Humanitarian food assistance likely to mitigate outcomes in the Grand South

• Across the Grand South and Grand Southeast, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to prevail between June and September, when needs remain seasonally low. Food and cash crop production is expected to be below average this season throughout the Grand South, the Grand Southeast, and in parts of northern and eastern Madagascar due to weather shocks, such as erratic rainfall in the south, the passage of cyclones in the north and east, and higher instances of pests. Harvests are, however, likely to be better than in previous drought years, supporting improved outcomes during the post-harvest period. 
• Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are expected starting in October with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) likely to emerge in parts of the Grand South where lower levels of humanitarian food assistance are expected. As stocks deplete, households will become progressively reliant on markets to meet their food needs, albeit amid higher-than-normal prices and below-average incomes. An estimated 1 to 1.5 million people will need assistance through January. Humanitarian food assistance is expected to close food consumption gaps and protect livelihoods in most areas of concern, with 280,000 households targeted to receive half rations throughout the lean season in the Grand South and Grand Southeast. 
• Areas of highest concern are Bekily, Beloha, and Tsihombe where assistance levels will be unable to mitigate worse outcomes with the onset of the lean season. Other areas of the Grand South, including Ampanihy, Amboasary, and Ambovombe, are still likely to have populations in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) despite assistance mitigating outcomes to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) in these areas. 
• The forecasted average start of rainfall for the next agricultural season will support the continued recovery of crop and livestock production. However, cropped area across the Grand South and in parts of the Grand Southeast and northern regions is likely to be constrained due to middle and better-off households’ reduced capacity to purchase inputs and demand labor in the wake of multiple shocks in recent years, in turn limiting income-generating opportunities for poorer households.  

Weather shocks continue to drive food assistance needs in Madagascar

After multiple years of drought in the Grand South, recovery remains fragile. While better than in drought years, delayed and erratic rainfall led to cumulatively below-average rainfall for the 2023/24 agricultural season with localized parts of the Grand Southwest receiving less than 55 percent of normal rainfall (Figure 1). This resulted in poor soil moisture conditions developing, with localized areas registering between 66 and 80 percent of normal soil moisture in February.  

Yields for the 2023/24 season remained below average and below last year in many districts, due to a combination of poor rainfall distribution, above-average temperatures, limited access to seed in these areas at the outset of the season, and heightened risks from pests. In some districts, including Betioky, Tsihombe, Ampanihy, Ambovombe, and Ambosary, between 30 and 50 percent of households reported having less than one month of stocks, which is insufficient to last until the next harvest. Although cassava and sweet potato crops have not been as badly affected, below-average soil moisture in the lead-up to the harvest is limiting the ongoing development of these crops. Some households in the Grand Southwest are beginning to harvest some of their root and tuber crops prematurely, risking overall yields. 

Recent and ongoing harvests have seasonally increased most poorer households’ income through both cash and in-kind payments. However, income remains below average in the Grand South and Grand Southeast where middle and better-off households, who typically hire agricultural labor, have been hard hit by shocks in recent years and are demanding less labor than usual. This trend is likely to continue through to the next agricultural season, despite the forecast average start to the rainy season. Households are expected to increase engagement in petty trade, mining, and the sale of charcoal and firewood. In addition, poorer households will continue to employ coping strategies, such as harvesting wild foods, relying on lower-quality or non-preferred food, or taking out loans. 

The Grand South will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) between June and September during the post-harvest period. However, as the lean season begins, household stocks are likely to run out earlier than usual and prices will seasonally rise. Significant humanitarian food assistance, slated to begin across the region in October, will likely mitigate outcomes such that Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes are likely through January in most districts. Nonetheless, a subset of very poor households who saw harvests below last year’s level, especially in Betioky, Tsihombe, Ampanihy, Ambovombe, and Ambosary, are likely to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) as early as September. In parts of the Grand South where assistance is not expected to be significant, including Bekily, Tsihombe, and Beloha, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely at area level.  

