Post cyclone recovery and extreme dryness drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes

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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes persist across much of the Grand South, remote areas of the Grand Southeast, and cyclone-affected eastern districts. Poor households exhausted their food stocks atypically early and face consumption gaps as they depend on market purchases to cover food needs. Households increasingly rely on negative coping strategies, including consumption of dangerous wild foods, sales of productive assets, and debt. In cyclone‑affected eastern areas, livelihood recovery remains slow due to displacement, high shelter repair costs, and damage to rice fields and aquaculture.
Between June and September, outcomes are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in the Grand South and Southeast with the arrival of the main harvests. Similar improvements are expected among cyclone-affected households in eastern areas through September as they gradually replant and rebuild productive assets. However, pockets of poor households most impacted by past weather shocks, such as droughts and cyclones, will likely continue to face difficulty meeting essential food and non-food needs as they service debts taken on during the lean season.
Cumulative rainfall deficits were observed across much of southern and western Madagascar in February and March, despite average rainfall in January. This will likely result in below-average national production of staple foods such as rice, maize, and cassava during the main harvests between March and June. Cumulative rainfall deficits of between 25 and 80 percent of the 40-year average are expected across most areas, except in the north. Combined with erratic rainfall distribution, forecasts indicate below-average to average rainfall across most of the country. Atypically dry conditions are likely to persist through September.
The conflict in the Middle East has had limited effects on prices in Madagascar thus far. Fuel prices declined by 200 MGA per liter in March, reflecting historical supply arrangements with Oman and fuel orders secured before the escalation of regional tensions. Strategic fuel reserves have further helped prevent supply disruptions. However, deliveries scheduled for next month may face upward pressure from higher international prices. Although recent delivery delays have triggered consumer panic, no shortages have been observed to date. Food prices remain largely unaffected; however, increased fuel prices would drive higher domestic transport costs that would place upward pressure on food prices in the medium term.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Madagascar Key Message Update March - September 2026: Post cyclone recovery and extreme dryness drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, 2026.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.