Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes expected in some areas despite assistance

• Between October 2024 and January 2025, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are likely in most of the Grand South and Grand Southeast, with worse outcomes mitigated by planned humanitarian assistance. In areas with lower levels of humanitarian assistance – including Bekily, Beloha, and Tsihombe – Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to emerge by November 2024. 
• Weather shocks including erratic rainfall and pest infestations resulted in localized reduced yields in the 2024 maize, root, and tuber harvests and an atypically early depletion of food stocks for affected households. Weather-related damage and years of prior shocks have impacted better-off households that typically hire labor, reducing hiring and driving below-average income-earning opportunities and wage rates. Amid above-average prices, market-dependent poorer households have limited purchasing capacity to meet their food needs. An estimated 1.0 to 1.49 million people will need humanitarian food assistance throughout the outlook period.  
• From February to May 2025, mainly Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are expected to persist through the peak of the lean season. However, food security outcomes are expected to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) across the Grand South and Grand Southeast between April and May following the green and main maize harvests and the main rice harvest. In areas worst affected by previous weather shocks, cropped area and harvests are expected to be below normal for some very poor households, constrained by limited access to seeds and other agricultural inputs without negatively impacting near-average harvest expectations for most regions.
• Areas of highest concern are Bekily, Beloha, and Tsihombe in the Grand South, where relatively lower levels of humanitarian food assistance will be unlikely to mitigate worse outcomes during the lean season. 

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 15, 2024.

Deterioration of food security during lean season

Delayed and erratic rainfall resulted in localized cumulatively below-average rainfall for the 2023/24 agricultural season. With largely below-average maize harvests and localized areas of below-average root and tuber crops, households in parts of the Grand South depleted own-produced food stocks atypically early. In the Grand Southeast, annual rice production was only slightly below normal due to limited access to agricultural inputs for poorer households following multiple years of shocks. In northern, central, and eastern parts of the country, cash crops including vanilla, cloves, pepper, and coffee were damaged by Cyclone Gamane and non-cyclone weather shocks (heavy rains and winds). 

As food stocks deplete atypically early, poorer households in the Grand South and Grand Southeast are forced to rely on markets for food access. Labor demand will generally follow seasonal trends – rising and falling with the cash crop, rice, and maize planting and harvests, but the impacts of previous shocks have reduced both demand and wages. Annual inflation has risen slightly (from 7.2 percent in June to 7.8 percent in August), compounding typical seasonal price increases. As a result, household purchasing capacity, especially for poor households, is constrained in the face of above-average prices and reduced income, limiting access to food on the markets. 

Through March 2025, most poorer households across the Grand South and in parts of the Grand Southeast are likely to rely on a combination of coping strategies and humanitarian food assistance to meet their minimum food needs. In many areas, Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are likely with planned large-scale humanitarian food assistance. However, some areas – including Bekily, Beloha, and Tsihombe in the Grand South – are not expected to receive sufficient assistance to mitigate worse outcomes, leading to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

Anticipated near-average harvests starting in April/May 2025

Most households are expected to prioritize agricultural input purchases, motivated by the favorable seasonal rainfall forecast (Figure 1) and potential for good crop production, leading to mostly average cropped areas and harvests across the country. However, below-normal cropped area and harvests are expected for a portion of the very poor households with limited access to seeds and other agricultural inputs, particularly in areas of the Grand South that were worst-affected by last year’s weather shocks. 

The arrival of green and main maize and legume harvests in the Grand South, and the main rice harvest in most of the rest of the country, are expected to drive widespread and improved outcomes of Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in the Grand South and Grand Southeast by April or May 2025, depending on the specific harvesting calendar. Elsewhere in the country, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are likely to prevail despite higher-than-normal needs in the wake of Cyclone Gamane and above-average and erratic rainfall during the 2023/24 rainfall season given widespread availability of food and abundant livelihood options for most poor households. 