Flooding and high winds caused by tropical storms destroyed roads and damaged crops in northern and eastern parts of the country. Tropical cyclone Gamane, which made landfall in SAVA on March 27, flooded nearly 5,000 hectares of rice fields in Maroantsetra, Ambilobe, and Sambava and left heavy silts in more than 650 hectares in the Maroantsetra and Vavantenina districts for weeks after its passage. Damages to rice production were localized, but rice production across the Grand Southeast remains slightly below normal given limited access to agricultural inputs for poorer households following multiple years of shocks. Meanwhile, cash crops in northern, central, and eastern parts of the country, including vanilla, cloves, pepper, and coffee, were damaged by this year’s heavy rains and winds, reducing the quality and quantity of the harvests set to begin in July. In addition, parts of the Grand Southeast negatively affected by the 2022 and 2023 cyclone seasons are also experiencing a reduction in production this year given the slow progressive recovery of some plants. 

Currently, the northern districts of Maroantsetra, Ambilobe, Andapa, and Sambava are facing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes as poorer households are struggling to meet their non-food needs during recovery from cyclone-caused losses and damages. However, they are expected to return to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) from July given the re-opening of roads, upcoming cash crop and secondary rice harvests, and favorable rainfall forecasts. Similarly, in the Grand Southeast, harvests will continue to improve food consumption and incomes allowing for the continued recovery of livelihoods. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in most areas through January, with Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes likely in remote, inland districts where assistance is likely and where additional households continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes.

Learn more

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of June 14, 2024. Follow these links for additional information: 

• Previous Madagascar Food Security Outlook: February to September 2024

• Overview of FEWS NET’s scenario development methodology 

• FEWS NET’s approach to estimating the population in need

• Overview of the IPC and IPC-compatible analysis

• FEWS NET’s approach to humanitarian food assistance analysis

Madagascar boasts significant biodiversity and a multitude of microclimates, offering varied livelihood options for households in most parts of the country. However, the island is very vulnerable to weather shocks, with recurrent droughts and multiple cyclone strikes negatively impacting the island in recent years. The Grand South, particularly southwestern Madagascar, has suffered poor rainfall nearly every year in the last decade, including in the 2023/24 agricultural cycle, while the Grand Southeast has seen flooding and crop and infrastructure damage from cyclones and tropical storms in the past several seasons. 

Throughout the country, rice is the most important staple; however, cassava is the preferred staple in the more arid Grand South and a key source of nutrients for households throughout the year. Sweet potato, maize, and legumes are also integral to diets in the Grand South, while breadfruit and plantains play a larger role in the Grand Southeast. The annual lean season typically lasts from December to March (Figure 2) but varies somewhat region by region, depending on their preferred staple. 

Agriculture encompasses most livelihood options for poor and very poor households across the country.Cash crop production drives labor demand across the northern and central districts as well as in limited districts of the Grand Southeast. Typically, labor demand for cash crops lasts from July through March, with the most relevant crops being vanilla, pepper, cloves, coffee, lychee, cocoa, groundnut, sugar cane, and onions. Although seasonal migration is an important source of income, poor road conditions and the high cost of transportation around the island constrain most poor and very poor households to migration only within their own region, largely preventing southern households from earning relatively higher wages in the north and central parts of the country. In the Grand South and Grand Southeast, local livelihood options include land preparation and harvest for staple crops, crop sales, firewood and charcoal sales, fetching and selling water, making and selling rope and other products from the sisal plant, informal mining, and – in localized areas – the gathering and selling of wild foods. Land preparation and maintenance continues throughout the year at low levels, and the staple harvests include main season rice in May and June; root and tuber crops between July and September; secondary rice in December; and cereals and legumes in March and April. Markets are typically well integrated within the same region – less so nationally – but most regions have frequent roadblocks and are negatively affected by cattle rustling by dahalo bandits.

Historical trends show that acute malnutrition tends to improve between April and September with the arrival of cereal, legume, rice, and root and tuber harvests, then worsen starting in October, which coincides with the annual lean season, when household stock levels are at the minimum and staple food prices seasonally increase.

