Key Message Update

Stable prices are maintaining stable food access compared to recent months

November 2019

November 2019 - January 2020

Map of Projected food security outcomes, October 2019 to January 2020: Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in most of the country, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in the far south: parts of Atsimo Andrefana, Androy, and Anosy; Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in Androy, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the south of Atsimo-Andrefana

February - May 2020

Map of Projected food security outcomes, February to May 2020: Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in most of the country, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in the far south: parts of Atsimo Andrefana, Androy, and Anosy; Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in Androy, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the south of Atsimo-Andrefana

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The rainy season has continued normally in the central highlands, allowing farmers to transplant water-fed rice and to sow upland rice, maize and pulses. Cropped area has increased in Vakinakaratra region and some maize crops are already ready to be harvested, with yields similar to last year. Rains are ongoing in the South but are cumulatively slightly below average, though enough to maintain normal development of cassava and maize crops.

  • Staple food access has remained stable in most of Madagascar in recent months, which has been positive for poor household foods both in rural and urban areas, except in Vangaindrano where prices are increasing atypically. Overall, rice and tuber prices are near to below last year’s prices because of increased household and market stocks at the end of the post-harvest period following a generally good harvest. Their prices are also average to below average in most markets, except in main cities throughout the country andin Ampanihy and in Vangaindrano. Maize prices remain higher than last year and the 5-year average, except in Tsihombe, Beloha, Antsirabe and Morondava where prices are 10 to 30 percent below average. No maize sales are currently reported in Ambovombe.

  • Cattle herd sizes havestabilized andno excessive sales have been reported. Livestock are generally in good health with normal body conditions due to the availability of green pastureland. On average at end November, cattle are being sold at 700,000 MGA per head in Betioky, which shows an unexpected increase of 25 percent compared to September. Meanwhile, prices of small ruminants, which poor households will likely sell first when their food stocks are depleted stabilized at 55,000 MGA for a goat and 60,000 MGA for a sheep.

  • Supplies of certain necessities such as fuel, electricity and drinking water were interrupted in Antananarivo, and subsequently other provinces at the beginning of November creating panic and discontent among consumers. It did not affect prices, but the State has planned to directly import necessities such as rice, oil, flour and fuel through a company called State Procurement of Madagascar, which is a public limited company. The objective of this initiative is to stop the price fluctuation and speculation of some importers. The first imports are expected by the end of 2019.

  • Most poor and very poor households in Androy Semi-Arid Cassava, Maize and Livestock (MG 24) and in Mahafaly Plain: Cassava, Goats and Cattle (MG 23) will remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), except in Ampanihy where very poor and poor households remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) because they have not yet recovered from the previous poor season.. Increasing food prices in Vangaindrano havehad a significant impact on food access for poor households who are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) as a result. Other households throughout Madagascar remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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