Near-average harvests benefiting households following active cyclone season

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In late 2024, FEWS NET projected Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through the peak of the lean season in February and March 2025. Outcomes were then expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) across the Grand South and Grand Southeast between April and May, following the green and main maize and main rice harvests. Most regions were expected to have near-average harvests, but in areas most affected by weather shocks during the previous 2023/24 agricultural season, below-average area planted and harvests were expected for some very poor households due to limited access to agricultural inputs. Several Grand South districts (Bekily, Beloha, and Tsihombe) were the areas of highest concern, as lower levels of humanitarian assistance were unlikely to mitigate worse outcomes during the peak of the lean season. FEWS NET estimated that 1.00-1.49 million people would require humanitarian assistance between October and May 2025.
From July to September 2025, main season harvests will improve household food access in the Grand South and Grand Southeast; however, households in the Grand South with limited harvests are expected to begin exhausting their food stocks atypically early in October. Despite below-average 2024/25 seasonal rainfall, harvests of rice, sweet potato, and cassava are expected to be near average; below-average maize and bean harvests are likely in the Grand South due to erratic rainfall and locust and fall armyworm infestations. Recent harvests are enabling households to meet their food needs through own production, crop sales, and agricultural labor. The onset of the main season rains in November/December will generate temporary labor opportunities for poor households in the Grand South during land preparation and cassava transplanting activities. In the Grand Southeast, off-season rice production and the associated December harvest are expected to temporarily improve household food consumption and agricultural labor incomes.
Multiple tropical cyclones and storms caused flooding and significant damage during the 2024/25 cyclone season, affecting over 276,000 people (including 57 deaths) across the country, and severely impacting housing and infrastructure (including roads, leading to market disruptions), according to an internal bulletin from the National Office for Disaster Risk Management (BNGRC). Severe Tropical Storm Jude (March 5-18) caused the most damage, impacting nearly 111,000 people in 24 districts across seven regions. Tropical Cyclone Honde (February 25-March 3) affected at least 102,000 people in 18 districts across five regions. Worst-affected areas included Beloha and Ambovombe-Androy (Androy Region), and Ampanihy Ouest, Toliara I, and Toliara II (Atsimo-Andrefana Region), particularly coastal areas. Heavy rains (February 14-19) also caused significant damage in several regions, including Antananarivo which experienced rapidly increasing river levels and flows (including Ikopa, Imamba, and Sisaony rivers) and flooding of over 4,000 houses, disrupting households’ access to their livelihoods.
International weather forecasts suggest a timely start to the rainy season in Madagascar. Rains are expected to arrive in the Grand Southeast in October, and between November and December across the Grand South, facilitating the beginning of main season planting activities. Precipitation between October and December is expected to be average to above-average, though uncertainty remains due to the long lead time of the forecast. Additionally, the tropical cyclone season officially begins in November, and a seasonally heightened risk of a cyclone strike, flooding, and damage to roads and newly planted crops will persist through December 2025.
Despite expectations for near-average to average cash crop production this season, income from associated labor opportunities is expected to be below average. Better-off households typically hire poorer households for temporary agricultural labor but have a reduced capacity to hire and pay for farm labor following multiple seasons of below-average production after successive severe cyclone strikes. Additionally, the deterioration in the price of green and processed vanilla will negatively impact farming households’ incomes. Labor demand for harvesting activities will seasonally peak between July and September (November/December for lychees). Labor demand for planting is expected to peak between October and December.
Acute malnutrition is expected to improve seasonally with the arrival of the main harvest, in line with historical trends. However, from October through December, malnutrition levels are expected to rise slightly as household stocks deplete, food consumption deteriorates, and food prices increase. An increase in waterborne diseases (particularly malaria and diarrhea) during the rainy season is also expected to contribute to malnutrition levels, alongside chronic, structural factors such as poor sanitation infrastructure and access to health services.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Madagascar Key Message Update July 2025: Near-average harvests benefiting households following active cyclone season, 2025.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.