Madagascar boasts significant biodiversity and a multitude of microclimates, offering varied livelihood options for households in most parts of the country. However, the island is very vulnerable to weather shocks, with recurrent droughts and multiple cyclone strikes negatively impacting the island in recent years. The Grand South, particularly southwestern Madagascar, has suffered poor rainfall nearly every year in the last decade, including in the 2023/24 agricultural cycle, while the Grand Southeast has seen flooding and crop and infrastructure damage from cyclones and tropical storms in the past several seasons. 

Throughout the country, rice is the most important staple; however, cassava is the preferred staple in the more arid Grand South and a key source of nutrients for households throughout the year. Sweet potato, maize, and legumes are also integral to diets in the Grand South, while breadfruit and plantains play a larger role in the Grand Southeast. The annual lean season typically lasts from December to March (Figure 2) but varies somewhat by region, depending on their preferred staple. 

Agriculture encompasses most livelihood options for poor and very poor households across the country. Cash crop production drives labor demand across the northern and central districts, as well as in limited districts of the Grand Southeast. Typically, labor demand for cash crops lasts from July through March, with the most relevant crops being vanilla, pepper, cloves, coffee, lychee, cocoa, groundnut, sugar cane, and onions. Although seasonal migration is an important source of income, poor road conditions and the high cost of transportation around the island constrain most poor and very poor households to migration only within their own region, largely preventing southern households from earning relatively higher wages in the north and central parts of the country. In the Grand South and Grand Southeast, local livelihood options include land preparation and harvest for staple crops; crop sales; firewood and charcoal sales; fetching and selling water; making and selling rope and other products from the sisal plant; informal mining; and – in localized areas – the gathering and selling of wild foods. Land preparation and maintenance continues throughout the year at low levels, and the staple harvests include main season rice in May and June; root and tuber crops between July and September; secondary rice in December; and cereals and legumes in March and April. Markets are typically well integrated within the same region – less so nationally – but most regions have frequent roadblocks and are negatively affected by cattle rustling by dahalo bandits.

Historical trends show that acute malnutrition tends to improve between April and September with the arrival of cereal, legume, rice, and root and tuber harvests, then worsen starting in October, which coincides with the annual lean season, when household stock levels are at the minimum and staple food prices seasonally increase. 

Learn more

Follow these links for additional information: 

• Latest Madagascar Food Security Outlook: June 2024 to January 2025
• Latest Madagascar Key Message Update: September 2024
• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology 
• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need 
• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis 
• FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis 

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting outcomes months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is the methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. The starting point for scenario development is a robust analysis of current food security conditions, which is the focus of this section. 

Key guiding principles for FEWS NET’s scenario development process include applying the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assessing acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity is a function of not only hazards (such as a drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to those hazards (for example, the household’s level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both household capacity to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future coping capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET grounds this analysis in a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods, which are the means by which a household meets their basic needs. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

Key hazards 

Weather: 

Delayed and erratic rainfall led to cumulatively below-average rainfall in some areas for the 2023/24 agricultural season. In the northwest and parts of the Grand Southeast, cumulative rainfall totals were more than 300 mm below average, although significant rainfall was still received. On the other hand, in the arid Grand South, broad swaths of the region received less than 500 mm between October 2023 and May 2024, representing between 55 and 85 percent of normal, and localized parts of the Grand Southwest received less than 55 percent of normal rainfall, which also caused below-average soil moisture conditions. In western Madagascar, erratic rainfall and above-average temperatures triggered outbreaks of locusts, while Fall Army Worm was also prevalent in multiple districts, mainly concentrated in the Grand South. Even moving into the dry season, multiple districts in southwestern and central regions of the country have continued to see pest activity as early as June this year with approximately 270,000 hectares of bean, legume, cassava, and sweet potato crops negatively impacted by locust activity. In September, cumulative rainfall of 74 mm, 67.7 mm, and 58.9 mm in the southern districts of Amboasary, Ambovombe, and Tsihombe, respectively, in five days stimulated the locust activity requiring particular attention to locust multiplication. Monitoring and rapid interventions to contain the infestations and mitigate damage are still ongoing.

