Stressed food insecurity expected starting in October due to above-average food prices, debt

• Near-average national rice production this year, along with a near-average March/April 2014 maize/legume harvest is expected to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity in northern and central Madagascar through March 2015.

• In areas of the south and southwest that faced multiple shocks in 2013, high staple food prices and above-average debt levels are likely to lead to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity among poor households starting in October and lasting through March 2015.

• Forecasts for normal to below-normal rainfall in central and northern Madagascar between October and December 2014 during the start of the rainy season may affect local production and associated labor activities.

The key areas of concern in Madagascar remain select districts in Atsimo Andrefana, and Androy Regions of the south and southwest, including Ampanihy, Betiocky, Tsihombe, Beloha, and Bekily, due to the longer-term effects of negative strategies, such as higher-than-usual borrowing, employed to cope with the multiple shocks (abnormal dryness, Cyclone Haruna, and locust infestations) that occurred over the course of 2013. The WFP/FAO Crop and Food Security Assessment indicates that 2013/14 crop production was slightly below average, -9 percent for rice, -4 percent for maize, and -6 percent for cassava compared to the five-year average. These near-average production levels suggest agricultural labor income levels during the 2013/14 season were also near the five-year average, supporting the typical livelihoods strategies for poor and very poor rural households.

Treatment efforts for the second year of FAO/Ministry of Agriculture’s anti-locust campaign largely got underway on October 9. Despite the on-time start of treatment, FAO reports a $10 million (USD) funding gap for this second year of the campaign may halt treatment as early as February. This would significantly threaten the ability for this year’s campaign to meet its goals of reducing the locust population back to its endemic (pre-2013) levels.

Forecasts suggest approximately a 60 percent likelihood for an El Niño to develop and last through at least December. However, historical rainfall information provides no clear indication of the impact of El Niño events in Madagascar. Based on recently released SARCOF forecasts, FEWS NET assumes rainfall for northern and central Madagascar will be normal to below-normal between October and December 2014 during the start of the rainy season. Given the high rainfall totals typical for these areas, FEWS NET assumes total rainfall will be sufficient to support cropping activities, though the timing and distribution of rains could affect local production and associated labor opportunities. Normal to above-normal rainfall is expected to support normal cropping activities in southern Madagascar, supporting prospects of a timely end to the lean season in March 2015.

Districts of concern in Atsimo Andrefana and Androy Regions

With increased food availability from recent cassava harvests, as well as the March-May maize/legume harvest that normally marks the end of the lean season in the south, most households in the southern areas of concern are able to satisfy their basic food and non-food needs, and are currently facing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.

December typically marks the start of the lean season in the south. However, as many poor households borrowed more than usual during the 2013/14 lean season, these households were required to pay back loans with the beginning of the cassava harvest in August, prior to paying other expenses such as school fees. Prices for dried cassava, a key staple in these areas, have continued to fall from their May 2014 peak to near their prior-year levels, but remain as much as 60 percent higher than at the same time last year in key southern markets. Moreover, households are facing seasonal price increases for maize (for instance, a 12 percent increase in Ambaosary between August and September 2014). Together, these factors are contributing to a start to the lean season in October, two months earlier than usual. As a result, poor households may face livelihood protection deficits and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity from October to December 2014. Despite these challenges, cassava prices declined more quickly than expected between May and August 2014, and in the absence of any major shocks, a further deterioration of food security is not expected for the remainder of the lean season. As a result, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity is expected to continue through March 2015, when cereal and legume harvests should bring the lean season to a timely end.