Madagascar
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- As of November, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely across most of the Grand South and remote areas of the Grand Southeast due to the lingering impacts of past weather shocks. Due to previous below average harvests, most households have exhausted their food reserves atypically early and are increasingly market dependent for food access amid increasing prices and below-average income. Households are purchasing food on credit, reducing expenditure on health and education, and reducing meal portions. As the lean season progresses, an increasing share of the population is expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Around 1.5-1.99 million people in southern Madagascar will be in need of humanitarian food assistance during the peak of the lean season between February and March 2026.
- The start of the cyclone season in November and recent sociopolitical instability threaten food security and need close monitoring. The September regime change and October’s transitional government have created uncertainty. January is a critical point to assess governance, market, and trade outcomes. Simultaneously, the tropical cyclone season is forecasted to be atypically active. Eastern and southeastern regions face heightened wind and flood risks, while western and northwestern areas remain prone to flooding. Such events could damage infrastructure, disrupt planting schedules, devastate standing crops, and compromise anticipated improvements in food availability.
- Seasonal rice transplanting began in November following substantial rainfall. Cassava planting has progressed well in the southern regions, supported by early favorable rainfall and moisture. The forecasted average rainfall should support maize planting through January. The coastal east and southeast face challenges from flooding and cyclone-related rains, which could impact crop stability from the second half of December onwards. The Grand Southeast will benefit from off-season rice towards the end of the year (although in very limited quantities), as well as cash crop harvests. The Grand South lacks these income sources and will depend on wild foods like cactus fruit. Consecutive poor harvests across the southern regions have weakened hiring capacity and labor demand, sustaining atypically low wages amid excess supply. To compensate, some better-off households are sending family members to temporarily migrate to more productive areas and eastern mining zones; however, high transport costs and deteriorating road infrastructure restrict poor households from accessing these more lucrative labor opportunities.
- Local rice prices in November ranged between 3,200 and 4,000 MGA/kilogram (kg), up 15 percent from September but near last year’s levels. Imported rice prices remained stable at 2,600-3,000 MGA/kg, providing a cheaper alternative. Dried cassava supplies and prices are stable in accessible Grand South markets (Toliara, Ampanihy-Betioky, Tsihombe-Beloha, Androy, Amboasary) but have risen sharply in the Southeast due to scarcity. Inflation fell from 9.5 percent in January to 7.5 percent in September, driven by lower energy and non-food prices. While the slight reduction in inflation offers some relief to household purchasing power, high food prices continue to constrain purchasing power and drive consumption gaps.
- The 2025/26 vanilla export season is underway, following its official launch by the Ministry of Trade and Consumer Affairs. The 4 USD/kg export levy has been abolished, and U.S. tariffs have been removed, restoring duty free access. These policy changes aim to stabilize export levels and prices; however, high global carry-over stocks continue to place downward pressure on prices and negatively impact households whose livelihoods heavily depend on cash crop production.
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Madagascar Key Message Update November 2025: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions expand despite favorable rainfall, 2025.
This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.