Crop production: 

Across most of Madagascar, rice, cassava, and sweet potato harvests were near normal. However, areas affected by below-average rainfall and above-average incidence of pests did experience some reductions in yield. In the Grand South, sweet potato and cassava stocks are still available for most households and are likely to last until mid- to late-October. Meanwhile, in worst-affected parts of the Grand Southwest, premature harvesting – a coping strategy following poor maize harvests – and below-average soil moisture conditions constrained cassava and sweet potato development. For some households in these areas, own-produced stock ran out atypically early in September this year. In the Grand Southeast, rice production this year was only slightly below normal given limited access to agricultural inputs for poorer households following multiple years of shocks.  

Cash crops in northern, central, and eastern parts of the country – including vanilla, cloves, pepper, and coffee – were damaged by Cyclone Gamane and this year’s heavy rains and winds. The vanilla campaign began in July while the clove harvest is currently ongoing, with likely reduced yields for both crops as many orchids and trees sustained damage earlier in the year, especially in districts like Maroantsetra, Sambava, Vohemar, Andapa, and Ambilobe. In addition, parts of the Grand Southeast negatively affected by the 2022 and 2023 cyclone seasons are also seeing reduced production this year given the longer-term recovery of some plants. 

Livestock production: 

Herd numbers in the Grand South have been steadily declining in recent years due to recurrent drought and persistent insecurity, despite the region's long-standing reputation as a center for zebu and goat breeding. Many households have sold significant portions of their herds due to concerns about dahalo banditry, while others did so to meet immediate financial needs, particularly during previous drought years. Largely average rainfall and pasture conditions since late 2022 are continuing to drive fair to good livestock body conditions, but livestock are beginning to seasonally deteriorate as ponds and watering holes dry up and the animals must travel longer distances to reach water and sustenance. Livestock prices are currently following seasonal trends, having peaked during the post-harvest period from June to August before gradually declining. 

Off-own-farm sources of income: 

In the Grand Southeast, seasonal labor opportunities are still available, but wages are beginning to reduce seasonally as the lean season approaches. Given the prolonged recovery from previous cyclone strikes, most cash crop labor demand and related income is below average, but roughly similar to last year, whereas cash crop labor demand and income is below normal and below last year in areas worst affected by this year’s Cyclone Gamane. In the Grand South, engagement in water, firewood, or wild food sales, sisal production, and other off-own-farm sources of income is seasonally increasing (even as demand, opportunities, and wages remain below average) as middle and better-off households are less able to hire agricultural labor than in typical years. 

Market supplies: 

Basic food items are available in most parts of the country, but atypically high prices – driven by the depreciation of the Malagasy Ariary (MGA) and above-average transportation costs – are of concern. FEWS NET price data showed a year-on-year increase of 19 percent in the price of local rice in Antananarivo market in August, while the price of imported rice rose 38 percent over the same period. Typically, the price of imported rice helps stabilize local rice prices. However, this year, the devaluation of the local currency, increased transportation costs, and a 53 percent reduction in imports compared to 2023 (due largely to tighter-than-normal international supply from typical trading partners) have diminished the stabilizing effect of imported rice on overall prices. The availability of dried cassava, a staple throughout the Grand South, remains steady, but the quality of the available product is rapidly declining due to poor storage and transportation conditions. Currently, the price of dried cassava is relatively stable, particularly in the Ambovombe market, with some year-on-year decreases, but higher than the five-year average. Over the last several years, continual deterioration of roads during the rainy season with limited repairs between seasons has increased travel times and delayed the delivery of market supplies, particularly in remote areas. Currently, roads are in a worse state than usual for the dry season, making market supplies irregular and reducing food availability for periods of time in some areas.