Early warning of acute food insecurity outcomes requires forecasting outcomes months in advance to provide decision makers with sufficient time to budget, plan, and respond to expected humanitarian crises. However, due to the complex and variable factors that influence acute food insecurity, definitive predictions are impossible. Scenario Development is the methodology that allows FEWS NET to meet decision makers’ needs by developing a “most likely” scenario of the future. The starting point for scenario development is a robust analysis of current food security conditions, which is the focus of this section. 

Key guiding principles for FEWS NET’s scenario development process include applying the Disaster Risk Reduction framework and a livelihoods-based lens to assessing acute food insecurity outcomes. A household’s risk of acute food insecurity is a function of not only hazards (such as a drought) but also the household’s vulnerability to those hazards (for example, the household’s level of dependence on rainfed crop production for food and income) and coping capacity (which considers both household capacity to cope with a given hazard and the use of negative coping strategies that harm future coping capacity). To evaluate these factors, FEWS NET grounds this analysis in a strong foundational understanding of local livelihoods, which are the means by which a household meets their basic needs. FEWS NET’s scenario development process also accounts for the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework; the Four Dimensions of Food Security; and UNICEF’s Nutrition Conceptual Framework, and is closely aligned with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analytical framework.

Key hazards 

Weather: Delayed and erratic rainfall led to cumulatively below-average rainfall for the 2023/24 agricultural season. In the northwest and parts of the Grand Southeast, cumulative rainfall totals were more than 300 mm below average, although significant rainfall was still received. On the other hand, in the arid Grand South, broad swaths of the region received less than 500 mm between October 2023 and May 2024, representing between 55 and 85 percent of normal, and localized parts of the Grand Southwest received less than 55 percent of normal rainfall. In western Madagascar, erratic rainfall and above-average temperatures triggered outbreaks of locusts (Figure 3), while Fall Army Worm was also prevalent in multiple districts, mainly concentrated in the Grand South. 

Meanwhile, below-average rainfall also resulted in poor soil moisture conditions developing across the Grand South (Figure 4). Parts of Androy and Atsimo Andrefana regions registered 66 to 95 percent of normal soil moisture in February, improving only slightly to 81 to 95 percent of normal in May.  

Flooding and high winds caused by tropical storms destroyed roads and damaged crops in northern and eastern parts of the country. Cyclone Gamane, which made landfall in SAVA on March 27, negatively affected 4,968 hectares of agricultural land and temporarily displaced around 22,000 people across the most-affected districts, namely Ambilobe, Sambava and Vohémar.

Crop production: Across most of the country, the rice harvest is ongoing or recently ended, providing a significant seasonal increase in access to food for poorer households through own production. Although tropical cyclone Gamane flooded nearly 5,000 hectares of rice fields in Maroantsetra, Ambilobe, and Sambava and left heavy silts in more than 650 hectares in the Maroantsetra and Vavantenina districts for weeks after its passage, the damages to production were localized. Domestic rice production, which is currently being harvested, is still near normal. In the Grand Southeast, rice production this year is slightly below normal given limited access to agricultural inputs for poorer households following multiple years of shocks. 

Cash crops in northern, central, and eastern parts of the country, including vanilla, cloves, pepper, and coffee, were damaged by this year’s heavy rains and winds, reducing the quality and quantity of the harvests set to begin in July. In addition, parts of the Grand Southeast negatively affected by the 2022 and 2023 cyclone seasons are also seeing reduced production this year given the slow progressive recovery of some plants. Overall, FAO estimates crop losses and damages to total more than 144 million USD with an additional cost of livestock losses and damages of nearly 82 million USD.

In the Grand South, although most crops performed better than in a drought year, yields for the 2023/24 season remained below average and below last year in many districts, with household stocks expected to last between one and five months. A combination of poor rainfall distribution, above-average temperatures, limited access to seed in these areas at the outset of the season, and heightened risks from locusts and Fall Army Worm contributed to this reduction in harvests. Maize and sorghum harvests were harder hit by erratic rainfall, while beans, vegetables, and peanuts were the hardest hit by pests. Although cassava and sweet potato crops have not been as badly affected by the poor rainfall performance, below-average soil moisture in the lead-up to the harvest is limiting the ongoing development of these crops. Some households in areas of the Grand Southwest worst affected by this year’s poor rainfall distribution are beginning to harvest some of their root and tuber crops prematurely given how significantly below average maize and legume crops were this year, although most households will not begin to harvest until July.

