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Drought conditions will drive poor crop production and an early 2016/17 lean season

  • Key Message Update
  • Madagascar
  • March 2016
Drought conditions will drive poor crop production and an early 2016/17 lean season

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • A delayed harvest and localized crop failures of maize have been recorded across some southern and southwestern counties due to an El Nino-related drought and poor spatial and temporal rainfall distribution. Significantly below-average off-season production of cassava is also expected. Worst-affected areas will include Tsihombe and coastal areas of Ampanihy.

    • Although in a typical year, early maize harvests would be improving food security outcomes at this time, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will continue in many southern areas, due to the delayed start of the harvests, reduced coping capacity of poor households after multiple consecutive years of below-average crop production, and localized crop failures.

    • The next lean season will likely start several months early in affected areas, and could begin as soon as August/September 2016. Beyond the scenario period and towards the peak of the next lean season (December 2016 to February 2017), food insecurity will likely escalate across drought-affected areas of southern Madagascar both in terms of severity of outcomes and the magnitude of the food insecure population.

    • Outside of the south, most areas are expected to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity due to normal livelihood activities. However, poor households in certain areas of Melaky and Menebe will likely have below-average harvests this year due to the drought and will begin to have difficulties affording both essential food and nonfood expenditures once their food stocks deplete earlier than usual. These households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between June and September.

    For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for February – September 2016.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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