Crop maturation phase arrives amidst below-average and erratic rainfall

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Main-season crops across the Grand South are reaching the maturation phase of development amidst below-average and erratic rainfall. Recent field reports suggest that while rainfall has been nearly sufficient for the cassava crop, maize and sorghum are in poorer condition. Localized reports have surfaced of farmers in the southwest having to replant. As it is the peak lean season, many households must purchase most of their food. Market supplies of cassava, sweet potatoes, fruits, and milk products are adequate though prices are at their seasonal highs. Poor households cannot afford their essential food needs with below-average incomes from agricultural labor and the need to repay debts accrued during the last several years of drought. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely ongoing in part of Toliara II due to localized poor 2022/23 staple crop harvests and security challenges. Ongoing humanitarian food assistance (HFA) is likely to maintain Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in most districts until the main harvest begins between March and April and enables widespread improvements to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.
In the Grand Southeast, rainfall was below average but sufficient for off-season rice production. Ongoing harvests continue to enable most households to meet their minimum food needs and face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes. However, in the most isolated districts of Befotaka, Ikongo, and Nosy Varika, humanitarian assistance will likely support Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes until the main harvest arrives in March. Incomes from agricultural labor and cash crop production remain significantly below average after successive years of weather shocks have eroded wealthier households’ capacities to hire labor and afford wages. To supplement their earnings, poor households are expected to turn to charcoal sales, petty trade, or informal mining. However, increased competition in these sectors is likely to limit potential earnings.
Alvaro, the first named storm of the 2023/24 Southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season, made landfall on Madagascar's southwestern shore in Morombe on January 1st as a severe tropical storm, bringing substantial rain and winds of up to 127 km/hr as it swept eastward across the island. It weakened to a tropical depression as it crossed and exited the eastern coast between Manakara and Mananjary on January 3rd, resulting in 17,000 displacements and 19 fatalities. Nearly half of the country’s regions were directly affected, most notably Haute Matsiatra, Atsimo-Andrefana, Menabe, Ihorombe, and Fitovinany. While there continues to be a decreased likelihood of a cyclone impact, the potential for catastrophic damage persists in the event of an intense cyclone strike.
Due to the ongoing strong El Niño, cumulative precipitation during the rainy season has been below average and erratic, with the most significant deficits in the southwest. As crops enter the development phase with the highest water requirements, close monitoring of rainfall totals and vegetative health will be necessary to assess the severity of impacts on cropping conditions for the 2023/24 main agricultural season.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Madagascar Key Message Update January 2024: Crop maturation phase arrives amidst below-average and erratic rainfall, 2024.

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