Crisis outcomes expected by October in southern areas as food stocks deplete

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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected across much of the Grand South from October through at least January 2026. As of September, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are widespread across the Grand South, coinciding with the final month of the root and tuber harvest. Many poor households have not recovered from successive years of weather shocks and had to sell a large portion of their harvests to service debts, limiting improvements in food consumption typically expected after a near-average root and tuber season. As soon as October, poor households most impacted by past weather shocks are expected to deplete their limited food stocks. Seasonally rising food prices will further constrain food access. Many poor households are expected to intensify activities such as firewood sales and petty trade to afford food purchases, however, heightened competition will limit this income, and households will increasingly struggle to meet their food needs.
In the Grand Southeast, most households will likely maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through December, though Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge in some remote areas. Seasonally increased demand for agricultural labor during the harvest of cash crops and the planting of main season rice will enable most households to meet their food needs until the start of the off-season rice harvest in December. However, agricultural wages are declining due to below-average global prices for cash crops, and transportation costs are rising, which will limit typical seasonal migration and reduce this key income source for poor households in the region. A deterioration to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected in the most remote areas, where employment opportunities and wages are relatively lower, and seasonal increases in food prices are significantly higher due to poor access conditions exacerbated by the rainy season.
At this time of year, markets remain well supplied with cassava and sweet potatoes and prices remain largely stable and seasonally low. For local rice, recent price increases are generally in line with seasonal trends and similar to last year, with some geographic variation. However, maize and bean prices are generally above-average and seasonally rising due to below-average supply, negatively impacting household food access.
With the approach of the rainy season and favorable international forecasts for average rainfall, households in the Grand South are slowly preparing for cassava, maize, and bean cropping. Although not yet widespread, some households have begun purchasing agricultural inputs and preparing land for cultivation. may struggle to access sufficient planting materials (seeds and cassava stalks) due to below-average incomes and carry-over stocks. In the Grand Southeast, the rainy season starts relatively earlier in September, facilitating the ongoing cultivation of off-season rice and various cash crops. Though rainfall received in September was below-average according to preliminary estimates, it is very early in the season, and rains are still becoming established.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Madagascar Key Message Update September 2025: Crisis outcomes expected by October in southern areas as food stocks deplete, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.