Food Security Outlook Update

Severe 2021 lean season outcomes with minimal improvement expected from harvest

April 2021

April - May 2021

June - September 2021

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Food security outcomes during the 2021 lean season have been severe in southern Madagascar, with widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In several districts the presence of humanitarian food assistance has prevented more severe area-level outcomes. Screening data suggests acute malnutrition increased notably during the January-March peak of the lean season. Although area-level Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are not anticipated in the presence of ongoing humanitarian food assistance, it is likely that some households in most districts are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, and in Ambovombe and Amboasary, it is anticipated that a small number of worst-affected households are likely experiencing food consumption gaps in line with Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) outcomes. 

  • Although harvests and increased labor opportunities will support some seasonal food security improvements between June and September, food assistance needs will remain high throughout the projection period, as both of these food/income sources will provide below-average levels of food and cash income. Food assistance, estimated at a half-ration in April/May, is currently a key food source for many worst-affected households and will not be distributed after June, according to available information. Widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes will persist between June and September, and some populations will likely be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

  • Outside of southern Madagascar, Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are likely through September, supported by  the main harvest of rice and near-average food prices. However, some poor households are likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), particularly in the capital, due to loss of income from the economic decline associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases increased 65 percent between mid-March and the end of April; deaths increased 79 percent over the same period, leading the government to set tighter restrictions, particularly in Antananarivo. Renewed implementation of restrictions in the capital will limit income sources for poorest households working mainly in the transport and tourism sectors, hotel and restaurants, and odd jobs, negatively impacting their food access. Inter-regional travel to and from the capital is banned, leading to increased food prices. A curfew is in place on weekdays, and a total lockdown is in effect on the weekends.  As of the end of April, the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Madagascar is around 37,000, with 650 deaths.

About this Update

This monthly report covers current conditions as well as changes to the projected outlook for food insecurity in this country. It updates FEWS NET’s quarterly Food Security Outlook. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on approximately 30 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, USGS, and CHC-UCSB, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica.
Learn more About Us.

Link to United States Agency for International Development (USAID)Link to the United States Geological Survey's (USGS) FEWS NET Data PortalLink to U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Link to National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth ObservatoryLink to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service, Climage Prediction CenterLink to the Climate Hazards Center - UC Santa BarbaraLink to KimetricaLink to Chemonics