Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes likely in southern districts as lean season approaches

• In Androy, Atsimo Andrefana and parts of Anosy Regions, staple food production is estimated to be significantly below average. An early exhaustion of food stocks, reduced coping capacity from the previous lean season, and unusually high staple food prices are likely to result in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes starting from August and September 2015.

• Where maize production was extremely low (Tsihombe and Ambovombe Districts), poor households are currently in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), and but will likely deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as soon as August. 

• Based on information collected from local agricultural services, prices of staple foods such as maize remains significantly above average in the southern markets of Amboasary and Ambovombe. Despite decreases in cassava prices likely due to earlier than usual harvests, poor households’ purchasing power is likely to be below average as food stocks are exhausted and households become market dependent as the lean season approaches. 

While the national supply of rice is expected to be normal, maize and cassava production are estimated by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock to be below the five-year average, with significantly below-average production expected in far southern areas of the country for the third consecutive year. Although most areas of the country is expected to face Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity through December 2015, below-average crop production is likely to lead to an early exhaustion of food stocks and early increases in staple food prices in Menabe, Ihorombe, Atsimo Andrefana, Androy, and small parts of Anosy Regions, with the latter three being the areas of greatest concern. The lean season that usually starts in December is expected to be early in those affected areas, and in some districts to start as early as the end of August, and will last through the outlook period.

Since April 2012, a migratory locust plague has also threatened local agricultural production in the country. A three-year program reduced the area of locust infestation, despite a funding gap that decreased the intensity of survey and control. However, some locust swarms are still being reported in various parts of the country. Although temperatures are still low in the Hautes-Terres and rains are generally insufficient to be suitable to the locust development, FEWS NET will continue monitoring the situation as conditions for locust reproduction improve starting in October.

Southern districts of concern in Atsimo Andrefana and Androy Regions (Livelihood Zones 23, 24, and parts of 22)

Following a harsher and longer-than-usual lean season during which many households engaged in negative coping strategies indicative of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, and some indications of increased acute malnutrition in some districts, July is typically characterized by increased household food access following harvests of rice and maize in April and May and off-season crops. However, production of maize was well below average in those areas of the south, and own production is already being exhausted several months early in some areas. Cassava is currently being harvested, earlier than usual (up to two months earlier in Ambovombe). This is likely to lead to an earlier than normal exhaustion of cassava at the household level, as well as a lower volume of production as tubers have not grown to their normal sizes. Although anecdotal reports suggest cassava production is above normal in the northern part of Livelihood Zone 24 (northern Androy), production estimates suggest production could be as much as 50 percent below average in some areas. Off-season production of onions, beans, sweet potatoes, and green vegetables is reportedly better than the last two years, which will temporarily improve access to food and income, but is unlikely to significantly improve access for very poor households whose main season harvests were below average and whose ability to access inputs is likely very limited.  

Price information collected locally by the Centres de Services Agricoles show that the decline in grain price of the previous months has stopped and the current prices are higher than normal: maize prices in Amboasary and Ambovombe remain extremely high compared to the two-year average, and are higher than last year at this time, although rice is only about 14 percent higher than the five-year average districts and cassava is – because of the earlier harvest – about 30 percent cheaper. On the markets of the area of concern, it is likely that prices will remain above average and increase before peaking in January/February 2016.

As food stocks are depleted earlier than normal, poor households will start accessing staple foods on markets for longer than usual and will do so at well above-average prices. This will limit households’ ability to meet their livelihoods protection needs, in particular considering that many livelihood strategies, such as sales of livestock and other assets, remain limited due to the asset depletion from consecutively bad years. Local informants expect very poor households in the area of concern to engage in atypical and unsustainable coping strategies, such as asset stripping, in order to try to meet food consumption needs. It is likely that at least 20 percent of households in Tsihombe  and Ambovombe will enter Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as soon as August. In other parts of livelihood zones 22, 23, 24, poor households are expected to start facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in August, but likely to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) starting from November through the outlook period, due to the combination of lack of labor opportunities, of own-produced food stocks, and a reduced ability to engage in coping strategies.