 2025 - May 2026
Key Message Update Malawi November 2025 - May 2026
Food Security Outlook Malawi October 2025 - May 2026
Alerts / special reports
Special Report Global June 23, 2025
Special Report Global May 1, 2025
Explore food security analysis data
Description

The FEWS NET Data Explorer hosts the widest range of FEWS NET data for download or extract via API. The Data Explorer requires a free user account for access.

FEWS NET–style food security map of East Africa showing crisis severity by color, with conflict icons and alerts across Somalia, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya.
Acute Food Insecurity Area-Level Classifications

FEWS NET produces IPC-compatible area-level acute food insecurity classifications monthly for FEWS NET reporting countries. This data is available as spatial files, tabular files, and map images. It is a key output of FEWS NET integrated food security analysis and is reported in our Food Security Outlooks and Outlook Updates (FSO/U) and Key Message Updates (KMU).

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Map of East Africa with large colored circles over Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, and South Sudan indicating comparative regional metrics; capitals labeled.
Acutely Food Insecure Population Estimates

These estimates reflect the total population estimated to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity outcomes, including those who are receiving humanitarian food assistance and those who are not. This tabular data is a key output of FEWS NET integrated food security analysis and is reported in our FSOs, global Food Assistance Outlook Briefs (FAOB), and semi-annual global Peak Food Assistance Needs Outlook Briefs.

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Markets and trade resources
Description

Access FEWS NET’s market price data and analysis, plus trade flow maps.

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Monthly Global Price Watch reports

This report provides the latest outlook on global, regional, and national market trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET reporting countries and also analyzes the various drivers influencing these trends.

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Production and Trade Flow Maps

These maps display the geography of market systems and trade flow patterns for key products, including their key market towns and cross-border trade points.

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Price data

Price data is available for a large number of countries and products around the world. This data can be used to track the change in price of commodities, food staples, agricultural inputs, and other products over time and is a key input to FEWS NET food security analysis and Global Price Watch reports.

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Agroclimatology resources
Description

Access FEWS NET’s remote sensing data and analysis of weather conditions.

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Weekly Global Weather Hazards reports

This report provides a global outlook on anticipated severe weather events, including maps with current weather information, short and medium range weather forecasts (up to one week), and the potential impact on crop and pasture conditions.

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Seasonal Monitor reports

This report provides regional updates on weather events, rainfall patterns, and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, water availability) during a given geography’s rainy season, along with a short-term rainfall forecast.

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Agroclimatology data

FEWS NET and its partners offer a range of online tools that share insights on rainfall, temperature, vegetation, soil moisture, and surface water conditions derived from remote sensing data collection and modeling.

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Livelihoods resources
Description

Access FEWS NET’s maps, reports, and data on local livelihood systems.

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Malawi 2015 Livelihood Zones Map (.PNG)
Livelihood Baselines

Baselines provide quantitative analysis of household livelihood options. It includes a detailed breakdown of food, cash, and expenditure patterns. The Baseline also highlights market patterns, seasonality, and coping strategies. 

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Livelihood Zone maps

Zone Maps illustrate the country by zone, showing areas where people generally have the same options for obtaining food and income and engaging in trade.

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Seasonal Calendar
Description

These calendars illustrate the monthly availability of key food and income sources, plus the starts and ends to key rainy and lean seasons. They supplement livelihoods resources and are integral to FEWS NET’s food security analysis.

View and download the Malawi Seasonal Calendar
Seasonal Calendar image showing harvest and rainy periods for Malawi
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