Household purchasing capacity: 

With stocks nearing depletion or already depleted, poorer households in the Grand South and Grand Southeast are beginning to rely on market purchases. Although labor demand is generally following seasonal trends, rising and falling with the cash crop, rice, maize planting and harvests, the impacts of previous shocks have reduced both demand and labor wages somewhat, negatively impacting household income. In this context, prices remain above average. Overall, inflation has risen slightly from 7.2 percent in June to 7.6 percent in July and to 7.8 percent in August. This is already impacting food prices, which are rising seasonally, and constraining household purchasing capacity and access to food as own-produced stocks run out. 

Humanitarian food assistance – defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher) – may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that information on food assistance is highly variable across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance); see report Annex. In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Other types of assistance (e.g., livelihoods or nutrition assistance; social safety net programs) are incorporated elsewhere in FEWS NET’s broader analysis, as applicable. 

Humanitarian food assistance in October is still seasonally low following the post-harvest period. However, assistance is ongoing at half-rations covering between 1 and 18 percent of the population across several districts in the Grand South and Grand Southeast, without changing their phase classification. Nosy Varika, Ampanihy, Befotaka, and Midongy Atsimo are currently receiving the largest amount of assistance with 10, 11, 14, and 18 percent of their populations targeted, respectively. Food distribution is expected to ramp up in November 2024.

Based on the analysis of food security conditions, FEWS NET then assesses the extent to which households are able to meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change; FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, with a focus on assessing if these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity rather than other non-food-related factors. Ultimately, FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.

The Grand South: 

October marks a critical transition between the end of the harvest and the onset of the lean season. The harvests of cassava and sweet potatoes concluded one to two months ago, while the last maize harvest occurred in April of this year. Districts in the Grand South most affected by erratic and below-average 2024 rainfall, such as Ampanihy, Ambovombe, Amboasary, and Betioky, have experienced below-average harvests. With the implementation of coping strategies and the utilization of remaining resources, most poorer households and areas are likely to be classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in October as they are still accessing their own production but are struggling to meet non-food needs. However, poorer households in worst-affected districts have now run out of food stocks and are reliant on local markets to access food. In response, households are reducing the quantity and quality of meals, opting for cheaper alternatives, reducing the number of meals per day, increasing reliance on wild foods, and mixing in non-preferred foods to make them last longer as they are faced with above-average prices in the market and below-average income. In addition, some households are selling more animals than normal, purchasing food on credit, borrowing food, borrowing money, and increasing engagement in gathering and selling water. Thus, a portion of very poor households who have been worst affected by poor harvests this year and in previous years are likely to already be experiencing food consumption gaps and an atypically early start to the lean season, placing them in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

The Grand Southeast: 

Although the Grand Southeast largely escaped the negative impacts of this year’s tropical storms, the devastation from multiple cyclone strikes over the past several seasons is still evident in below-average income from cash crops; crops continue to recover and somewhat below-average harvests persist as households have struggled to afford adequate agricultural inputs. Food remains widely available on the market, but household access continues to be constrained by below-average purchasing capacity. Most poorer households are able to cover at least a portion of their food needs through their own production, reducing their reliance on markets for now. As a result, most poorer households are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes, as they are able to meet their food needs, but not their essential non-food needs. Worst-affected households in some areas, however, are likely facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes and are employing similar coping strategies to those in use across the Grand South. 

Northern, eastern, and central regions: 

The typical resilience of the northern, eastern, and central regions during the lean season has been undermined this year by Cyclone Gamane’s negative impacts on the production of vanilla and cloves, even as fishing activities begin to resume in October as the sea becomes seasonally suitable to navigate. Many stakeholders are working to rehabilitate districts impacted by recent disasters, focusing on restoring infrastructure like national roads to ensure access, despite rising food prices. This has resulted in an above-average number of households facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in these areas – as losses suffered have reduced their ability to produce food, generate income, and have limited their coping strategies, despite overall Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes at the area level. 

