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- Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge in Toliara II and Amboasary Atsimo in July as poor households exhaust food stocks atypically early following below-average production and become increasingly market dependent amid seasonal food price increases. From October 2026, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to expand across several areas of Atsimo-Andrefana and Androy and parts of Anosy as more households deplete their stocks and lack sufficient resources to meet their essential food and non-food needs.
- Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist through September throughout the rest of the Grand South. Cassava and sweet potato harvests, concentrated between July and August, will temporarily support household food consumption and income from crop sales. However, production is expected to be significantly below average due to forecast below-average and erratic rainfall, which will limit the magnitude and duration of improvements provided by the harvests.
- The ongoing El Niño event is likely to result in a delayed onset of the upcoming October rainy season, above-average temperatures, and below-average rainfall. These forecast weather shocks are expected to hinder the establishment of key staple crops such as rice, maize, and cassava in the Grand South and Grand South East. Below-average crop production will reduce demand for agricultural labor, keeping labor earnings 20 to 40 percent below average. Amid limited household food stocks and reduced purchasing power, poor households will face widening food consumption gaps during the lean season and increasingly rely on borrowing, asset sales, temporary migration, and consumption of wild foods.
- Food prices will likely face additional upward pressure from rising international fuel, freight, and import costs. Although domestic fuel prices have remained broadly stable under the government's price adjustment mechanism and emergency subsidies, higher costs for imported fuel and essential commodities, partly associated with renewed tensions in the Middle East, are likely to increase food prices over the outlook period. Government price stabilization measures are unlikely to fully offset these pressures, further eroding poor households’ purchasing power and intensifying the effects of the lean season, particularly in the Grand South.
Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Madagascar Mise à jour des messages clés Juillet 2026 - Janvier 2027: Une période de soudure précoce érodera les gains saisonniers limités dans le Grand Sud, 2026.
This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.