Livestock production: In the Grand South, livestock production has gradually reduced, and herd sizes remain below average due to increased desperate sales during previous drought years and increased risk of cattle rustling from dahalo bandits. The winter months typically see lower egg production in poultry and milk production in goats and zebu. However, in some parts of the Grand South, where farmers attempted to sow a second time in April, limited rainfall and below-soil moisture conditions have resulted in poor crop development of this second crop of maize, which livestock owners are purchasing as livestock feed at reduced rates. Livestock body conditions remain fair to good. 

Off-own-farm sources of income: Recent and ongoing harvests of crops have seasonally increased most poorer households’ income through both cash and in-kind payments. However, income remains below average in the Grand South and Grand Southeast where middle and better-off households, who typically hire agricultural labor, have been hard hit by shocks in recent years and are demanding less labor than usual. Petty trade also sees a seasonal increase post-harvest, as vendors take advantage of farmers' harvest income to sell a variety of goods at local markets. In the Grand South, non-agricultural activities are more common during this period in between harvests, including increasing engagement in the sale of charcoal and firewood to meet their needs. However, prices remain low due to buyers' lack of financial means and increased supply, keeping incomes below normal.

Market supplies: Across most of the country, markets are well supplied – except in remote areas of the Grand Southeast, where road conditions continue to hinder regular supply. In June, rice and various types of beans are available on local markets at seasonally low prices. For areas that do not produce rice, seasonal price decreases are not yet evident as buyers and traders have not yet begun transporting it in earnest to deficit-producing areas. In areas where the recent harvest has not yet been released to the market, lower-quality imported rice is currently cheaper than domestic rice. In deficit-producing areas of the Grand South, below-average maize and bean harvests have led to seasonal price declines being less than typical as additional supply has had to be transported long distances from surplus-producing areas. Dried cassava, a main staple in this region, remains available at the market at seasonally high prices prior to the harvest; however, the quality of the remaining cassava on the market is extremely poor.

Household purchasing capacity: In most of the country, market purchases are seasonally low following the harvest as rural households have several months of food stocks. Incomes have just seen seasonal increases – albeit below average – with the harvest period and, for those households who sell a portion of their crops, this trend is continuing. However, poorer households in areas impacted by below-average rainfall, whose food reserves can no longer sustain them until the next harvest, are now dependent on the market again. More broadly, food inflation still sat at 6.3 percent nationally in April and staple foods remain well above last year’s prices, with only slight seasonal declines (Figure 5). As a result, many households, especially those with poor harvests, are struggling with reduced purchasing capacity and below-normal access to food in the months between harvests. 

Humanitarian food assistance—defined as emergency food assistance (in-kind, cash, or voucher)—may play a key role in mitigating the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. FEWS NET analysts always incorporate available information on food assistance, with the caveat that information on food assistance is highly variable across geographies and over time. In line with IPC protocols, FEWS NET uses the best available information to assess where food assistance is “significant” (defined by at least 25 percent of households in a given area receiving at least 25 percent of their caloric requirements through food assistance); see report Annex. In addition, FEWS NET conducts deeper analysis of the likely impacts of food assistance on the severity of outcomes, as detailed in FEWS NET’s guidance on Integrating Humanitarian Food Assistance into Scenario Development. Other types of assistance (e.g., livelihoods or nutrition assistance; social safety net programs) are incorporated elsewhere in FEWS NET’s broader analysis, as applicable. 

Humanitarian food assistance typically follows seasonality in Madagascar, with reductions in assistance during the post-harvest months and an expansion of assistance during the lean season. In June, residual assistance from the lean season or cyclone-relief continues to reach 59,000 households across the country, with 16,000, 13,000, and 11,000 households targeted to receive half-rations in Beloha, Tsihombe, and Vohémar, respectively, and smaller figures elsewhere. In the post-harvest period, this assistance is not changing the phase classification of any receiving district.

