Green harvests begin to alleviate food insecurity despite the return of Freddy

• In March, green harvests for maize in the Grand South are beginning to reduce food consumption gaps, especially in areas that planted early given positive rainfall forecasts for the 2022/23 season. However, these improvements will be gradual, and most households remain reliant on humanitarian food assistance to mitigate worse outcomes, resulting in widespread Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) and Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) outcomes. In the Grand Southeast, post-cyclone assistance is also supporting mostly Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes until the main rice harvest becomes available. Broad improvements from May or June are most likely, although worst-affected households will only marginally benefit from below-average harvests, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge in scattered areas of the Grand Southwest and Grand Southeast after assistance ends and food stocks diminish.

• Tropical Cyclone Freddy, which traversed southeastern Madagascar in late February, shifted directions and returned to the southwestern coast of the island March 4 – 7, bringing with it strong rains and winds. Flooding and damage to infrastructure and crops have been reported across Tulear, Morombe, and Morondava districts. The National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) estimates that more than 70,000 people were affected, with 24,000 temporarily displaced and around 12,000 houses damaged. Meanwhile, FAO’s assessment of the initial passage of Freddy concluded that flooding covered more than 260,000 ha in late February. Of this area, some 60,000 ha of cropland – including for rice, coffee, litchi, and cassava – were likely impacted, concentrated mainly along the eastern coastline.

• High rainfall from tropical storms Cheneso and Freddy has contributed to flooding and high soil moisture and river levels across impacted areas. Although rainfall is expected to return to average levels in the Grand South, above-average rainfall forecasts for northern Madagascar increase the risk of continued flash flooding in these areas. In the aftermath of these storms, additional humanitarian assistance – mostly in the form of cash transfers – has been allocated in the Grand South and Grand Southeast, with a small number of beneficiaries also targeted in northern areas impacted by Cheneso. Recovery and rehabilitation activities are also underway to restore production flows and market supplies.

• Despite significant rainfall in late February and early March in the south and above-average rainfall forecasts for the north, it is unlikely for current crop conditions to improve in areas impacted by the dry spells in late 2022 and early 2023. Nevertheless, reports from key informants in the worst-affected areas of the Grand Southwest have reported that cases of permanent wilting and water stress were fewer than initially expected, marginally improving harvest expectations in these areas. Despite the recent weather hazards, households are beginning to access some maize for consumption throughout the Grand South, and the main harvest will begin by April.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Madagascar Key Message Update March 2023: Green harvests begin to alleviate food insecurity despite the return of Freddy, 2023.