Key Message Update

Household staple food stocks start to deplete in southern Madagascar

September 2020

September 2020

October 2020 - January 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The lean season is approaching, and the consumption of tubers has seasonally increased, especially in southern Madagascar, given their relative affordability compared to rice.

  • In August 2020, large-scale in-kind assistance was distributed in response to COVID-19 in main affected cities, including Antananarivo, Toamasina, and Fianarantsoa. The distributions helped ease localized staple food price increases of 5 and 10 percent. However, in Tulear, where cash assistance was distributed rather than in-kind assistance, imported rice prices increased to around 30 percent above the five-year average, likely due to increased effective demand.

  • There are 16,377 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Madagascar as of the end of September and 49 new cases have been confirmed on average per day since early September. All of the regions are now affected, with most cases found in Analamanga, Atsinanana, Alaotra Mangoro, and Diana regions. Movement restrictions and curfews have been lifted across the country except for Diana region, where the number of new cases is increasing at a relatively higher rate.

  • In the south, movement restrictions for both goods and people have been eased. As a result, people who had previously migrated to the capital and the west for income-earning opportunities and were stranded, are now returning to their areas of origin. A significant portion of poor and very poor southern households, however, are beginning to have difficulty acquiring sufficient food to meet their basic needs due to seasonal stock depletion coupled with below-average labor opportunities and increased transport costs.

  • Most poor households in the south (MG23, MG24, and MG26) will likely experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes starting in October as their staple food stocks from own production deplete and income earnings remain below normal. With restrictions lifted in the three previously locked down cities of Antananarivo, Fianarantsoa, and Toamasina, acute food security outcomes are Minimal (IPC Phase 1) but some pockets remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) due to lower income sources opportunities. Elsewhere, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to prevail, though some households who depend on tourism and producers who are affected by low farm-gate prices are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics