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Outcomes likely to deteriorate with the progression of the lean season if assistance does not continue

  • Key Message Update
  • Madagascar
  • September 2022
Outcomes likely to deteriorate with the progression of the lean season if assistance does not continue

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Ongoing humanitarian food assistance in parts of Southern Madagascar is mitigating worse outcomes in those areas, resulting in Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes through October. However, households continue to face significant limitations in access to food in the absence of any meaningful cassava and sweet potato harvests, rising food prices, and well below-average income-generating opportunities. In worst affected areas, any reduction of humanitarian food assistance or breakdown of delivery will likely result in the deterioration of outcomes to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) for the remainder of the lean season.

    • Along Eastern Madagascar, which was affected by the above-average 2022 cyclone season, households are expected to slowly recover, especially with the ongoing cassava and upcoming rice harvests. However, these areas are still likely to experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes throughout the outlook period, while pockets of households will likely continue in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), due to crop and infrastructure losses. In the rest of the country, near-average production and near-normal incomes will continue to drive Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through January 2023.

    • Food prices continue to increase in key reference markets, with poor root and tuber production driving many increases. In August in the Ampanihy market, dried cassava prices increased by 8 percent month-on-month and remained above last year and the five-year average by 42 percent and 67 percent, respectively. In Antananarivo in September, sweet potato prices increased by 11.6 percent month-on-month and 80.5 year-on-year, while dried cassava increased by 12.5 percent month-on-month and 148 percent year-on-year. Maize prices there also increased in September by 8.8 percent from the previous month; however, prices of imported rice have been stable monthly thanks to price ceilings imposed by the government,

    • Climate forecasts are currently calling for a slow start to the rainy season in the Grand South, followed by average rainfall for the remainder of the main agricultural season. While this is expected to improve labor opportunities over last year, better-off households who normally hire agricultural labor have suffered a significant reduction in their ability to do so due to deteriorating terms of trade and livestock prices given multiple consecutive years of drought. Meanwhile, poorer households in the Grand South are likely to have very little seed leftover from previous below-average seasons and will continue to face significant financial challenges in accessing seed on the market.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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