The failure of main season crops results in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity in parts of the South

The failure of main season crops has been observed across the districts of Amboasary, Ambovombe, Tsihombe, and Beloha. Significantly below-average, off-season crops are also expected in these areas. As a result, household food stocks are already nearly depleted, despite it being the post-harvest period, and income levels from agricultural product sales are atypically low. In these areas, poor households are struggling to cover food and non-food expenditures and will face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through the outlook period.

In Ampanihy, livestock herd sizes are generally larger than in the Androy region. Although distressed sales over past two years have reduced the number of animals owned by poor households in this region, animal sales will still partially mitigate the impacts of this year’s drought on household food consumption. As a result, poor households in Ampanihy will face slightly better outcomes, in line with Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity through September.

Although markets in the South are usually supplies with local maize during the post-harvest period, maize supplies are currently coming from outside the drought-affected areas due to the local crop failure. Moreover, while maize prices typically decline during the harvest period, prices increases have been observed this year. For example, in Tsihombe, April maize prices increased by 23 percent compared to January 2016 and were 128 percent above April 2014 levels. These high prices are further limiting food access for poor, market-dependent households. 

Outside of drought-affected areas of the South and West, near-average 2016 harvests and normal levels of farm and off-labor incomes are helping to ensure seasonally normal food consumption for poor households. Consequently, most other areas of the country are currently in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.