Early consumption of green harvests gradually improving access to food, but will likely contribute to reduced maize yields across the Grand South

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In March, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are continuing across much of the Grand South despite a reduction in consumption gaps as households increase their consumption of green maize as well as some watermelon and pumpkin harvests. Green harvests contribute to alleviating the burden of high staple food prices on the market; however, most households will continue to rely on market purchases for most of their food needs until the main harvest begins next month, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes will likely remain in Betroka, Beloha, Tsihombe, as well as in some parts of Amboasary, Bekily, and Ampanihy districts through April due to the significant ongoing humanitarian food and cash assistance. Erratic rainfall, limited access to seed, and the early consumption of green harvests are all likely to contribute to below-average production for very poor households. Still, yields are expected to be sufficient to maintain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes between April and September.
In the Grand Southeast, off-season rice and short-cycle cassava harvests, as well as the availability of local wild fruits, are enabling most poorer households to meet their basic food needs. However, most are struggling to meet their non-food needs given the continuation of atypically high prices, exacerbated by the seasonal deterioration of road conditions to transport food to markets, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in these areas throughout the outlook period. On the other hand, remote and largely inaccessible communes – particularly in the districts of Befotaka, Ikongo, and Nosy Varika will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until the next main harvest in May as many roads remain in very poor condition following cyclones in recent years, leading to irregular market supply and intermittent price shocks.
The rainy season is now coming to an end across Madagascar, with mixed results. Across the Grand South and in parts of the Grand Southeast, rainfall was erratic with below-average cumulative rainfall in localized areas. Poor rainfall performance was exacerbated by typical seasonal hazards, including sand dunes driven by the Tiomena winds, armyworms and locusts, and heavy rain events. However, in most maize-growing areas, the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI) indicated at least mediocre conditions for maize, and field reports confirmed improvements in expected harvests compared to recent drought years despite remaining below average. Above-average temperatures are expected in the coming months, driving poor soil moisture forecasts, which are expected to negatively impact root and tuber harvests in the Grand South and Grand Southeast, which will likely be somewhat below average. On March 27, Tropical Storm Gamane made landfall in Sava region in northern Madagascar, causing flooding and localized displacement as information on damages are still being collected.
With the upcoming main harvest, prices of staple foods, including dried cassava, sweet potatoes, and domestic rice and breadfruit (in the Grand Southeast) are expected to seasonally decline, improving household purchasing power during the coming months. Although prices are down compared to 2022 given drought recovery – for example, dried cassava prices in Toliara in February were 17 percent less than the two-year average – they remain well above pre-drought levels. Meanwhile, although rates of increases for prices of domestic rice have decreased over the past two years, imported rice prices have increased substantially as the volume of imported rice dropped by around 43 percent compared to last year due to export regulations in India, Madagascar’s main source of imported rice. In February, imported rice prices had increased 24.2 percent year-on-year and 37 percent compared to the two-year average in Toliara, while domestic rice prices have remained stable year-on-year and have risen only 13.7 percent compared to the two-year average. Although poorer households typically prefer maize and root and tuber crops in the Grand South and rice in the Grand Southeast, all poorer households will increase and/or substitute cassava or sweet potato when rice prices rise significantly.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Madagascar Key Message Update March 2024: Early consumption of green harvests gradually improving access to food, but will likely contribute to reduced maize yields across the Grand South, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.