Key Message Update

Above-average rainfall brings flooding to many parts of Madagascar

January 2020

January 2020

Map of Projected food security outcomes, October 2019 to January 2020: Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in most of the country, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in the far south: parts of Atsimo Andrefana, Androy, and Anosy; Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in Androy, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the south of Atsimo-Andrefana

February - May 2020

Map of Projected food security outcomes, February to May 2020: Minimal (IPC Phase 1) in most of the country, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in the far south: parts of Atsimo Andrefana, Androy, and Anosy; Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) in Androy, and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the south of Atsimo-Andrefana

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Heavy above-average rainfall has been recorded in the north half of Madagascar leading to the flooding of rice fields in the Central, Western and Northeastern parts of the country. This has destroyed late first season crops that had not yet been harvested and young main season crops that were recently sown. Heavy rains also flooded villages and cut the RN4 that links Antananarivo to the North. According to the national meteorological department, most of the country has received average to above-average rainfall since December 2019, except along the Southwestern coasts.

  • Based on planting dates, water satisfaction requirements are likely to be met, though some only minimally depending on the area of the country. It is not expected that crop conditions for cereals such as maize will decline due to lack of water but flooding conditions in the north are concerning for crop development.

  • Fall Army Worm (FAW) has been observed on maize and sorghum crops in the South. The infestation rate is lower than the previous two years, particularly in areas that have received greater rainfall this year. However, drier areas, such as the districts of Ambovombe and Tsihombe, crops are reported to be more severely affected; in addition, because maize will be in the vegetative stage, and chemical pesticides are either inaccessible or unavailable, there is the possibility of FAW reemergence and amplification in the next few months. While maize and sorghum can regenerate foliar surface if the infestation rate is low enough, in localized Southern areas, negative impacts from FAW on crop production are likely.

  • Staple food access remained stable in most of Madagascar in December 2019 except in Mananjary where prices of rice are increasing atypically. The decrease in availability of dried cassava because of the lean season is leading to seasonally normal price increases in Ambovombe and Tulear II. Staple food prices for commodities such as imported rice and sweet potatoes are lower than last year, which improves market access for poor households both in rural and urban areas. Prices of maize and local rice continue to remain above average.

  • The food security situation has stabilized in the most vulnerable parts of Madagascar despite the ongoing lean season. Most households in Mahafaly Plain: Cassava, Goats and Cattle (MG 23) and in Androy Semi-Arid Cassava, Maize and Livestock (MG 24) remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Nevertheless, some pockets of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are observed inside these zones due to the depletion of staple food stocks and high staple food prices. Other households throughout Madagascar are experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics