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Ongoing food assistance preventing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in southern Madagascar

  • Key Message Update
  • Madagascar
  • September 2023
Ongoing food assistance preventing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in southern Madagascar

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Most households in the Grand South and Grand Southeast still have access to their cassava and sweet potato stocks and are expected to maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through September. While harvests have improved compared to the last several years, non-food expenses such as school fees, medicine, funerary duties, and loan repayments weigh heavily on household finances. Once root and tuber stocks are exhausted between October and November, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will likely emerge in the absence of humanitarian assistance. Worst-off households with poor root and tuber harvests, below-average incomes, and the least market access are likely already experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely struggling to purchase enough food to meet their minimum kilocalorie needs amid seasonally increasing food prices.
    • Significant ongoing humanitarian assistance in the Grand South and Grand Southeast is expected to mitigate worse outcomes through September, with Befotaka, Midongy-du-Sud, and Ikongo currently assessed as Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) with area-level outcomes in Betroka expected to be Minimal! (IPC Phase 1!). Households in these regions are likely meeting at least 50 percent of their kilocalorie needs through humanitarian food assistance. No significant assistance is currently planned for the Grand Southeast after September. Between October and December, HFA is expected to maintain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in Ampanihy, Beloha, and Tshiombe in the Grand South. 
    • A strong El Niño is now ongoing and is expected to lead to below-average and erratic rainfall in southern Madagascar. Additionally, the onset of the main rainy season will likely be delayed. These anticipated rainfall shocks are expected to compound the impacts of poor access to agricultural inputs in planted area, negatively impacting households that rely on casual agricultural labor opportunities. Close monitoring of rainfall totals and distribution will be required to assess the severity of adverse impacts on cropping conditions for the 2023/24 harvest. There is particular concern for areas in the Grand South that experienced significant crop losses due to dry spells in 2023 and cyclones in 2022 and 2023. Government and donors should prepare now for rising food assistance needs in 2024. Water management and agricultural resilience interventions are needed to decrease households’ vulnerability to future adverse rainfall shocks.  

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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