Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes emerging in Betioky district following a poor harvest

• FEWS NET assesses that at least one in five households in the Betioky district of the Grand South are likely facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during the post-harvest period. New field information indicates that staple crop production in Betioky was below average due to significant fall armyworm infestations of maize fields and water management issues for rice production. Only able to access tuber harvests, which were average, households are likely beginning to face food consumption gaps before the lean season has even begun. Poor accessibility, low market access, and insecurity are exacerbating the impacts of poor harvests. As of July, no humanitarian assistance is ongoing or planned in the district. After several years of drought, households’ coping capacities are largely eroded. As such, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist throughout the lean season without humanitarian assistance. 
• In Amboasary and Ambovombe, harvested food stocks are depleting with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected to emerge prematurely before the start of the lean season, given erratic rainfall and pest infestations of crops. The rest of the Grand South remains Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the post-harvest period, with widespread area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes likely to emerge as the lean season progresses. Households will continue to have access to sweet potatoes and fresh cassava through August, and harvests were broadly average. Additionally, better-than-expected root and tuber harvests in Ampanihy are supporting Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. In the post-harvest period, households will likely sell some of this production to pay off debts accrued during the last several years of drought. They will likely have difficulties meeting their minimum kilocalorie needs.
• In the Grand Southeast, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are ongoing. By October, area-level Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge with the arrival of the lean season in regions with the least access to markets, including Ikongo, Befotaka, and Midongy du Sud. Across the Grand Southeast, cash crop production – a significant source of labor income for poor households – remains significantly below average due to cyclone-related damage, particularly for vanilla, coffee, pepper, cloves, and lychees. Once cassava, sweet potato, and yam harvests are completed at the end of August, households will be atypically reliant on purchasing food from the market. Amidst seasonally increasing food prices, declining food stocks, and decreased coping capacities, households will likely resort to increasingly unsustainable coping strategies to mitigate their consumption gaps until off-season rice is harvested in December. 
• Off-season cultivation begins in July with planting activities, providing temporary labor opportunities for poor households. However, the hiring capacity of better-off households is likely reduced in the Grand Southeast due to lower-than-normal liquidity following damage to cash crops during the past cyclone season. Average to above-average rainfall in July allowed for the timely planting of off-season rice in the Grand Southeast and central region, with harvests expected in December. Off-season legumes are also being planted in the central region and will supply markets across Madagascar between October and December. 

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Madagascar Key Message Update July 2023: Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes emerging in Betioky district following a poor harvest, 2023.