Based on the analysis of food security conditions, FEWS NET then assesses the extent to which households are able to meet their minimum caloric needs. This analysis converges evidence of food security conditions with available direct evidence of household-level food consumption and livelihood change; FEWS NET also considers available area-level evidence of nutritional status and mortality, with a focus on assessing if these reflect the physiological impacts of acute food insecurity rather than other non-food-related factors. Ultimately, FEWS NET uses the globally recognized five-phase Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale to classify current acute food insecurity outcomes. In addition, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of ongoing humanitarian food assistance.

The Grand South: June marks a dry and cold period with limited humidity, situated between the maize, sorghum, and beans harvest in March and April and the cassava and sweet potato harvest scheduled from July. The harvests so far this year were broadly below-average across the region, with many poorer households only producing between one and two months of staple grains. In some districts, including Betioky, Tsihombe, Ampanihy, Ambovombe, and Ambosary, between 30 and 50 percent of households reported having less than one month of stocks, which is insufficient to last until the next harvest. Localized parts of the Grand South benefited from short-cycle bean harvests in June, providing additional income for small-scale producers. However, this harvest was also below average given limited access to inputs in recent years. Overall, food products are accessible in local markets, but at prices above last years, which can be unaffordable for poorer households whose incomes remain negatively impacted by lower-than-normal labor demand as better-off households continue to recover from successive drought years. 

To address this situation, poorer households are employing coping strategies, such as harvesting wild foods, relying on lower-quality or non-preferred food, or taking out loans to be repaid with the first cassava or sweet potato harvest. Across the Grand South, districts are therefore classified as Stressed (IPC Phase 2). Nonetheless, a subset of very poor households in the south and southwest who saw harvests below last year’s level, especially in Betioky, Tsihombe, Ampanihy, Ambovombe, and Amboasary, are harvesting some of their cassava and sweet potato harvests earlier than normal, putting overall yields for the season at risk, and are employing more severe coping strategies, resulting in their classification of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) until the root and tuber harvests begin in earnest. 

The Grand Southeast: Although weather and economic shocks in recent years have negatively impacted cropped area and income-generating activities, most of the region has seen a positive recovery. Past damages to crops from previous cyclone strikes reduced cropped area in some areas due to limited access to seed, but production totals and labor demand are near normal for the region. Incomes also remain near-normal with rice harvests nearing completion, although fishing activities are seasonally low during the winter. In June, access to markets seasonally improves as the rainy season ends and the sale of own production also provides income to poorer households. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are widespread as households are able to cover their food needs in the post-harvest period but still struggle to cover other basic needs. In the most remote, inland areas of the Grand Southeast, however, recovery has been much slower, and this harvest season brings households only partial relief. A larger portion of poorer households experienced Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes during the peak of the lean season due to continued poor access to markets and labor opportunities from lingering infrastructure damage and previous harvest losses. Their shift to improved outcomes post-harvest is gradual. Although conditions are improving in June, a portion of very poor households in these areas remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

Northern, eastern, and central regions: These regions have long been recognized for their food security, thanks to their ability to produce staples such as rice and cassava, as well as cash crops such as vanilla, pepper, coffee, and sugar cane. However, the impacts of tropical cyclone Gamane have negatively impacted food production, infrastructure, and cash crops in affected districts. Although immediate humanitarian action was taken directly following the cyclone, livelihoods are expected to take several months, or longer, to recover as middle and better-off households must replace damaged cash crops, negatively impacting the poorer households who rely on off-own-farm labor. Currently, in localized areas where damages were significant, households have seen below-average income-generating opportunities during the harvest and are continuing to divert expenditures to post-cyclone repairs. In this context, some poorer households are likely experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes although area-level outcomes remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1). However, in northern districts worst affected by cyclone Gamane, including Maroantsetra, Ambilobe, Andapa, and Sambava, poorer households are struggling to meet their non-food needs as they continue to recover from cyclone-caused losses and damages, resulting in these districts’ classification as Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 

The next step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to develop evidence-based assumptions about factors that affect food security conditions. This includes hazards and anomalies in food security conditions that will affect the evolution of household food and income during the projection period, as well as factors that may affect nutritional status. FEWS NET also develops assumptions on factors that are expected to behave normally. Together, these assumptions underpin the “most likely” scenario. The sequence of making assumptions is important; primary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to weather) must be developed before secondary assumptions (e.g., expectations pertaining to crop or livestock production). Key assumptions that underpin this analysis, and the key sources of evidence used to develop the assumptions, are listed below.