In October, the prevalence of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) across the Grand South and Grand Southeast is broadly ranging between Alert (GAM 5-9.99 percent) and Acceptable (GAM <5 percent) levels following seasonal improvements and increased access to health services and adequate care practices. Findings from the recent SMART survey in August/September 2024 classified Ampanihy and Betioky districts in Acceptable levels with GAM rates of 4.6 percent. However, GAM rates remained elevated in Ifanadiana Befotaka, Nosy Varika, Amboasary, Vondrozo, and Ikongo, with GAM rates just below the upper limit of the Alert level. 

The next step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

National assumptions

• Labor demand and production for cash crops are expected to remain below average due to the negative impacts from multiple years of cyclone strikes on major production areas.
• Headline and food inflation are both expected to remain below 10 percent, despite rising transportation prices. 

Sub-national assumptions for the Grand South

• Cropped area for off-season rice and main season cereals and legumes is likely to be atypically low for some poor and very poor households following poor 2023/24 harvests and persistently constrained access to inputs.
• Livestock herd sizes are likely to remain significantly below average; they have not recovered from distress sales and livestock poverty deaths during the multiple years of drought. Households also continue to sell more livestock than normal to reduce the risk of cattle rustling by dahalo bandits.
• Income is expected to remain below average. Middle and better-off households remain unable to hire agricultural labor at normal rates following years of weather shocks. Anticipated constrained agricultural labor demand is expected to drive higher-than-normal engagement in petty trade, informal mining, charcoal sales, water fetching, and wild food gathering with the progression of the lean season, but incomes are unlikely to improve due to above-average competition and low demand.
• Staple food prices (such as rice, maize, cassava, and sweet potato) are expected to remain above the five-year average (Figure 3). Anticipated seasonal price increases will likely be exacerbated by localized crop losses, below-average harvests, seasonal deterioration of roads, and atypical increases in transportation costs, and price increases are expected to be strongest in isolated and deficit-producing areas. 

• Wild food availability during the lean season is expected to be below average following multiple consecutive droughts and the resulting overexploitation of forests as poor households rely on wild foods to reduce food consumption deficits.

Humanitarian food assistance

National assumption

• Humanitarian food assistance is expected to ramp up as the annual lean season approaches. Between November 2024 and April 2025, over 280,000 households in the Grand South and Grand Southeast are targeted to receive half-rations. Assistance is anticipated to cover 20 to 50 percent of the population in Ambovombe, Amboasary, Ampanihy, Betioky Atsimo, Vangaindrano, Manakara, Ikongo, and Mananjary, while more than 50 percent of the population is targeted in Befotaka, Midongy Atsimo, and Nosy Varika.

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned – and likely to be funded and delivered – food assistance. 

The Grand South: 

Starting in November through the main harvest period, food security is expected to deteriorate in most regions of the Grand South with the gradual increase in prices and below-average agricultural wages, which are likely to erode the purchasing capacity of most poor households. The timely start of the current rainy season between October and December, with average rainfall across Madagascar, will likely increase 2024/25 labor opportunities with the planting of cereals, legumes, and cassava, and localized secondary rice harvests between November and December. However, wages will be below average, as better-off households have limited ability to hire and pay wages following the previous poor season, and many households will also take advantage of the rainfall onset to work on their own fields. As a result, this below-average access to income will likely force low-income households to adopt coping strategies in order to purchase agricultural inputs and to meet their minimum caloric needs. 

However, planned humanitarian food assistance is likely to mitigate outcomes at the area level to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!), notably in Ambovombe, Amboasary, Ampanihy, and Betioky Atsimo, through March 2025. Despite these improvements, households are still likely to increase engagement in petty trade, water and firewood sales, and also employ food-based coping strategies (e.g., reducing the quantity or quality of food, including non-preferred foods to make foods like cassava last longer, and increasing consumption of wild foods). In areas not targeted with significant humanitarian assistance – such as Bekily, Beloha, and Tsihombe – Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to emerge as households experience food consumption gaps or rely on more severe coping strategies such as harvesting green harvests atypically early, consuming seed stock, selling productive assets or more livestock than normal, and skipping meals. 

