Harvests, though delayed, to improve food access starting in April

• A delayed start to the 2014/15 rainy season will likely result in harvests delayed by up to one month, likely extending the lean season through March in much of southwestern Madagascar. Select districts in Anosy, Androy, and Atsimo Andrefana are currently in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), although some households in these regions are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

• The onset of maize harvests in April will increase staple food availability and reduce prices for maize on key markets, improving household food access. The southwestern areas of concern will likely face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes between April and June 2015. 

• Poorly distributed rainfall, the need to replant, and limited access to inputs may result in below-average crop production in the southwest, which could limit households’ ability to meet their livelihood needs later in the year. 

March normally marks the start of the lean season in northern and central Madagascar, with the main rice harvest putting an end to the lean season in May. Near-average 2014 rice production and associated labor opportunities, stable rice prices and imports, and the absence of major shocks affecting major food and income sources are resulting in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity across much of Madagascar during the lean season, except in the south/southwestern regions of Androy, Atsimo Andrefana, and Anosy. Despite well above-average rainfall and the passage of Cyclone Chedza causing flooding in some rice-producing areas (less than 2 percent of rice-cropping areas) and parts of Antananarivo, production prospects generally appear near average across most of Madagascar. According to SADC forecasts, March-April-May rainfall is expected to be average to above average across Madagascar. Following the halt in the FAO/Ministry of Agriculture’s locust-treatment campaign at the end of February, locusts could cause localized crop damage should populations increase significantly, though field reports suggest the current population remains below last year’s levels. Given these factors, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) is expected in most of Madagascar through June 2015.

Staple food access remains limited for poor households in parts of Anosy, Androy, and Atsimo Andrefana during the peak of the lean season. Prices for maize and cassava (the main staples) rose unseasonably early in 2014 and continue to be well above average, while starting in August some households were forced to repay above-average loans incurred during the peak of the 2013/14 lean season. The late start and poor distribution of rainfall in southern Madagascar has also likely reduced labor opportunities for poor households and is expected to delay harvests by about one month.

In order to compensate, some poor households are engaging atypical coping strategies in order to avoid food consumption gaps between now and the end of the lean season. Field reports suggest that poor households are generally reducing food consumption, eating unripe wild fruit (cactus pear and tamarind), and selling more livestock than usual. As evidence of increased livestock sales, field visits suggest that the typical price of a goat in Betiocky and Ampanihy in February is usually around 40,000, whereas in February 2015 it was between 15,000 and 20,000 Ar. Households also report a significant and atypical increase in migration for labor. Food assistance in these areas is currently limited to school feeding programs. There are likely many poor households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), although the number is likely below 20 percent of the total population for these areas. As a result, Anosy, Androy, and Atsimo Andrefana are currently in Stressed (IPC Phase 2).

Field reports suggest that cropped area in 2014/15 may be below average in southern areas, due to a combination of a lack of seeds, poor seasonal performance (late start-of-season and poorly distributed rainfall) that may have required several rounds of planting, and labor migration to other areas of the country. Crop prospects are mixed and interviews with local households suggest crop production will likely be below average in the south, but maize harvests will likely occur in mid-April and result in a substantial drop in maize prices, putting an end to the lean season. Poor households will likely face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) between May and June 2015. However, given the potential for below-average crop production, incomes, and negative coping strategies employed during the lean season, poor households may face an early start to the lean season later in the consumption year.