National assumptions

• Labor demand and production for cash crops are expected to remain below average given multiple years of cyclone strikes in major production areas.

• The start of the 2024/25 rainy season is likely to be average, with localized areas likely to see above-average rainfall in the last quarter of the year. 

• Headline and food inflation have moderated over the last year, and both are likely to remain below 10 percent. 

• Staple food prices – such as for rice, maize, and cassava – are likely to see seasonal increases with the onset of the lean season, amplified by localized losses and below-average harvests. Upward pressure is likely to be highest in deficit-producing and isolated areas of the Grand South and Grand Southeast.     

Subnational assumptions for the Grand South 

• Cassava and sweet potato harvests are likely to be below-average given residual negative soil moisture anomalies in southwestern Madagascar and limited access to inputs. 

• Lower-than-normal cropped area for off-season rice and main-season cereals and legumes is likely following poor 2023/24 harvests and continued limited access to inputs.   

• Livestock herd sizes are likely to remain significantly below average as households sold more livestock than normal during multiple years of drought to raise income for market purchases and continue to do so to reduce the risk of cattle rustling by dahalo bandits.  

• Income is expected to remain below-average. With middle and better-off households still unable to hire at normal rates following years of weather shocks, agricultural labor demand will be dampened throughout the outlook period. Engagement in petty trade, informal mining, charcoal sales, water fetching, and wild food gathering will be higher than normal, but incomes will likely be constrained by competition and low demand. 

Humanitarian food assistance

Humanitarian food assistance is expected to cover a very limited proportion of households for cyclone recovery in Analanjirofo, DIANA, and SAVA regions in the north through July and for drought and cyclone recovery in the Grand South and Grand Southeast through September. Beginning in October, large-scale assistance will begin to ramp up as the annual lean season approaches. Between October 2024 and January 2025, over 280,000 households in the Grand South and Grand Southeast are targeted to receive half-rations. Assistance is anticipated to cover 20 to 50 percent of the population in Ambovombe, Amboasary, Ampanihy, Betioky Atsimo, Vangaindrano, Manakara, Ikongo, and Manajary, while more than 50 percent of the population is targeted in Befotaka, Midongy Atsimo, and Nosy Varika.

Using the key assumptions that underpin the “most likely” scenario, FEWS NET is then able to project acute food insecurity outcomes by assessing the evolution of households’ ability to meet their minimum caloric needs throughout the projection period. Similar to the analysis of current acute food insecurity outcomes, FEWS NET converges expectations of the likely trajectory of household-level food consumption and livelihood change with area-level nutritional status and mortality. FEWS NET then classifies acute food insecurity outcomes using the IPC scale. Lastly, FEWS NET applies the “!” symbol to designate any areas where the mapped IPC Phase would likely be at least one IPC Phase worse without the effects of planned—and likely to be funded and delivered—food assistance. 

Grand South: July marks the beginning of the root and tuber harvest in the Grand South, the most important staples in local diets. In recent years, access to planting material and agricultural inputs has been limited by low income and high prices, reducing cropped area. This year, localized below-average soil moisture has negatively impacted crop development in affected areas while below-average cereal and legume harvests – particularly for areas that saw below-average and erratic rainfall – have forced some households to begin harvesting early, further reducing total yields. However, for the majority of poorer households, cassava and sweet potato stocks are likely to last into September, providing improvements in access to food and increased income for those who sell a portion of their harvest during this time. In addition, food prices will seasonally decline during this period due to increased food supplies and reduced demand at the market, improving household purchasing capacity. Households are likely to prioritize the reimbursement of debts, preparations for the new school year, and agricultural inputs for the next season. Through September, widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to persist. However, those households whose harvests were significantly below average and whose stocks will be exhausted quickly will become dependent on the market again atypically early and may revert to the use of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) coping strategies. 

