Crop development is behind schedule in southern districts due to a poor start of the rains

While the rainy season started on time in the central and northern parts of the country, a poor start of season and prolonged dry spells in the south resulted in replanting activities and a smaller than normal area cropped under maize this season. Due to this poor start, crop development is currently behind schedule and harvests will likely be late, prolonging the lean season to April 2016.  

Recent seasonal forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and the UK Met Office suggest an increased probability of below-average to average rainfall over southern Madagascar during the February to April 2016 period due to the impacts of El Niño. If below-average rainfall were to occur, it would likely have negative impacts on crop yields in these areas. Therefore, rainfall levels and seasonal progress over the next couple of months need to be closely monitored.    

A third consecutive year of below-average staple food production during the previous 2015 agricultural season in Androy, Atsimo Andrefana and parts of Anosy Regions led to an early depletion of household food stocks, above-average staple food prices, and a deterioration of poor households’ livelihoods. While many households are currently attempting to cope by engaging in atypical coping strategies, such as migration and the earlier than normal sale of unripe cactus peas, food consumption levels amongst the poor have deteriorated and these households will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity until the end of the 2015/16 lean season.  

For more detailed analysis, see the Remote Monitoring Update for December 2015.