With the forecasted average rainfall, horticultural activities are likely to begin to provide additional options for households, and green and main harvests are expected to be near or slightly below normal (only negatively affected by household’s limitations on procuring agricultural inputs following multiple previous shocks). By April 2025, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to emerge as households begin to access own-produced stocks, despite the seasonal reductions in humanitarian assistance.

The Grand Southeast:

In the Grand Southeast, the lean season will continue until the main rice harvest in May 2025. However, food availability will recover temporarily between November and December with the off-season rice harvest, household access to income from agricultural labor opportunities associated with the start of land preparation activities, and the arrival of average lychee, mango, and pineapple harvests. In the meantime, households will continue to buy most of their food on the markets despite their constrained purchasing power driven by below-average wages and above-average food prices, especially for households who continue to need to invest in flood and cyclone recovery following previous shocks. Food prices will reach their seasonal peaks before the rice main harvest, particularly in remote and isolated districts; the seasonal deterioration in road conditions, as well as limited train transportation, will disrupt supply flows, leading to higher food prices in remote areas, particularly those prone to cyclones, flooding, and landslides. Poor and very poor households will employ coping strategies such as relying heavily on non-preferred foods, increasing engagement in the sales of cultivated and wild fruits and petty trade, skipping meals, reducing meal size and frequency, purchasing food on credit, and reducing non-food essential expenditures. 

As a result, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are likely to persist in most of the region through December, but Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely to emerge in Ifanadiana from January onwards, where lower levels of humanitarian food assistance are unlikely to be able to avert worse outcomes. Humanitarian assistance is expected to mitigate outcomes in Befotaka, Midongy Atsimo, Manakara, Ikongo, Mananjary, and Nosy Varika districts as the lean season develops. In Befotaka and Midongy Atsimo, coverage is expected to be extremely widespread, allowing for the emergence of Minimal! (IPC Phase 1!) outcomes. Across the Grand Southeast, food access and availability will gradually recover with the main rice harvest starting in May 2025, resuming widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes with some areas in Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

Northern, eastern, and central regions: 

Madagascar's most productive regions, which benefit from easy access to markets and more diverse options for livelihoods, are projected to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes throughout the outlook period, with most households able to sustainably meet their minimum food and non-food needs with diversified sources of income from the sale of cash crops and agricultural labor. However, a proportion of households will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes – with an even smaller proportion in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) – as households become market reliant amid below-average incomes following poor cash crop production, after the depletion of off-season rice stocks by mid-January 2025. 

Across Madagascar, acute malnutrition rates are expected to seasonally deteriorate with the increase in waterborne diseases during the rainy season and decreased food access during the lean season. However, most areas are likely to stay within Acceptable (GAM <5 percent) and Alert (GAM 5 -10 percent) levels, with only the worst-affected areas in the Grand Southeast and the Grand South likely to fall into Serious (GAM 10 -15 percent) ranges. Events that may change projected acute food insecurity outcomes 

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National 

Cyclone strike or severe tropical storm 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Despite a forecasted average cyclone season, a cyclone strike or severe tropical storm would likely cause agricultural losses – depending on the timing, trajectory, and magnitude of the storm – reducing agricultural labor opportunities and own crop production for poorer households in the path of the storm. Additionally, a cyclone would likely cause infrastructure damage and disrupt supply chains, negatively impacting physical access to food in affected areas. Should the island be hit by a cyclone, the number of households experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2), Crisis (IPC Phase 3), or worse outcomes would likely increase in the affected zone. 

The Grand South 

Below-average rainfall during the October 2024 to March 2025 rainy season 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Crop production for maize, legumes, rice, and some cash crops would likely be hindered by below-average rainfall. This would lead to lower-than-anticipated food and income sources for poorer households in affected areas due to reduced demand for agricultural labor, poor crop production and sales, and would also hamper normal improvements of pasture and livestock body conditions that occur with the onset of the rainy season. In worst-affected areas, the number of households experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2), Crisis (IPC Phase 3), or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes would likely increase.