Between October 2024 to January 2025, households will become progressively more reliant on markets to access food as household stocks begin to deplete. With the expected near-normal onset of rainfall, agricultural labor opportunities will seasonally increase in November and December with the planting for cereals and cassava and with localized secondary rice harvests. However, demand for agricultural labor has not yet rebounded – keeping incomes below normal – and the increase in prices during this period is likely to erode the purchasing capacity of most poorer households. The scale-up of humanitarian food assistance in October is likely to mitigate worse outcomes in most of the Grand South, leading to Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes in most districts. However, in Tsihombe, Beloha, and Bekily, coverage is expected to be insufficient to mitigate outcomes as very poor households without access to humanitarian food assistance continue to face food consumption gaps by reducing portion sizes or meal frequency or employing unsustainable coping strategies in order to mitigate those gaps. These districts are therefore likely to fall into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) starting in October.

Grand Southeast: Flooding and crop damage from heavy rains in 2023/24 and cyclone strokes in previous years have reduced cropped area and yields in localized parts of the Grand Southeast. Nonetheless, the main rice harvest followed by cash crops harvests will continue to improve food consumption and incomes through the sale of own production for most poorer household. This will allow them to continue recovering from flood losses, prepare for the next agricultural season, and cover most food although not all non-food needs. Between June and September, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected in most areas, although a portion of poor households will likely continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, particularly in remote districts. Despite the depletion of food stocks for some households, cash crop incomes in November accompanied by the off-season rice harvest in December and January will maintain widespread Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in much of the Grand Southeast from October 2024 to January 2025. In remote, inland districts, where recent shocks have been relatively worse and seasonal deteriorations are typically more severe, outcomes are likely to be mitigated by significant humanitarian assistance, resulting in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes. 

Northern, eastern, and central regions: Starting in July, a seasonal increase in agricultural labor demand for the harvest of cash crops will improve incomes and access to food for poorer households throughout most of the country. Although labor demand is likely to be below average in parts of the north – including DIANA, SAVA, and Analanjirofo where heavy rainfall and cyclone impacts earlier in 2024 negatively impacted not only vanilla, which is the main source of household income in these regions, but also on other cash crops like coffee, cloves, pepper – seasonal improvements are still expected to result in a return to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes at area level. Nevertheless, some households who suffered significant crop or livestock losses during the passage of Gamane are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the outlook period as their livelihoods remain deteriorated and they must rely on sustainable coping strategies to meet their basic food needs. The lean season is not anticipated to begin in the northern, eastern, and central regions until early 2025 given the availability of main and secondary rice crops and seasonally high labor demand through November or December, keeping these regions in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through January. 

While FEWS NET’s projections are considered the “most likely” scenario, there is always a degree of uncertainty in the assumptions that underpin the scenario. This means food security conditions and their impacts on acute food security may evolve differently than projected. FEWS NET issues monthly updates to its projections, but decision makers need advance information about this uncertainty and an explanation of why things may turn out differently than projected. As such, the final step in FEWS NET’s scenario development process is to briefly identify key events that would result in a credible alternative scenario and significantly change the projected outcomes. FEWS NET only considers scenarios that have a reasonable chance of occurrence.

National

Event: Cyclone strike 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: A cyclone strike would likely cause agricultural losses – depending on the timing, trajectory, and magnitude of the storm – reducing agricultural labor opportunities and own crop production for poorer households in the path of the storm. Additionally, a cyclone would likely cause infrastructure damage and disrupt supply chains, negatively impacting physical access to food in affected areas. Should the island be hit by a cyclone, the number of households experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2), Crisis (IPC Phase 3), or worse outcomes would likely increase in the affected zone. 

Grand South 

Event: Below-average rainfall during the October to March rainy season 

Likely impact on acute food insecurity outcomes: Crop production for maize, legumes, rice, and some cash crops would likely be hindered by below-average rainfall. This would lead to lower-than-anticipated food and income sources for poorer households in affected areas due to reduced demand for agricultural labor, poor crop production and sales, and less improvement than normal of pasture and livestock body conditions with the onset of the rainy season. In worst-affected areas, the number of households experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2), Crisis (IPC Phase 3), or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes would likely increase.