Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes likely amid rising transportation costs

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In August, recent and ongoing harvests continue to support Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in the Grand South and Grand Southeast. As the sweet potato and cassava harvests wind down, household stocks will begin to deplete in September or October and households will begin to rely on markets to access food. Given below-average income, many poorer households will be forced to resort to negative coping strategies to meet their food needs. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to persist across the Grand Southeast, but in the Grand South, a deterioration to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is likely in some areas with the progression of the lean season. Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are likely across the rest of the Grand South as significant humanitarian assistance is likely to mitigate worse outcomes. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in the rest of the country through January given cyclone recovery and seasonal improvements in labor opportunities.
Beginning in late July 2024, public transportation fares have increased between 10 and 20 percent in multiple areas of the country. Several national transport cooperatives, including Compagnie Nationale de Transport (CNT) and Express Mada, have also announced fare increases of approximately 15 percent starting in August 2024. This decision is attributed to the progressive deterioration of national roads, specifically RN7, RN2, RN6, and RN4. Local media reports indicate that poor conditions have led to a substantial increase in maintenance costs and fuel consumption, prompting transportation companies to raise their prices to cover these additional expenses. The National Transport Agency (ANT) has also highlighted a significant rise in demand for transportation services during the summer period as a driver for increased rates. In addition, transportation companies responsible for the movement of goods have also reportedly increased rates for similar reasons. Increased transportation costs are likely to somewhat increase food prices in the coming months, particularly in more remote areas, negatively impacting poorer households’ purchasing capacity.
In July, markets across the Grand South and Southeast continued to benefit from recent harvests with prices for cassava and local rice remaining mostly stable across the country month-on-month. While multiple markets showed year-on-year price decreases for dried cassava, significant increases compared to last year have been observed for local rice. Prices for local rice increased between 15 and 25 percent, while imported rice prices – which are also impacted by the continued depreciation of the local currency – increased between 30 and 45 percent year-on-year. In the Grand South, poorer households are continuing to rely on own production to cover their food needs, while in the Grand Southeast, poorer households are beginning to combine their harvest with the purchase of produce on the market given that rice harvests ended in June in most areas.
Although locust activity is typically more likely during the rainy season due to climatic conditions that favor their reproduction and development, multiple districts in southwestern and central regions of the country have seen activity as early as June this year with approximately 270,000 hectares of bean, legume, cassava, and sweet potato crops negatively impacted. In response, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock coordinated a ground treatment operation in July in collaboration with various technical partners and specialized agencies. Despite these efforts, the Madagascar Locust Control Center (IFVM) is estimating a 30 percent increase in locust populations compared to last year, necessitating ongoing monitoring and rapid interventions to contain the infestations and mitigate damage.

Recommended citation: FEWS NET. Madagascar Key Message Update August 2024: Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes likely amid rising transportation costs, 2024.

This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.