Erratic rains and flood risks likely to drive below-average harvests

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Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expanding across the Grand South and parts of the Grand Southeast as the lean season peaks, driven by seasonally high food prices, below-average incomes, and erratic weather shocks. As of January, poor households remain heavily market-dependent while staple food prices remain above average and income-earning opportunities are atypically low. Although humanitarian food assistance continues to be delivered across Anosy, Androy, Atsimo Andrefana, and Atsimo Atsinanana, WFP has only reached 85 percent of targeted communes and is reducing ration sizes due to pipeline breaks.
High staple food prices and limited access to agricultural inputs are constraining food access and recovery prospects for poor households in the South. Seasonally reduced availability of dried cassava has driven price increases during the lean season, while maize and local rice prices remain above their five-year averages. Poor households in southern Madagascar, whose diets rely heavily on dried cassava supplemented by wild foods, are increasingly substituting cheaper imported rice to meet minimum food needs. At the same time, limited access to cassava and sweet potato cuttings and the high cost of agricultural inputs are restricting area planted, which is likely to negatively affect May-September harvests and prolong livelihood recovery.
Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through February and gradually improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) following harvests in March-April. Food security outcomes are likely to improve seasonally with the availability of maize and bean harvests beginning in March-April. However, below-average area planted and crop performance in parts of the Grand South will limit the extent of improvement, and many poor households will continue to face difficulty meeting essential non-food needs. In contrast, better crop production in the Southeast (MG 19) and Southwest Rice and Lima Bean (MG 20) livelihood zones is sustaining Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes throughout the outlook period.
Erratic rainfall and cumulative rainfall deficits earlier in the season are likely to result in below-average harvests in western and southern Madagascar, despite average rainfall forecasts for January-March. Cumulative rainfall deficits of roughly 25-80 percent of the 40-year average in parts of Toliara, Ihosy, and Fort-Dauphin, combined with erratic distribution, are expected to result in highly variable and generally below-average February-May harvests in affected areas, constraining seasonal food availability and agricultural labor income.
Flooding linked to heavy rainfall and the ongoing cyclone season has caused localized disruptions but is not expected to significantly alter area-level acute food insecurity outcomes. According to national disaster management authorities, recent flooding has affected approximately 3,500 people in Antananarivo, 1,500 in Amboasary, and 1,000 in Moramanga, with displacement reported primarily in Antananarivo. Limited flood-related damage to rice fields has been reported in Moramanga District (MG 12). While impacts remain localized and insufficient to change area-level food security outcomes, the likelihood of additional flooding through March could increase risks for poor households in low-lying urban areas and eastern rice-producing zones.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Madagascar Key Message Update January - May 2026: Erratic rains and flood risks likely to drive below-average harvests, 2026.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.